Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
402 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning ahead of a
cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. A drier and cooler
airmass will spread into the region this afternoon into tonight.
Dry and seasonable conditions will then continue into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area this
morning are mainly organized within two broad southwest to
northeast lines. In continued southwest low level southwest
flow, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s across
much of our area with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
This has allowed for some lower end ML capes to develop across
our area with values up close to 500 J/kg across our far
southwest and we should continue to destabilize a bit more
across our area through daybreak. With impressive wind fields
in place, this will help keep the severe threat going for the
next few hours. Pcpn chances will continue across our area until
the cold front moves east through late morning. Good CAA will
develop as the front moves through and this will allow for some
of the 35-40 knot 925 mph winds to mix down to the surface later
this morning into this afternoon. Went ahead and expanded the
wind advisory a tier or two counties farther south to account
for this.

Some brief clearing may develop right behind the front, but we
should cu back up fairly quickly in the developing CAA and wrap
around moisture. Highs will occur this morning with temperatures
then falling through this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee
Valley tonight into Sunday. This will lead to clearing skies
and decreasing winds tonight with mostly sunny skies expected
for Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s with highs on
Sunday in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Extended period begins
with high pressure extending over the Ohio Valley from the lower
Mississippi Valley Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will be
above normal with highs reaching the lower 50s.

The flow becomes persistently out of the south through mid-week as
mid-level ridging builds directly over the Ohio Valley and shortwave
energy ejects up the back side of the ridge from the central Rockies
into western Ontario. Outside of a chance of rain associated with
some of this weak energy Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, dry
weather should continue.

The next cold front approaches the region on Thursday as the ridge
is nudged a bit to the east. There is some uncertainty as to whether
the front clears the area to the south, so have continued a chance
of rain into Friday.

Above normal temperatures will be the rule in the latter half of the
extended period as afternoon temperatures peak in the low 60s by
Wednesday and Thursday and the mid 40s to low 50s on Friday behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strengthening 70+ knot low level jet will shift east across
the region through daybreak ahead of an approaching strong
cold front. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to
continue to fill in across the region over the next several
hours. IFR cigs across the area should gradually lift into MVFR
through daybreak but IFR and lower conditions can still be
expected in the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

Pcpn will taper off from the west through mid to late morning
as the cold front moves east through the area. As it does,
winds will become westerly and increase through the day. West
winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be
possible. In the CAA, MVFR cigs will linger through the
afternoon.

High pressure will build into the region tonight, leading to
clearing skies and decreasing winds.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051-052-056.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hogue
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
906 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021

KYZ100-OHZ053>055-063>065-073-074-081-082-088-120200-
Lewis-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-
Hocking-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
906 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. A few strong to
severe storms are likely late tonight, with damaging winds being the
primary threat. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall is expected with any training thunderstorm activity.
Some localized flooding will be possible in the most persistent
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few strong to severe storms are likely early Saturday morning.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat, although an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

Windy conditions are expected on Saturday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ060>062-070>072-077>080-
120200-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
906 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio, Southwest
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. A few strong to
severe storms are likely tonight, with damaging winds being the
primary threat. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall is expected with any training thunderstorm activity.
Some localized flooding will be possible in the most persistent
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Windy conditions are expected on Saturday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-056-120200-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Licking-
906 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. A few
strong to severe storms will be likely late tonight, with damaging
straight-line wind being the primary threat. A tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall is expected with any training thunderstorm activity.
Some localized flooding will be possible in the most persistent
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A few strong to severe storms may be possible Saturday morning in
central Ohio. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, although an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
327 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

OHZ035-043-110900-
Auglaize OH-Shelby OH-
327 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SHELBY AND
AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM EST...

At 327 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located over St. Marys,
moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Fort Shawnee, New Bremen, Minster,
Cridersville, Anna, Jackson Center, Botkins, New Knoxville,
Waynesfield, Moulton, Buckland, Uniopolis, Kettlersville, Fryburg,
Montra, Egypt, St. Johns and Bulkhead.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 101 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for west central
Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 8411 4064 8388 4054 8388 4054 8399
      4048 8400 4042 8400 4036 8445 4062 8446
      4066 8422 4066 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 258DEG 52KT 4053 8443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
340 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

INZ050-058-059-110915-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Wayne IN-
340 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WAYNE, NORTHWESTERN
UNION AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH 415 AM
EST...

At 340 AM EST, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Hagerstown to Rushville, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Connersville, Centerville, Cambridge City, Hagerstown,
Fountain City, Dublin, Glenwood, Franklin, Waterloo, Bunker Hill,
Abington, Brownsville, Greens Fork, East Germantown, Spring Grove,
Bethel, Economy, Mount Auburn and Whitewater.

This includes I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 134 and 155.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for east central
Indiana...and west central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 8530 3979 8522 3987 8522 3987 8520
      4000 8520 4000 8481 3980 8482 3964 8498
      3959 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 252DEG 42KT 3998 8508 3962 8547

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

OHZ043-051-110915-
Shelby OH-Miami OH-
347 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SHELBY AND NORTHERN
MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM EST...

At 347 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Versailles,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Piqua, Covington, Newport, Bradford, Anna, Fort Loramie,
Jackson Center, Hardin, Russia, Fletcher, Port Jefferson, Lockington,
Montra, Polo, Newbern, Maplewood, Pemberton, Bloomer and Lake Loramie
State Park.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 81 and 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for west central
Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 8400 4014 8403 4011 8443 4038 8443
      4038 8434 4039 8434 4046 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 259DEG 40KT 4025 8443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
356 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ADA                 40.73N 83.82W
12/11/2021                   HARDIN             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF AND HALF A BUILDING COLLAPSED. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JEG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

OHZ042-060-110930-
Darke OH-Preble OH-
359 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PREBLE AND
DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM EST...

At 359 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Madison,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Versailles, Arcanum, Bradford, New Paris, New Madison,
Webster, Wayne Lakes, Gettysburg, Eldorado, Verona, West Manchester,
Pitsburg, Hollansburg, Gordon, Palestine, Ithaca, Castine, Union
Corners and Darke County Airport.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EST for west central
Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 8481 4023 8444 3992 8443 3992 8448
      3989 8448 3982 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 254DEG 47KT 4004 8480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
407 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

OHZ026-044-110945-
Logan OH-Hardin OH-
407 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOGAN AND
HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM EST...

At 407 AM EST, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Kenton to near Russells Point, moving northeast
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kenton, Russells Point, Belle Center, Chippewa Park, Northwood,
Roundhead, Mount Victory, Rushsylvania, Huntsville, Ridgeway,
Patterson, Grant, Silver Creek, Jumbo, Pfeiffer, Walton, Hepburn,
Mentzer, Bloom Center and Big Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 8350 4070 8344 4069 8344 4069 8342
      4051 8342 4050 8345 4050 8352 4048 8352
      4036 8399 4066 8380 4079 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 0907Z 243DEG 53KT 4067 8372 4042 8391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos