Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
719 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 706 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

A warm and humid airmass will support periodic showers and storms
through Thursday with the best chances during the late afternoon and
evening each day. Isolated damaging winds and localized heavy rain
are possible. Heat index values will be in the mid to upper 90s
today. Cooler and less humid conditions return for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Today is anticipated to be an almost exact replica of yesterday.
Overall setup remains the same with large subtropical ridge to our
southeast and old frontal zone draped across our NW. Shortwave
trough will sweep through the northern lakes and this may support a
slight uptick in coverage but unlikely to have much effect this far
south. We will once again hover in SCT-NUM coverage during peak
heating. MLCAPE's once again climb to around 1500 J/kg but better
flow/shear is displaced to the northwest. An isolated wet microburst
and/or heavy rain will be the primary concerns. Coverage is expected
to be too low for a flash flood watch though it is possible some
stronger storms may develop over waterlogged NW zones and generate
an isolated flooding threat. Other item of note is that highs in
mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in low 70s will yield heat indices in
the mid/upper 90s similar to yesterday. The hottest conditions will
be in our SE. Convection expected to wane with the loss of daytime
heating but isolated storms will be possible through the night given
moisture-rich airmass (similar to current period).

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Wed and Thu will be transition days as much stronger trough begins
to dig into the Great Lakes and finally shunt moist airmass
southward. This will be a slow process though with low level flow
gradually veering and slowly advecting lower theta-e into the area.
Meanwhile...a series of shortwaves will ripple along this baroclinic
zone as it shifts south. So, additional convection will be possible
everywhere Wed and in at least our SE Thu. The severe threat appears
low (but not zero) each day. There is a slight increase in midlevel
flow (particularly by Thu) but this also corresponds to a loss of
better low level moisture/instability. At this juncture, it appears
we never get a favorable colocation of the two...keeping any severe
threat low and isolated. Again damaging winds and heavy rain are the
primary concerns.

We finally break out of this pattern in time for the holiday
weekend. Unfortunately models still struggling with track and
placement of potential upper low. Ensemble members still show
substantial spread though ensemble mean is still a little further
east than deterministic GFS. New ECMWF and Canadian are aligned
pretty closely with GFS though in showing upper low settling into
Ohio. This would support a slightly cloudier forecast with some low-
end shower chances focused mainly in the afternoon and mainly in our
eastern zones. Temps and dewpoints still much cooler though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 706 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the TAF sites, with MVFR
conditions limited to within heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, just like we've had the past few days, expect
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity through the
afternoon/evening hours. Return to VFR conditions overnight, with
BR potential at KSBN again-though given it hasn't formed the last
two mornings, it may not develop at all so left it out of TAF for
now.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MCD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
423 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-300830-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
423 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 /323 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
There is a chance for isolated damaging winds and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periodic thunderstorms will continue through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-300830-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
423 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periodic thunderstorms will continue through Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1116 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

MIZ079-291545-
St. Joseph-
1116 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY...

At 1116 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Schoolcraft,
or near Three Rivers, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flowerfield, Mendon, Moore Park, Fishers Lake and Howardsville.

&&

LAT...LON 4204 8529 4196 8571 4203 8576 4207 8576
      4207 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 243DEG 31KT 4203 8566

HAIL...0.25
WIND...40MPH

RTC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1229 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

MIZ080-291715-
Branch-
1229 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BRANCH COUNTY...

At 1228 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bronson, or 9
miles southwest of Coldwater, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quincy, Kinderhook, California, Gilead, Marble Lake, Lake Of The
Woods and Coldwater Lake.

This includes Interstate 69 in Michigan between mile markers 3 and
11.

&&

LAT...LON 4179 8516 4186 8517 4196 8483 4178 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 260DEG 12KT 4182 8511

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

RTC