Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
101 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

A weak high pressure center in the Upper midwest is keeping weak
ridging in the region.  This is keeping the surface focus to minimum
and is expected to linger through today and into Monday morning.  As
such, kept POPs on the low side to compensate.  At this point, it
appears the main focus will be in Southwest Nebraska with any storms
developing propagating to the south and east.  As such, it appears
the best chance for thunderstorm activity will be along the I-70
corridor provided thunderstorms hold together long enough to arrive
late this afternoon and tonight. Monday and into Tuesday, mid and
upper level flow will shift to the west and northwest.  This change
will coincide with an increase in moisture transport over the parts
of Western Kansas and into Southern Nebraska.  This will create
increased instability and raise the potential for severe weather
over western portions of the CWA.  Focus continues to be a problem
for our CWA which indicates any thunderstorm activity that does
develop will likely be restricted to the north and west of the
region.  This thunderstorm activity will need to advect into the
region to provide the CWA with any significant chances for
thunderstorm activity.  This thunderstorm potential does look to
increase for Wednesday as moisture transport appears to continue to
increase with an open Gulf of Mexico.  The trigger at this point
does look to encroach on the CWA and will likely be elevated. Severe
weather potential also looks better with marginal severe hail and
high wind potential.  Confidence remains low with this solution due
to the inconsistency of the model ensemble families but most of the
models are starting to point in this direction.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

The extended range remains fluid but confidence is growing on the
potential for a strong frontal system coming through toward the end
of week.  The ECMWF/GFS/Canadian ensemble families are all
indicating a strong long wave shift in the pattern to allow a rather
potent frontal system to come through the CWA.  Timing is the aspect
of disagreement between the three ensemble families.   The GFS
families bring the main front into the region by Thursday while the
ECMWF and Canadian families are much slower and focus more on Friday
night and into Saturday.  Another point of disagreement is the GFS
appears to shift the main threat of the system from a quick hit to a
potential persistent rain event by stalling the front over the CWA.
The Canadian also hints at this but to a lesser extent.  As such
confidence in the extended range POPs is very low and will have to
wait until newer runs of the models come in before it improves.
Temperature wise, confidence remain rather good keeping the
temperatures near or just a little below normal for this time of
year.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period with light
southeast winds. However, there is a chance of a few storms along
and mainly west of I-135 this afternoon. Additional storms may
move into the area from the northwest tonight. However, there is a
lot of uncertainty in timing and coverage of any storms thus left
specific mention out of TAFs for now. Areas that see storms
tonight could result in MVFR cigs or lower by tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  69  89  68 /  10  10  20  20
Hutchinson      89  67  88  66 /  10  20  30  20
Newton          87  66  87  67 /  10  10  30  20
ElDorado        87  66  87  68 /  10   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   89  67  89  68 /  10   0  10  20
Russell         90  68  88  65 /  60  30  30  20
Great Bend      87  67  84  64 /  60  30  30  20
Salina          90  68  88  67 /  10  30  30  20
McPherson       87  67  85  66 /  10  20  30  20
Coffeyville     88  66  89  68 /  10   0  10  10
Chanute         87  64  87  68 /  10   0  10  10
Iola            86  64  87  66 /  10   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    88  65  88  67 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
415 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-160915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
415 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible this morning in Russell
and Barton counties. Very heavy rain with localized flooding in low
lying areas is possible this morning. Severe weather is not
expected.

Thunderstorms will again be possible this evening along the I-70
corridor tonight. A few strong storms are possible and an isolated
severe storm can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Periodic chances for storms are forecast Monday through Friday.
Storms not expected to be severe at this time. Stay tuned for
updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
211 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

KSZ048>051-151945-
Ellsworth KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-Saline KS-
211 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
McPherson, northeastern Rice, southeastern Ellsworth and southwestern
Saline Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Marquette, or 13 miles southeast of Kanopolis.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marquette, Kanopolis Lake and Kanopolis State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9790 3852 9767 3840 9792 3866 9813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 331DEG 2KT 3863 9794

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

KSZ048-049-051-152030-
Ellsworth KS-McPherson KS-Saline KS-
301 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
McPherson, southeastern Ellsworth and Saline Counties through 330 PM
CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Salina and a second storm 5 miles south of Brookville, these
storms are nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salina, Lindsborg, Marquette, Assaria, Brookville, Smolan, Falun,
Bridgeport, Kanopolis Lake, Salina Airport, Kanopolis State Park and
Kipp.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 77 and 95.
 Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 240 and 256.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 9743 3841 9786 3851 9793 3852 9792
      3852 9794 3875 9809 3896 9770 3896 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 198DEG 5KT 3880 9766

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER