Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Showers and storms will continue through the evening. Dry and warm
conditions are expected over the weekend with highs in the 80s by
Sunday. The next chance of rain then arrives late Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Pesky upper low finally being absorbed into mean westerlies and
lifting NE of our area. Upper low center currently just to our NW
and supporting some SCT showers/storms given marginal diurnal
instability amid partly sunny skies. Instability will remain on the
meager side though with dewpoints only in low/mid 60s and poor
midlevel lapse rates. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis indicates 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE supportive of a few thunderstorms but severe weather is not
expected. Coverage will likely remain on the scattered side given
overall poor synoptic forcing but will become more numerous during
late afternoon/early evening as primary vort lobe rotates through.
Isolated heavy rain is possible but not expecting any significant
impacts. A few funnel clouds are also possible given potential for
vorticity stretching in this environment but not anticipating a
tornado threat given limited shear/helicity. Showers will gradually
diminish through the late evening as upper low lifts NE and diurnal
instability is lost. Isolated showers could persist (especially in
our N/NE zones) well into the overnight though until vort max fully
clears.

Saturday is expected to be primarily dry as AVA/subsidence build in
the wake of departing low. However...still can't rule out an
isolated shower in our N/NE where some residual moisture and
cyclonic flow will reside. Increasing sun and WAA will support highs
climbing into the upper 70s/near 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

WAA really ramps up Sat night into Sun. Isentropic ascent could
support a few isolated showers once again mainly in our north but
will hold with silent 10 PoP given limited moisture and overall weak
forcing. Though we likely will not mix that high...interesting to
note 850mb temps climb to around 20C...which is around record
territory for regional upper air climatology. More conservative
mixing depths around 875-900mb under partly cloudy skies gives us
highs in the mid 80s. This is close to record territory (especially
for SBN which is only 85). Similar highs on Mon but clouds increase
late in afternoon as next front approaches and will likely shave a
few degrees off max temps.

Potent trough ejects out of the southwest CONUS and swings through
the Great Lakes late Monday. Good CVA and moisture associated with
this wave and worthy of high PoP's given generally low spread among
ensemble guidance. Thunderstorms also possible but instability
appears too low to support a severe threat...especially given
primarily overnight timing. Quiet weather Tue/Wed but another
trough/front arrives later in the week. Temps holding above average
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Broad upper level low continues to open up and drift north through
the forecast period. Convection forms during the late afternoon
and lingers into early evening tonight. Patchy fog/drizzle is
expected over NW Ohio and into MI...may be a brief period of
MVFR/IFR vsby at the terminals and have opted to keep that out of
the terminals for now.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Lewis

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
451 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-090900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
451 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 /351 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-090900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
451 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1004 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE HELMER            41.52N 85.13W
10/08/2021  E2.42 INCH       DE KALB            IN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN FOR STORM
            TOTAL NEAR STORY LAKE/HUDSON, IN.

&&

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
132 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

INZ003-012-081915-
La Porte IN-Starke IN-
132 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Starke and
southwestern La Porte Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Knox, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Knox.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 8683 4135 8685 4142 8667 4122 8653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 253DEG 8KT 4130 8673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
244 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

INZ003-004-081930-
La Porte IN-St. Joseph IN-
244 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern St.
Joseph and east central La Porte Counties through 330 PM EDT/230 PM
CDT/...

At 243 PM EDT/143 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near North Liberty, or 10 miles east of La Porte, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern St.
Joseph and east central La Porte Counties, including the following
locations... Fish Lake, Lydick, Chain-o-lakes and Crumstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4152 8657 4163 8660 4173 8638 4162 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 240DEG 22KT 4161 8650

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

INZ018-026-027-OHZ024-081945-
Adams IN-Wells IN-Allen IN-Van Wert OH-
308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Allen,
east central Wells, northern Adams and west central Van Wert Counties
through 345 PM EDT...

At 307 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Decatur, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Allen, east central Wells, northern Adams and west central Van Wert
Counties, including the following locations... Preble, Magley,
Tocsin, Hoagland, Craigville, Middlebury, Rivare, Peterson, Monmouth
and Curryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 8498 4081 8514 4100 8499 4083 8471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 214DEG 22KT 4082 8499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     FLOOD            1 WNW AUBURN            41.37N 85.07W
10/08/2021                   DE KALB            IN   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLOOD REPORT FROM AUBURN.
            STREET FLOODING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 7TH
            STREET AND GRANDSTAFF DRIVE REPORTED VIA
            TWITTER.

&&

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
329 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

INZ012-014-015-082015-
Marshall IN-Fulton IN-Starke IN-
329 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Fulton,
southeastern Starke and Marshall Counties through 415 PM EDT/315 PM
CDT/...

At 328 PM EDT/228 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Culver, or 9 miles southwest of Plymouth, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Argos around 340 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Plymouth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 8638 4148 8635 4133 8606 4111 8633
      4121 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 213DEG 23KT 4123 8641

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCD