Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
402 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning ahead of a
cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. A drier and cooler
airmass will spread into the region this afternoon into tonight.
Dry and seasonable conditions will then continue into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area this
morning are mainly organized within two broad southwest to
northeast lines. In continued southwest low level southwest
flow, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s across
much of our area with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
This has allowed for some lower end ML capes to develop across
our area with values up close to 500 J/kg across our far
southwest and we should continue to destabilize a bit more
across our area through daybreak. With impressive wind fields
in place, this will help keep the severe threat going for the
next few hours. Pcpn chances will continue across our area until
the cold front moves east through late morning. Good CAA will
develop as the front moves through and this will allow for some
of the 35-40 knot 925 mph winds to mix down to the surface later
this morning into this afternoon. Went ahead and expanded the
wind advisory a tier or two counties farther south to account
for this.

Some brief clearing may develop right behind the front, but we
should cu back up fairly quickly in the developing CAA and wrap
around moisture. Highs will occur this morning with temperatures
then falling through this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee
Valley tonight into Sunday. This will lead to clearing skies
and decreasing winds tonight with mostly sunny skies expected
for Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s with highs on
Sunday in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Extended period begins
with high pressure extending over the Ohio Valley from the lower
Mississippi Valley Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will be
above normal with highs reaching the lower 50s.

The flow becomes persistently out of the south through mid-week as
mid-level ridging builds directly over the Ohio Valley and shortwave
energy ejects up the back side of the ridge from the central Rockies
into western Ontario. Outside of a chance of rain associated with
some of this weak energy Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, dry
weather should continue.

The next cold front approaches the region on Thursday as the ridge
is nudged a bit to the east. There is some uncertainty as to whether
the front clears the area to the south, so have continued a chance
of rain into Friday.

Above normal temperatures will be the rule in the latter half of the
extended period as afternoon temperatures peak in the low 60s by
Wednesday and Thursday and the mid 40s to low 50s on Friday behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strengthening 70+ knot low level jet will shift east across
the region through daybreak ahead of an approaching strong
cold front. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to
continue to fill in across the region over the next several
hours. IFR cigs across the area should gradually lift into MVFR
through daybreak but IFR and lower conditions can still be
expected in the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

Pcpn will taper off from the west through mid to late morning
as the cold front moves east through the area. As it does,
winds will become westerly and increase through the day. West
winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be
possible. In the CAA, MVFR cigs will linger through the
afternoon.

High pressure will build into the region tonight, leading to
clearing skies and decreasing winds.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051-052-056.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hogue
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ064-065-070-071-073-074-077>082-088-
121100-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-
Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
417 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning. A
few strong to severe storms are likely, with damaging winds being
the primary threat. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall is expected with any training thunderstorm activity.
Some localized flooding will be possible this morning in the most
persistent storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation will be needed this morning.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-072-121100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Clinton-
417 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning. A
few strong to severe storms are likely, with damaging winds being
the primary threat. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall is expected with any training thunderstorm activity.
Some localized flooding will be possible this morning in the most
persistent storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation will be needed this morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND GST     KI95 KENTON APT         40.61N 83.64W
12/11/2021  M46 MPH          HARDIN             OH   AWOS

&&

JEG

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