Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few days
ahead of a cold front. This front will move to our south by
Saturday but a few showers could linger. Rain chances will be
minimal Sunday and Monday and then ramp up with the next front
on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A residual surface boundary and some semblance of the
Piedmont Trough is providing an excellent impetus for convection
this afternoon and will continue to do so through the afternoon and
evening hours. Some disagreement on longevity of the convection as
the GFS keeps it going longer and with slowly improving upper level
support this seems reasonable. Expect a similar evolution of events
Friday and into early Saturday with some NVA in the morning hours
followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With frontal moisture still aplenty and a healthy shortwave (at
least by June standards) moving overhead Saturday should feature
fairly widespread rainfall. Deep convection may not be as widespread
as on Friday due to cooler highs/less instability. This is because
we find ourselves not only on the cooler side of the front but cloud
cover will also be extensive according to model soundings which show
near saturation through the lowest 500mb. There may be an argument
to open up a range in POPs with higher values over the southern
zones where frontal moisture could be deeper.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal moisture just about cleared out to our south by Sunday, some
low POPs will linger along the coast however. Rain chances appear
minimal on Monday as some weak mid level height rises poke in from
the west and surface winds are light and variable between the
offshore front and high pressure west of the mountains. A cold front
drops in later Tuesday and models light up with convection pretty
good even later in the evening as the stronger dynamics aloft
arrive. A fairly deep summertime trough will develop over NY
Wednesday and Thursday. This should quite readily dry us out locally
while keeping temperatures quite seasonable but with slightly lower
humidity than most of the preceding days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broken low stratus over inland areas slowly breaking up this
morning, with isolated showers across SE NC. Lull in
precipitation expected late this morning before scattered
thunderstorms appear again this afternoon through the evening
with diurnal heating and weak upper level support. Predominantly
VFR, with intermittent sub- VFR conditions possible within
heavier showers. Low stratus possible across SE NC early
tomorrow morning. Winds out of the SSW through Friday morning,
5-10 kts with slightly higher afternoon winds at coastal
terminals.

Extended Outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms through this weekend with
patchy fog or stratus in early mornings due to humidity.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday night...A southwest flow of 15-20 knots will be
in place through early Saturday morning across all waters. The
speeds will gradually approach the higher end of the range in
time. Significant seas will increase via the increase in winds
from a 2-4 foot range currently to 3-5 later Friday into
Saturday morning.

Saturday through Tuesday...Wind veered to westerly on Saturday with
a cold front stalled just to our south. Saturday night into Sunday
is when the upper wave pushes through giving the surface boundary
enough of a nudge to the south that winds veer more strongly over
the local area. Wave faces may steepen up and cause headaches for
some mariners but the overall predominant wave height not expected
to increase much at all. The front weakens on Monday while high
pressure to our west seems hesitant to push east of the mountains.
This keeps the winds capped at 10 kt allowing wave heights to settle
while their steepness does the same.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
335 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ087-096-099-105>109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-111945-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
335 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-111945-
Coastal Brunswick-
335 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with afternoon and evening
TSTMs
may produce localized flooding and isolated highway ponding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Moderate risk of rip currents possible Thursday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-056-111945-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
335 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-111945-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
335 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
347 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ105-107-102015-
Inland New Hanover NC-Inland Pender NC-
347 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW HANOVER AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENDER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 347 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Phoenix, or near Leland, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Point, Hightsville, Long Creek, Castle Hayne, Cape Fear
Community College North Campus, Wrightsboro, Montague, Wilmington
International Airport and Murrayville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 7797 3427 7799 3427 7800 3428 7799
      3428 7800 3429 7802 3432 7801 3432 7803
      3433 7803 3433 7805 3434 7806 3434 7808
      3435 7808 3435 7809 3437 7814 3436 7816
      3435 7819 3455 7796 3433 7777
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 233DEG 12KT 3433 7806

MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
415 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ105-106-102045-
Coastal Pender NC-Inland Pender NC-
415 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENDER COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rocky Point, or 9 miles south of Burgaw, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Surf City, Hampstead, Topsail Beach, Rocky Point, Topsail, Ashton,
Woodside and Edgecomb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 7764 3433 7779 3436 7781 3438 7781
      3439 7782 3438 7786 3436 7789 3437 7790
      3438 7790 3438 7792 3436 7793 3448 7798
      3461 7763 3448 7758 3446 7754 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 252DEG 26KT 3442 7786

MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
534 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ099-105-109-102200-
Inland Brunswick NC-Columbus NC-Inland Pender NC-
534 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PENDER...NORTH CENTRAL
BRUNSWICK AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Freeman, or 19 miles west of Leland, moving east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwest, Sandyfield, Freeman, Delco, Riegelwood, Bolton and Sandy
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 7810 3428 7844 3437 7845 3438 7842
      3437 7833 3440 7826 3443 7822 3446 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 266DEG 13KT 3432 7835

MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
617 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

SCZ033-039-055-056-102245-
Marion SC-Coastal Georgetown SC-Williamsburg SC-Inland Georgetown SC-
617 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL GEORGETOWN...SOUTH CENTRAL
MARION AND EAST CENTRAL WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 617 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oatland, or 10 miles north of Georgetown, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, DeBordieu Colony, Pawleys Island, Murrells Inlet,
Plantersville, Rhems, Graves, Yauhannah, Oatland, Litchfield Beach,
Georgetown Memorial Hospital and Waccamaw Community Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 7955 3384 7926 3383 7925 3382 7926
      3376 7924 3373 7919 3371 7919 3368 7916
      3366 7915 3365 7912 3364 7913 3363 7913
      3360 7911 3361 7910 3358 7910 3357 7900
      3354 7902 3349 7908 3341 7913 3329 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 226DEG 38KT 3351 7931

MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
623 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ105>108-102300-
Inland New Hanover NC-Coastal Pender NC-Inland Pender NC-
Coastal New Hanover NC-
623 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN NEW HANOVER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PENDER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 623 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Edgecomb to Murrayville. Movement was east at
45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Surf City, Rich Inlet, Figure Eight Island, Hampstead, Topsail Beach,
Hightsville, Cape Fear Community College North Campus, Wrightsboro,
Wilmington International Airport, Murrayville, Topsail, Castle Hayne,
Bayshore, Scotts Hill, Porters Neck, Woodside, Edgecomb, Kings Grant
and Ogden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3434 7766 3429 7772 3425 7797 3427 7799
      3427 7800 3428 7799 3428 7800 3429 7802
      3432 7801 3458 7766 3459 7762 3448 7758
      3446 7754 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 252DEG 37KT 3448 7759 3430 7785

MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
626 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

SCZ017-023-102300-
Marlboro SC-Darlington SC-
626 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN DARLINGTON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Swift Creek, or near Darlington, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hartsville, Darlington, Dovesville, Mechanicsville, Mont Clare,
Brownsville, Darlington Raceway, Auburn, Floyd, Swift Creek and
Blenheim.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 7968 3438 7958 3430 7963 3430 7964
      3431 7967 3429 7968 3430 7973 3428 7974
      3427 7974 3421 8000 3437 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 246DEG 26KT 3432 7997

MBB