Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Jackson, MS

189 
WWUS54 KJAN 251913
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
213 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

MSC087-251923-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-210325T1930Z/
Lowndes MS-
213 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LOWNDES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3329 8831 3329 8867 3331 8867 3352 8856
      3355 8853 3353 8849 3353 8847 3356 8850
      3360 8847 3362 8851 3366 8849 3367 8842
      3369 8839 3369 8837 3372 8833 3374 8833
      3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 216DEG 30KT 3370 8821 

$$

GRG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
The potential for severe storms will persist at TAF sites through
the remainder of this afternoon, but will steadily come to an end
during the early evening. Gusty southerly winds will also persist
during this time, but will subside while becoming more northerly
tonight into early Friday morning. In the meantime, a mix of
VFR/MVFR flight categories will be observed at TAF sites across
the region through Friday morning, as a result of varying ceilings
across the region through the forecast period. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The potential for a significant severe weather event remains the
top story across the forecast area, and other parts of the Deep
South, today. A compact but strong mid/upper level trough will
quickly eject northeast from the southern plains into the Mid-
South and Mid-Mississippi River Vally through the course of the
day. While this will send a cold front east through the region
later this evening, it'll initially send a pre-frontal trough
through the forecast area early this afternoon into early this
evening. This pre-frontal trough, traversing an environment where
instability is forecast to be 2500-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 50-70
knots of deep-layer shear, 300-500 m^2/s^2 0-3 km SRH, mid-level
lapse rates in the in the 7-8 C/km range, and all during peak
heating hours, will set the stage for today's potential outbreak.

There's currently a capping inversion present over the area, noted
on the KJAN 12Z RAOB. This is aiding in the overall lull in
convection across the CWA at the moment.  However, noted gravity
waves traversing through the region, in addition to the expected pre-
frontal trough moving into the region around mid-day, will both help
to erode the cap over much of the forecast area.  Thus, allowing
severe storms to ignite across the area during the afternoon hours.
The only exception to this will be in the south, where the capping
inversion will be tougher to override.

The overall coverage of convection today, isn't really expected to
be all encompassing across the CWA like we typically experience with
severe weather episodes.  The current thinking is that there will
roughly be a handful, maybe a few more, of storms that develop and
are able to tap into this dynamically fueled environment this
afternoon.  Those that develop and are able to accomplish this feat,
will quickly evolve into fast northeast moving supercells. These
storms in particular will be capable of producing strong to
potentially violent long-tracked tornadoes, extreme winds greater
than 80 mph, and destructive hail up to baseball size.  The best
potential for such storms currently continues to look to be across
the northeast portions of the forecast area.  That said, severe
storms are still possible outside of this "High Risk" area, with
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all possible with these
storms.

Residents across the CWA, as well as the Deep South in general, need
to actively monitor NOAA Weather Radio, along with local radio and
television stations throughout today, to keep abreast of the latest
weather and watch/warning information.  Please have a plan of action
in place now, so in the event a warning is issued for your county or
parish, you know what to do and where to take shelter immediately.

Outside of the severe weather threat for today, gusty southerly
winds will exist across the area.  As a result, a Wind Advisory is
in effect until 7 PM today.  Sustained winds between 20-30 mph, with
gusts from 35-45 mph will be possible throughout the course of the
day.

Overall the ongoing forecast for today is in good shape.  Some minor
adjustments were made earlier to the hourly grids based on current
observation and radar trends.  Otherwise, no major changes will
be made on this morning's update. /19/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...

Conditions are still on track for a significant severe weather and
tornado outbreak across the Deep South today with a high risk now in
effect for portions of the area. Residents across the Deep South
NEED to prepare for significant weather today, including the very
real potential for violent, long track tornadoes. They need to have
a plan in place NOW which includes having multiple ways to get
warning information and where to take shelter should a tornado
warning be issued for their location. This will be a serious and
dangerous situation across not only portions of our forecast area,
but the many locations in the Deep South that already saw
significant weather just a week ago.

In the immediate term, rain and storms have been progressively
moving north this morning as a warm front lifts north from the
coast. A 50kt low level jet has helped to send mid-60s dewpoints
into the region roughly south of I-20, while to the north, dewpoints
are in the lower 60s. Through the course of the morning, dewpoints
will steadily rise into the mid to upper 60s across much of the
forecast area with some lower 70s dewpoints across the south and
portions of central and east Mississippi. Convection overnight has
been mostly tame and elevated with a few strong to isolated severe
storms and this activity will continue to progress into north
Mississippi and Tennessee through the morning. As this occurs, a
surface low will develop, deepen and track northeast across central
Texas into southwest Arkansas by daybreak. In addition, an upper
level trough will continue to dig south across the Oklahoma and
Texas panhandles and take on a negative tilt as it tracks into the
Mid-West through the day today. As this occurs, a pre-frontal trough
will enter the forecast area by late morning. This will combine with
ample instability and shear across the region to help initiate
convection. Severe weather parameters are significant across the
region with 2500-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 300-500 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, 7-8.5
C/km mid-level lapse rates, 27-31C vertical totals and 60-70kts of
deep layer shear.

The expectation is, and numerous hi-res guidance models confirm
this, that as supercells develop by late morning/around noon across
portions of west central to central Mississippi(say roughly the I-55
corridor or just to the south and west of this), they will track
quickly to the northeast and encounter this extremely favorable
environment for development/intensification. While there is a threat
for severe weather everywhere, the very best potential for violent
weather will reside from roughly Grenada to Carthage to De Kalb and
east. This is where a high risk has now been issued for potential of
strong to violent long track tornadoes, as well as destructive hail
and extremely damaging winds. A moderate risk remains in place for
portions of the Delta just east of Cleveland to the Jackson metro
area to Clarke County. Significant severe weather is expected in
these locations as well. There remains a gradient from northeast to
southwest where capping will likely become more of hindrance in
storm development. Unlike the weather situation last week, there
seems to be little worry about storm mode for this situation as
guidance and model parameters all indicate that the bulk of this
will be supercells racing to the northeast across the region. By
late afternoon/early evening, a thin line of storms likely
associated with the front itself, will move through the region. All
storm activity looks to be east by 03Z at the latest, but it is
likely this will be much sooner and closer to 00Z.

In addition to major severe weather threat, there remains some risk
of flooding. With ample moisture across the region, particularly the
east, which is characterized by PW values around 1.9 inches and
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There could be an
additional 1-3 inches of rain in a short amount of time. While
storms are expected to be very fast moving, repeated storms may pose
a limited flooding risk and will keep mention of this in the east
for today. Previous flash flood watch has been canceled for the Pine
Belt with the bulk of the precipitation moving out of that region
this morning and a more limited risk for flooding today.

Also of note, gusty southerly winds will occur today outside of
storms. Inherited Wind Advisory seems reasonable for now as
sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 45mph will be possible
ahead of and outside of convection.

Once storms exit the region later tonight, conditions will vastly
improve. Breezy conditions will continue but skies will begin to
clear and drier air will move into the region(with dewpoints into
the 50s through the night). Overnight lows will range from the upper
40s and around 50 degrees in the northwest to the upper 50s in the
southeast. /28/

Friday through next Wednesday...

Late week-weekend (Friday-Sunday): In the wake of the severe weather
outbreak Thursday, anomalous plume of southwesterly flow will
persist over a lingering baroclinic zone. Shortwave trough will
gradually cutoff over the Desert Southwest, with persistent mean
subtropical ridging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. With the
mean ridge amplifying into the weekend, a warm front will gradually
advect back northward. WAA prior will keep highs similar to Thursday
in the mid-upper 70s. A spoke of upper jet energy & diffluent flow
will swing through the ArkLaTex/Ozarks & into the mid-
South/ArkLaMiss Delta into late Friday night through Saturday. Due
to this, bulk shear aloft will persist around 40-60kts, with some
elevated instability/vertical totals into upper 20s, mid-level lapse
rates around 7 deg C. & sufficient low-level moistening. Rain &
storm chances will begin to pick up after midnight & increase in
coverage & severity closer to daybreak in the NW Delta & north of I-
20. Further south, increasing ridging & less deep moisture may limit
storm coverage early before more potential exists later into
Saturday. Due to this, kept the "Marginal" Risk for isolated severe
hail/wind but expanded slightly further SW into northeast LA &
southeast AR. This threat will persist through the day Saturday as
WAA & thermal profiles warm highs into the low-mid 80s. Continued
moistening boundary layer will increase destabilization & better
coverage & severity developing convection. Some severe storms are
possible across the previous "Marginal" risk area with increasing
coverage of severe storms across the far NW Delta closer to the
surface boundary.

As increasing PVA drives the mean longwave trough & cold front east
through the Great Lakes & into the northeast, this will help rain &
storm chances to finally sweep southeast. Highs will generally be
lower into the 70s, with lessening destabilization. Some boundary
parallel bulk shear could support some stronger to isolated severe
storms, but less sufficient juxtaposition of destabilization &
sufficient shear will coincide through the day Sunday. However,
can't rule this scenario out at this time. For now, will hold off
any mention in the HWO/graphics. Expect these higher rain & storm
chances to finally sweep southeast & mostly out of the area into
Sunday night, with cooler lows that night into the mid-upper 40s for
areas north of I-20 to low 50s to the south.

Early-mid next week (next Monday-Wednesday): Rain & storm chances
become murky into next week. Some question marks are how quickly the
eventual cutoff low ejects & if the wave becomes more dampened & not
as deep as the Euro. Due to this, some gradual increasing WAA & rain
& storm chances are possible, but some spatial & temporal
uncertainties on wave amplitude remain. Slight chances of rain &
storm look to persist into middle of next week, but spatial &
temporal details depend on strength & amplitude of shortwave trough
like the Euro/GEM. The Euro/GEM scenario could also bring back some
strong-isolated severe storm chances, but confidence remains lower
at this time. Rain & storm chances will increase ahead of another
mean trough & cold front by next Wednesday & through the end of the
period. This will help rain & storm chances become more scattered
before a drier & cooler airmass move in. With increasing clouds &
coverage of rain, lows will be above normal into the low 60s next
Tuesday night before cool advection moves in the wake of the front
next Wednesday night. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  50  78  64 /  88  15   6  26
Meridian      77  52  77  63 /  87  41   8  22
Vicksburg     80  50  78  64 /  71   7   4  27
Hattiesburg   79  58  78  65 /  83  31  17   9
Natchez       80  51  78  66 /  68   7   7  15
Greenville    78  50  72  59 /  82   9   0  44
Greenwood     78  50  75  61 /  92  17   1  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>059-
     061>066-072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ009-016.

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.

&&

19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

ARZ074-LAZ007-015-023>026-MSZ060-261100-
Ashley-Morehouse-Richland-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
Adams-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce quarter to golf ball
size hail and damaging winds.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds of 20 to 25 mph and wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible for
portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana,
north-central and northeast Mississippi Friday night through
Saturday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail up to
quarter to golf ball size are possible. Timing looks to be mainly
after 3AM Saturday through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Friday night through Saturday night.

ARZ075-LAZ009-016-MSZ018-034-040-041-047-053-054-261100-
Chicot-East Carroll-Madison LA-Bolivar-Washington-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Warren-Claiborne-Copiah-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
likely with some possibly strong. Some thunderstorms may produce
damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, some downed trees and power lines are possible, due to
sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and potential for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible for
portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana,
north-central and northeast Mississippi Friday night through
Saturday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail up to
quarter to golf ball size are possible. Timing looks to be mainly
after 3AM Saturday through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Friday night through Saturday night.

MSZ019-025>027-035-036-042-048-261100-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Humphreys-Holmes-Yazoo-Hinds-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, significant severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are likely with strong long-track tornadoes possible.
Some thunderstorms could also produce damaging winds up to 80 mph
and large hail larger than golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, some downed trees and power lines are possible, due to
sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and potential for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible for
portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana,
north-central and northeast Mississippi Friday night through
Saturday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail up to
quarter to golf ball size are possible. Timing looks to be mainly
after 3AM Saturday through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Friday night through Saturday night.

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-261100-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...High
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, significant severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are likely with strong to violent long-track tornadoes
possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce extreme wind
gusts greater than 80 mph and destructive hail up to baseball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, an additional one to three inches of rain in a short
amount of time could result in localized flash flooding,
particularly in low-lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, some downed trees and power lines are possible, due to
sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and potential for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible for
portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana,
north-central and northeast Mississippi Friday night through
Saturday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail up to
quarter to golf ball size are possible. Timing looks to be mainly
after 3AM Saturday through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Friday night through Saturday night.

LAZ008-261100-
West Carroll-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
likely with some possibly strong. Some thunderstorms may produce
damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds of 20 to 25 mph and wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible for
portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana,
north-central and northeast Mississippi Friday night through
Saturday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail up to
quarter to golf ball size are possible. Timing looks to be mainly
after 3AM Saturday through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Friday night through Saturday night.

MSZ043-049>052-056>058-261100-
Madison MS-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, significant severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are likely with strong long-track tornadoes possible.
Some thunderstorms could also produce damaging winds up to 80 mph
and large hail larger than golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, an additional one to three inches of rain in a short
amount of time could result in localized flash flooding,
particularly in low-lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, some downed trees and power lines are possible, due to
sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and potential for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ059-061-261100-
Jefferson-Franklin MS-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce quarter to golf ball
size hail and damaging winds.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, some downed trees and power lines are possible, due to
sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and potential for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ055-063>066-261100-
Simpson-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
likely with some possibly strong. Some thunderstorms may produce
damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, an additional one to three inches of rain in a short
amount of time could result in localized flash flooding,
particularly in low-lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, some downed trees and power lines are possible, due to
sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and potential for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ062-072>074-261100-
Lincoln-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
553 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce quarter to golf ball
size hail and damaging winds.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, an additional one to three inches of rain in a short
amount of time could result in localized flash flooding,
particularly in low-lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, some downed trees and power lines are possible, due to
sustained winds ranging from 20 to 30 mph and potential for wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

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NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
108 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     HAIL             1 N ROSEBUD             32.66N 89.39W
03/25/2021  E1.75 INCH       LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            BETWEEN STANDING PINE AND MADDEN.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ROSEBUD             32.67N 89.39W
03/25/2021                   LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            SIDING BLOWN OFF A HOUSE BETWEEN STANDING
            PINE AND MADDEN.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
118 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHIT ALFORD RD          32.70N 89.50W
03/25/2021                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF TREE DOWN.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
121 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ROSEBUD            32.64N 89.38W
03/25/2021                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON MS 487 E.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             MADDEN                  32.68N 89.35W
03/25/2021  E1.75 INCH       LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA POST.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     HAIL             1 NNW WALNUT GROVE      32.60N 89.46W
03/25/2021  E1.75 INCH       LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA POST.

&&

AJ