Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
721 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed across much of central
Indiana this afternoon, and expect this activity to continue and
perhaps expand/intensify a bit through late afternoon. Activity
should decrease significantly overnight, with most guidance keeping
the bulk of the overnight convection northwest nearest the boundary
and the upper level support in ongoing broad southwest flow aloft.

Bulk shear is minimal across the area this afternoon, confined to a
narrow corridor near the front, so aside from any quick pulse
storms, severe threat is minimal.

Monday looks to be mostly a rinse and repeat of today, although with
the upper trough finally beginning to make some eastward progress,
more activity may stick around into the overnight hours tomorrow
night. Weak shear will again limit any severe threat to pulse storms
at most.

High precipitable water values and seasonably high freezing levels
will continue to combine to produce high precipitation efficiency
and an attendant heavy rain/isolated flood threat along with the
pulse severe threat.

Blend temperatures looked a bit warm tomorrow given temps in recent
days and little change in airmass, but blend is near persistence on
the overnights which is reasonable until frontal passage.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

An upper trough will gradually dig into the area mid to late week.
This will allow the front to gradually move through central Indiana
during that period. This will result in a continuation of PoPs
during the week.

The highest PoPs look to be in the Wednesday and Thursday time
frame, with the surface front in the area. Will go likely or higher
PoPs during this time all areas. Tuesday remains a little in
question on how high to go with PoPs as an upper high might hang on
enough to keep chances down.

High precipitable water values through at least mid-week will keep
the threat for locally heavy rain around. Moisture decreases some by
later Thursday into Friday as the front exits to the south and the
upper trough digs in.

Models continue to differ on the evolution of the upper pattern for
the end of the week into the weekend, especially where an upper low
will develop. There is no clear trend at the moment, so confidence
in PoPs this weekend is very low. Will keep some low PoPs going to
account for solutions with the upper low across the area.

Temperatures will cool to below normal values by late week into the
weekend as the warm and humid airmass is pushed out of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

IMPACTS:

* Scattered showers thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Best
  chances for TS at KLAF.

* Southwest winds 7-10 KT.

* Chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms tomorrow

DISCUSSION: Broad southwest flow continues across the area, with a
warm and unstable airmass in place. Scattered thunderstorms are
moving across west-central Indiana, and will be a threat at KLAF
and KHUF through the late evening hours. TS at KBMG and KIND do
remain a possibility this evening, but the liklihood is not high
enough to include within this issuance. Will add tempo groups
within updates if threat becomes greater. Scattered thunderstorms
will once again intiate tomorrow afternoon, affecting all sites.

Conditions will be primarily VFR, with brief MVFR to IFR conditions
possible in storms.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short Term...Nield
Long Term...50
Aviation...Updike

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
327 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-281930-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
327 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected, primarily through the
evening hours, although a few storms may linger overnight. Isolated
strong to severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out through this
evening, with damaging winds, heavy rain, and localized flooding the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the week. Storms will produce heavy rainfall and may be strong at
times with gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
903 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ030-037>039-280145-
Clinton-Tipton-Boone-Hamilton-
903 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLINTON...BOONE...
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTIES...

At 903 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lebanon, or 16
miles south of Frankfort, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Lebanon, Whitestown, Sheridan, Thorntown, Kirklin,
Michigantown, Kempton and Ulen.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 131 and 154.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4014 8607 3992 8641 3992 8649 4016 8669
      4041 8635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 218DEG 27KT 4005 8648

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
925 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ035-043-044-051-280200-
Fountain-Parke-Vermillion-Vigo-
925 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL VIGO...SOUTH
CENTRAL FOUNTAIN...PARKE AND SOUTHERN VERMILLION COUNTIES...

At 924 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Clinton, or 18
miles north of Terre Haute, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Rockville, Newport, Fairview Park, Montezuma, Rosedale,
Kingman, Universal, Mecca, Bloomingdale, Marshall, Shepardsville,
Turkey Run State Park, Yeddo, North Terre Haute and Judson.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4008 8732 3989 8709 3987 8709 3987 8706
      3983 8701 3981 8701 3959 8728 3953 8737
      3969 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 224DEG 25KT 3974 8735

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ031-280200-
Howard-
937 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HOWARD COUNTY...

At 937 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Kokomo, moving
east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kokomo, Greentown and Indian Heights.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4056 8586 4044 8586 4040 8611 4041 8614
      4050 8615 4056 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 254DEG 16KT 4045 8608

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     INDIANAPOLIS INT'L AIRP 39.72N 86.29W
06/27/2021  M59 MPH          MARION             IN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND MEASUREMENT OF 51 KTS AT THE KIND ASOS.

&&

AU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
940 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ038-039-280215-
Tipton-Hamilton-
940 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HAMILTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTIES...

At 940 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Zionsville to near
Carmel. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield, Cicero, Arcadia, Atlanta and
Morse Reservoir.

This includes Interstate 69 between mile markers 205 and 206.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4031 8595 4016 8586 4004 8586 3993 8605
      3993 8618 4005 8624 4010 8624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 212DEG 27KT 4007 8619 3990 8613

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1014 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ038>040-280245-
Tipton-Madison-Hamilton-
1014 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MADISON...NORTH CENTRAL
HAMILTON AND EASTERN TIPTON COUNTIES...

At 1014 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Windfall, or
15 miles southwest of Fairmount, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elwood, Tipton, Windfall, Arcadia, Summitville and Atlanta.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4038 8586 4038 8560 4036 8558 4035 8558
      4015 8601 4031 8609 4041 8596 4041 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 229DEG 26KT 4032 8591

CP