Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Forecast highlights the next 7 days:

* Periodic thunderstorm chances the next several days.

* Near to slightly below normal temperatures the next several days.

MCV currently spinning slowly south across central KS amidst a moist
and weakly capped airmass will be the focus for isolated to widely
scattered hit-or-miss thunderstorms through the evening, mainly
along and west of the Flint Hills corridor. Modest mid/upper
northwesterly flow may support just enough deep layer shear for some
weak storm organization and associated marginal strong to severe
storms. Main threats with the strongest activity will be dime-
quarter size hail, 50-65 mph downburst winds, and locally heavy
rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

Thinking later tonight, additional thunderstorm activity could move
into central KS from the north, as a lobe of shortwave energy
approaches from the north. Thinking these chances will move/expand
southeastward on Monday, encompassing much of the region given the
upper forcing and moist/weakly capped airmass. Not expecting
widespread coverage, but more of the isolated to widely scattered
hit-or-miss variety. Like today, combination of instability/shear
could support a few strong to marginally severe storms, along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Much of the same for Tuesday...lingering weak upper energy and
associated cooler temperatures aloft amidst a moist/weakly capped
atmosphere will support additional isolated hit-or-miss
showers/storms. Went against the lower PoP NBM load and inserted
slight chances across the whole forecast area, although suspect
slightly higher shower/storm chances may focus further east across
southeast KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Unsettled pattern shower/thunderstorm-wise continues mid week, as
additional subtle mid/upper energy progresses over Mid-America
amidst increasing precipitable waters. These chances continue
through late week, as an unseasonably strong upper trough progresses
across the western and northern CONUS, dragging a cold front
south/southeast into Mid-America. The ECMWF is a bit more agressive
with the southward push of this front, supporting somewhat cooler
and mostly dry weather by next weekend. However, the GFS and GEM
stall the front across the region, supporting continued muggy
conditions and higher rain/storm chances next weekend.

All-in-all...while isolated occurrences of strong to marginally
severe storms are possible, the potential for widespread severe
weather is low mid week through the weekend. However, increasing
flow aloft associated with the glancing blow of the deep western
CONUS trough may support a slight uptick in severe storm chances
late week into the weekend. Also, pockets of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding are possible through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

A cluster of severe storms was impacting portions of south
central Kansas early this evening. This activity is expected to
fade away as the evening progresses. Storms are most likely in the
KGBD area through 03Z while other hit-or-miss showers and storms
could impact the remainder of the TAF sites in central and south
central Kansas but confidence remains too low to mention. Light
southeasterly flow will persist through tomorrow with some widely
scattered storms possible once again during the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  89  68  89 /  20  30  20  20
Hutchinson      67  88  67  89 /  20  30  20  20
Newton          66  87  66  87 /  20  30  20  20
ElDorado        66  87  67  87 /  20  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  89  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
Russell         67  88  66  90 /  40  40  20  20
Great Bend      67  86  66  87 /  40  40  20  20
Salina          67  87  68  89 /  20  30  20  20
McPherson       66  86  66  87 /  20  30  20  20
Coffeyville     67  88  68  89 /   0  10  10  20
Chanute         66  87  68  88 /   0  10  10  20
Iola            65  86  66  88 /   0  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    66  87  67  89 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
643 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms, some severe with damaging winds and
large hail will remain possible early this evening, mainly along and
west of Highway 14. Torrential rain may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Periodic chances for hit-or-miss thunderstorms are forecast Monday
through the weekend. While widespread severe weather is unlikely,
the greatest chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms
this week will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be a threat. Stay tuned for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather and flooding are always greatly
appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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