Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
332 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

A warm and humid airmass will support periodic showers and storms
through Thursday with the best chances during the late afternoon and
evening each day. Isolated damaging winds and localized heavy rain
are possible. Cooler and less humid conditions return for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Storms have initiated along a weak surface trough that extends
from near Detroit southwest into central Illinois, therefore
directly through the middle of the local forecast area. Severe
weather has not been reported, and if any stronger storms do
develop, the biggest threats will be heavy rain, isolated damaging
wind, or small hail. There is ample low level instability with
substantial moisture and heating today supporting an MLCAPE over
2000 J/kg, but there is a lack of upper level support with 850 mb
winds only around 20 kts and the jet stream well to the northwest.
So any severe storms will be isolated. Convection is expected to
die down again overnight and the surface convergence zone will
shift south as the upper trough to the north finally starts to
dig into the Great lakes. This will become the focus for storms
to develop on Wednesday afternoon, which should also be sub-
severe due to weak shear.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

The upper trough continues to dig Wednesday night, and surface
high pressure builds in. Low-level moisture will remain high,
especially since there has been so much rain, and surface winds
will become light under the inversion, so patchy for will be
possible. The surface boundary will also remain near the area,
but continue its slow progression southward, so there could still
be some showers. Then on Thursday the flow shifts to the northwest
with the passage of the trough axis and cold front. This pushes
convection even farther south, although there still may be some
lingering across the southeast corner of the cwa. Cooler and drier
air will funnel in behind this front, and by Friday highs will
only be in the mid 70s.

The upper low will rotate through the eastern Great Lakes on
Friday, cut across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, and eject
northeastward on Sunday. In it's wake, high pressure ridging will
build in from the west. There could be a few lingering showers
across the east on Friday and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm,
but then Saturday and the 4th of July should be dry. The high will
allow temps to warm back up during this period, but only into the
low 80s for the holiday. It will rise back into the mid 80s on
Monday and Tuesday. The ridge is also expected to flatten on
Tuesday with a shortwave moving through, and we could again see
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Sctd convection has been firing across the region this aftn in a
moist and unstable airmass. A somewhat diffuse bndry from cntrl IL
newd into MI will help to focus storms into the evening period
though most are expected to remain below severe criteria. This
activity will dissipate around after sunset with loss of daytime
heating. Expect mainly MVFR cigs at KSBN while remaining VFR at
KFWA except for a brief period this aftn. Winds will be variable
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD/Cobb
SHORT TERM...Cobb
LONG TERM...Cobb
AVIATION...MF

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
333 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-301945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
333 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 /233 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
There is a chance for isolated damaging winds and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periodic thunderstorms will continue through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-301945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
333 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periodic thunderstorms will continue through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             2 NE WALLEN             41.18N 85.13W
06/29/2021  M0.70 INCH       ALLEN              IN   PUBLIC

&&

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
449 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

INZ007-MIZ081-OHZ001-292130-
Steuben-Hillsdale-Williams-
449 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STEUBEN...SOUTHWESTERN
HILLSDALE AND NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES...

At 448 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Angola, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Fremont around 500 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Camden, York,
Alvarado, Montgomery, Pleasant Lake, Nettle Lake, Ray, Crooked Lake,
Hamilton Lake and Columbia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 345 and 355.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 156.
 Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 7.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 8466 4153 8500 4153 8503 4169 8510
      4176 8492 4176 8483 4180 8483 4186 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 244DEG 30KT 4163 8501

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...55MPH

JBALL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
528 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATERLOO                41.43N 85.03W
06/29/2021  M59 MPH          DE KALB            IN   STORM CHASER

            MEASURED VIA WEATHER STATION.

&&

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
457 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

INZ003-012-292245-
La Porte-Starke-
457 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL STARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN
LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 457 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near La Crosse, or
near Dunns Bridge, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  La Crosse around 605 PM EDT.
  Wanatah around 615 PM EDT.
  Kingsford Heights and Hamlet around 640 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Thomaston, Lomax,
English Lake, Haskell, South Wanatah, Hanna, Brems, Tracy, Union
Mills and Kingsbury.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 8693 4157 8674 4135 8655 4120 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 234DEG 21KT 4130 8694

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...50MPH

JBALL