Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few days
ahead of a cold front. This front will move to our south by
Saturday but a few showers could linger. Rain chances will be
minimal Sunday and Monday and then ramp up with the next front
on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A residual surface boundary and some semblance of the
Piedmont Trough is providing an excellent impetus for convection
this afternoon and will continue to do so through the afternoon and
evening hours. Some disagreement on longevity of the convection as
the GFS keeps it going longer and with slowly improving upper level
support this seems reasonable. Expect a similar evolution of events
Friday and into early Saturday with some NVA in the morning hours
followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With frontal moisture still aplenty and a healthy shortwave (at
least by June standards) moving overhead Saturday should feature
fairly widespread rainfall. Deep convection may not be as widespread
as on Friday due to cooler highs/less instability. This is because
we find ourselves not only on the cooler side of the front but cloud
cover will also be extensive according to model soundings which show
near saturation through the lowest 500mb. There may be an argument
to open up a range in POPs with higher values over the southern
zones where frontal moisture could be deeper.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal moisture just about cleared out to our south by Sunday, some
low POPs will linger along the coast however. Rain chances appear
minimal on Monday as some weak mid level height rises poke in from
the west and surface winds are light and variable between the
offshore front and high pressure west of the mountains. A cold front
drops in later Tuesday and models light up with convection pretty
good even later in the evening as the stronger dynamics aloft
arrive. A fairly deep summertime trough will develop over NY
Wednesday and Thursday. This should quite readily dry us out locally
while keeping temperatures quite seasonable but with slightly lower
humidity than most of the preceding days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broken low stratus over inland areas slowly breaking up this
morning, with isolated showers across SE NC. Lull in
precipitation expected late this morning before scattered
thunderstorms appear again this afternoon through the evening
with diurnal heating and weak upper level support. Predominantly
VFR, with intermittent sub- VFR conditions possible within
heavier showers. Low stratus possible across SE NC early
tomorrow morning. Winds out of the SSW through Friday morning,
5-10 kts with slightly higher afternoon winds at coastal
terminals.

Extended Outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms through this weekend with
patchy fog or stratus in early mornings due to humidity.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday night...A southwest flow of 15-20 knots will be
in place through early Saturday morning across all waters. The
speeds will gradually approach the higher end of the range in
time. Significant seas will increase via the increase in winds
from a 2-4 foot range currently to 3-5 later Friday into
Saturday morning.

Saturday through Tuesday...Wind veered to westerly on Saturday with
a cold front stalled just to our south. Saturday night into Sunday
is when the upper wave pushes through giving the surface boundary
enough of a nudge to the south that winds veer more strongly over
the local area. Wave faces may steepen up and cause headaches for
some mariners but the overall predominant wave height not expected
to increase much at all. The front weakens on Monday while high
pressure to our west seems hesitant to push east of the mountains.
This keeps the winds capped at 10 kt allowing wave heights to settle
while their steepness does the same.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
503 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ087-096-099-105>109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-110915-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
503 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with afternoon and evening TSTMs
may produce localized flooding and isolated highway ponding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periods of heavy rain possible Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-110915-
Coastal Brunswick-
503 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with afternoon and evening TSTMs
may produce localized flooding and isolated highway ponding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Moderate risk of rip currents possible Thursday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-056-110915-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
503 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with afternoon and evening TSTMs
may produce localized flooding and isolated highway ponding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-110915-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
503 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A brief small craft advisory is possible Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
313 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NCZ109-101945-
Inland Brunswick NC-
313 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Batarora, or 10 miles west of Leland, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwest, Batarora, Phoenix and Sandy Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 7800 3427 7801 3417 7824 3422 7825
      3437 7815 3437 7812 3436 7811 3435 7808
      3434 7808 3434 7806 3433 7805 3433 7803
      3432 7803 3432 7801 3429 7802 3428 7799
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 244DEG 19KT 3425 7820

MBB