Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight at all terminals,
tracking from WNW to ESE in multiple rounds. Have attempted to
time out the storms, but after 06z, the confidence in timing is
greatly reduced. Behind the line, models persist in holding on to
some llvl clouds through the morning...before breaking into mostly
cirrus through mid morning as the trailing stratiform rain slowly
moves out of the region. By mid morning, should be back to VFR in
all terminals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tomorrow: A significant severe weather event is
expected to unfold across the ArkLaMiss this evening and lasting
through early Saturday morning. Models are in a good agreement
with the placement of the system and we are confident that there
will be multiple rounds of QLCS(squall line storms). The first
round will be this evening starting around 5-6pm or so and this
line of storms will mainly effect areas in the west and north of
I-20 where some super cells may occur. An unusual cold air mass
within the mid and upper levels with these earlier storms,
support large hail(baseball and greater) along with gusty winds as
we peak with daytime heating. Straight lined winds with these
storms could exceed 80mph. The second round will start later
tonight around 10-11pm and will continue through the overnight
hours and lasting until about 5am Saturday morning. With the
second round of storms, the environment will be a tad bit cooler
making any severe potential supportive of all modes including,
hail, strong winds, and a few tornados.

Although the tornado threat is not the greatest threat with these
storms, this is still April and we are in peak severe weather season
for central Mississippi so a few tornadoes will still be possible.
Especially across the MS Delta with those earlier storms(first
round).

The next potential impact will be flash flooding. Excessive rainfall
appears to be more likely in the evening and early over night hours
along the instability gradient. At least 2-5 inches of rain is
possible for most areas in our CWA with possible locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding will be possible along with the possibility
of some minor river flooding.

With all that being said, a 'Moderate Risk' threat has been placed
for much our entire outlook area for tonight and part of early
Saturday. As far as timing an exit for these storms, by Saturday
afternoon, areas in the west will be clear while locations east of I-
55 will have some lingering showers. We expect the severe threat to
be over around 5am Saturday but again, showers will still be
lingering across the east during the early afternoon as the system
ejects east. By late afternoon, the region should be clear from rain
and the rest of Saturday will be pleasant. High temperatures will
range from the low 70s in the north to upper 70s in the south and
even around 80 degrees in the Pine Belt region./JNE/

Saturday night through Thursday: By Saturday evening the nearly
stacked low will be lifting northeast of the mid Mississippi valley
with its associated cold front southeast of or CWA but broad upper
level troughing will take until Sunday to shift east of Mississippi.
Despite upper level troughing aloft a weak surface high will shift
over our CWA through Sunday helping provide dry weather. In the wake
of the cold front Sunday morning will start of cooler than normal in
upper 40s to lower 50s but a return to warmer than normal
temperatures is expected through Monday night. The dry weather will
come to an end by late Monday afternoon as rain chances begin
increasing from the southwest ahead of and approaching cold front
driven by another nearly stacked low moving over the Great Lakes
region from the northern Plains. Although rain chances will increase
through Tuesday ahead of the cold front, this cold front will lose
its upper level support and stall across the CWA Tuesday night.
Models differ on how far south into our CWA the front will stall but
a disturbance moving through the region Wednesday will help the front
drift south of our CWA by Wednesday evening. Provided the cold front
does move south of our CWA by Thursday, a drier forecast will be in
store but, consensus currently maintains rain chances and cooler
temperatures across our CWA through Thursday night. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  77  50  77 /  99  58   2   0
Meridian      62  79  50  77 /  94  85   4   0
Vicksburg     64  77  50  79 /  97  35   1   0
Hattiesburg   64  81  53  79 /  92  91   7   0
Natchez       64  78  50  79 /  98  45   2   0
Greenville    63  73  50  76 /  97  24   0   0
Greenwood     63  74  49  76 /  96  46   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
331 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>059-061>066-
072>074-102045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
331 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

The rest of today through tonight, a significant severe weather
event will unfold across the ArkLaMiss region. A few severe
storms capable of producing large hail to the size of baseballs
could develop initially this late afternoon, but expect the most
widespread storms later tonight. A large thunderstorm system
moving across the area after midnight could bring widespread wind
gusts of up to 80 mph and a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Given the expectation for multiple storms in some locations, there
could be a threat for heavy rainfall producing localized flash
flooding, especially tonight when storms will be more widespread.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-102045-
Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-
331 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

The rest of today through tonight, a significant severe weather
event will unfold across the ArkLaMiss region. A few severe
storms capable of producing large hail to the size of baseballs
could develop initially this late afternoon, but expect the most
widespread storms later tonight. A large thunderstorm system
moving across the area after midnight could bring widespread wind
gusts of up to 80 mph and a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Given the expectation for multiple storms in some locations, there
could be a threat for heavy rainfall producing localized flash
flooding, especially tonight when storms will be more widespread.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1213 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     HAIL             1 NNE NEWTON            32.34N 89.15W
04/10/2021  E0.70 INCH       NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 80 WEST OF NEWTON.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1217 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N TRANSYLVANIA        32.72N 91.18W
04/09/2021                   EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUPLE POWER LINES DOWN ON 65 SOUTH.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1218 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             1 N NEWTON              32.33N 89.16W
04/10/2021  E0.70 INCH       NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEST OF NEWTON ON HWY 80.

&&

AJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

MSZ051-052-057-058-100600-
Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN
NEWTON...CLARKE AND WESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1228 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Meehan to 6 miles northwest of
Stonewall to near Barnett. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Stonewall and Suqualena around 1235 AM CDT.
  Nellieburg and Savoy around 1240 AM CDT.
  Meridian around 1245 AM CDT.
  Sable around 1250 AM CDT.
  Quitman, Marion, De Soto, Middleton and Zero around 1255 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Pachuta, Shubuta and
Chunky.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3185 8864 3183 8876 3182 8908 3217 8896
      3251 8897 3258 8867 3258 8862 3221 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 263DEG 28KT 3239 8889 3219 8888 3198 8896

NF