Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
658 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Widely scattered convection is developing across northern Indiana
into east central Illinois, near an outflow or differential
heating boundary. Expecting scattered convection to continue
developing for the rest of the afternoon hours as the boundary
interacts with an unstable air mass. Will keep chance PoPs going
for the rest of the afternoon, with the highest PoPs over the west
central through northern zones closest to the boundary.

It appears there may be a better threat for organized convection
towards and after sunset, as a mid level area of vorticity,
currently over northeast Missouri, is progged by the short term
models, to move through the area. Will increase the PoPs this
evening, as a result.

Lapse rates and deep layer shear not particularly favorable for
severe storms at this time, but deep layer shear may become enhanced
locally later this afternoon and evening, due to the approach and
passage of the vorticity center. Based on this, stronger convection
may produce high winds, along with heavy rainfall, due to the high
precipitable waters.

Will keep PoPs high overnight, but precipitation may tend to
diminish by the early morning hours of Friday, as the mid level
feature passes off to the east.

The forecast for Friday and Friday night is a little murky at this
time, and will be dependent on how far south the effective boundary
will be pushed by tonight's activity. Some of the finer scale models
shove this boundary near or south of the Ohio River by Friday
morning, while the actual front may not make it into the southern
zones until Saturday morning. In addition, some of the models
suggest a surface wave may develop nearby Friday night, which may
serve to push the outflow boundary back north and slow the front
down as well. For now, will keep PoPs rather high for both Friday
and Friday night.

If the surface wave does come to fruition, deep layer shear and low
level helicity may be enhanced across the area, particularly Friday
night. High precipitable waters suggest heavy rainfall potential
will continue into Friday night.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Second lobe of the upper trough will pivot southeast across central
likely on Sunday. Meanwhile, the cold front looks like it will move
southeast across central Indiana on Saturday and south of the Ohio
River by Saturday night. As the front moves southeast, precipitable
water values will come down a bit but still be near 1.5 inches,
especially over southeastern sections, closer to the front. Although
instability will drop off, especially over northwestern sections, it
looks there will still be enough instability around for
thunderstorms on Saturday.

Look for the convection to end or at least to decrease in coverage
from northwest to southeast Saturday night as the front moves to the
southeast. That said, lobe of the upper trough moving through on
Sunday may generate a wave along the front and allowing for
thunderstorms once again on Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and
mainly near and south of Interstate 70. Do not expect enough rain
will fall over a widespread enough area to add to contribute to any
further potential flood issues.

Should see mostly dry and seasonable weather next week as a ridge
builds over the west which will bring a dry northwest flow to
central Indiana. That said, anytime there is northwest flow over the
area this time of year, there has to be some concern for ridge
riding storm complexes. So, will keep an eye out for that,
especially later in the work week. Afternoon temperatures do not
look like they will stray too far from normal with highs mostly in
the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(160000Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 657 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

IMPACTS:
- Thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the terminals through
about 160800Z.
- Areas of MVFR ceiling may develop by the pre dawn hours of Friday.
- Surface winds 200-220 degrees at 6-10 kts tonight.

DISCUSSION: Radar indicates scattered convection across the area.
Thunderstorm coverage expected to increase over the next few hours,
as a mid level vorticity center, currently moving through Illinois,
crosses the local area. Brief IFR visibility restrictions and gusty
shifting winds in and near convection. Convective threat expected to
diminish by the early morning hours of Friday, as the mid level
feature passes off to the east. CB bases 030-040.

Short term model data suggest lower MVFR ceilings, 012-025, may
develop over the terminals by the pre dawn hours of Friday, in the
wake of the mid level feature.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short Term...JAS
Long Term...Koch
Aviation...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
327 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-161000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
327 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight. Strong or
severe storms may be possible from late this afternoon through
tonight. Locally heavy rain and lightning will also be possible with
any storm through the period. Flooding could develop in areas that
see repeated storms and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected again from Friday through Sunday. A few
strong or severe storms may be possible late in the day Friday and
Friday night. Periodic heavy rain and lightning will also be
possible with any storms Friday. Flooding could develop in areas that
see repeated storms and heavy rain Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
648 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

INZ039-040-048-049-056-057-152330-
Rush-Henry-Madison-Shelby-Hancock-Hamilton-
648 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MADISON...
CENTRAL SHELBY...HANCOCK...RUSH...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON COUNTIES...

At 647 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Fishers to near Greenfield to near
Shelbyville to 12 miles southeast of Franklin. Movement was east at
40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Fishers, Noblesville, Lawrence, Greenfield, Rushville,
McCordsville, Pendleton, Fortville, Ingalls, Knightstown, New
Palestine, Morristown, St. Paul, Carthage, Spiceland, Shirley,
Markleville, Kennard and Wilkinson.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 between mile markers 207 and 220.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 96 and 121.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 109 and 123.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3946 8543 3945 8563 3943 8563 3939 8590
      3956 8582 3987 8595 3987 8594 3993 8594
      3993 8597 4003 8601 4003 8553 3974 8538
      3958 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 263DEG 34KT 3998 8592 3972 8580 3956 8574 3939
8586

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
730 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

INZ028-160000-
Warren-
730 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

At 730 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rossville, or
16 miles north of Danville, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Village, Rainsville, Tab and Pence.

LAT...LON 4048 8752 4047 8709 4037 8709 4027 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 252DEG 39KT 4038 8756

AU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N PLAINFIELD          39.71N 86.39W
07/15/2021                   HENDRICKS          IN   PUBLIC

            4 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH SNAPPED OFF
            TRUNK.

&&

AU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
757 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S AVON                39.74N 86.39W
07/15/2021                   HENDRICKS          IN   PUBLIC

            TREE OR TREES DOWN AND A TRAMPOLINE BADLY
            DAMAGED AS IT WAS BLOWN INTO THE STREET.
            TIME APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
806 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

INZ042-160030-
Randolph-
806 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 806 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Winchester, or 16 miles north of Centerville, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Lynn and Modoc.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4001 8511 4022 8519 4022 8481 4001 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 266DEG 39KT 4006 8501

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
811 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

INZ021-028-029-160100-
Warren-Tippecanoe-Carroll-
811 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN CARROLL...
NORTHERN TIPPECANOE AND NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 811 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Kentland to 6 miles northeast of
Oxford to 10 miles southwest of West Lafayette. Movement was east at
40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Delphi, Shadeland, Battle Ground, Yeoman
and Purdue University.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 172 and 184.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4072 8665 4048 8651 4034 8709 4037 8709
      4034 8713 4048 8721 4048 8709 4056 8709
      4056 8677 4066 8677 4068 8674 4068 8676
      4074 8675 4074 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 251DEG 34KT 4074 8738 4060 8717 4034 8704

Ryan