Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
100 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level
wave moving eastward across Montana and Wyoming, and this system
will move into the Dakotas for tonight. Elevated severe storms
developed this morning/early afternoon along mid-level frontal
boundary over northwest/central Kansas. Latest thinking is that
moist upslope low level flow will generate storms this afternoon
across the high plains region of western Nebraska which will then
travel east/southeast tonight along that mid-level frontal boundary.
A large scale forward propagating MCS is likely with damaging to
destructive winds being the primary risk overnight. The track of
this MCS could clip parts of central KS(I-70 corridor) with the
better chances remaining north over southern Nebraska/northern KS.
This MCS should create a well pronounced outflow boundary that will
surge southward and become a focus for storms re-developing on
Thursday. Where this boundary ends up will be key for Thursday
afternoon severe weather location. Shear vectors look be more
parallel to the surface frontal boundary/outflow boundary which
should create a more rapid liner storm mode development, with
damaging winds and large hail being the main risk. A few tornadoes
could be possible for any initial discrete cells, however the risk
looks lower due to quick evolution to liner mode. Given an expected
very unstable airmass south of the boundary the line of storms could
produce higher end severe weather.

Another area for storms possibly redeveloping this afternoon will be
along the dry-line in southwest Kansas. A very unstable airmass with
MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg and favorable wind shear aloft supports
supercell development. Any storm that develops along the dry-line
should remain discrete with 0-8km shear vectors being perpendicular
to the dry-line boundary. This activity will move eastward into a
favorable tornadic environment this evening with increasing low
level jet and boosting values of 0-1km SRH. This activity could
reach parts of central/south central Kansas late this evening.

Surface high pressure with cooler and much drier air will overspread
the region for Thursday night into Friday, as upper trough shifts
eastward into the Great Lakes region. This will stabilize the
atmosphere over Kansas with dry weather expected for Thursday night-
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Models show upper level ridge axis shifting slowly east on Sunday
with a couple upper waves moving across the central plains for
Sunday-Tuesday next week. This looks to bring more rounds of
showers/storms to the region. Meanwhile long range models show an
upper trough pivoting eastward across the central plains on
Wednesday, and if this signal remains consistent then weather
pattern would shift precipitation east of Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Low level moisture transport continues to stream to the NE into
southern KS. This moisture advection is feeding a bowing line of
convection currently moving across southern KS. Expect this complex
of storms to continue to move to the east early this morning and
affect the KCNU taf site. So will go with a SHRA/VCTS and some
variable wind gusts for this complex.

The rest of the region will see a lull from the convection
overnight, as most of the convection moves NE of the forecast area.

A frontal boundary will push southeast across the forecast area
during the daytime hours. Expect this front to be located close to
the KS Turnpike by around 18z, with convection expected to develop
along this boundary for Thu afternoon.  So will go with VCTS and
TSRA for the KICT/KCNU and KHUT taf sites.  Expect this convective
chance to move rapidly SE into NE OK, by the early evening hours on
Thu.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  82  53  72 /  40  60  20  10
Hutchinson      68  82  51  70 /  50  40  10   0
Newton          68  82  51  69 /  50  60  10   0
ElDorado        68  82  52  70 /  60  70  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   69  82  55  73 /  30  70  30  10
Russell         63  79  47  69 /  60  10   0   0
Great Bend      66  81  48  70 /  50  20  10   0
Salina          64  81  50  69 /  70  50   0   0
McPherson       65  82  50  69 /  60  50  10   0
Coffeyville     69  82  57  71 /  20  90  60  10
Chanute         69  82  55  69 /  50  80  40  10
Iola            68  81  54  68 /  60  90  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  82  56  70 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
428 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-272130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
428 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will affect central Kansas through the early evening
hours with very large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall,
and a few tornadoes possible.

More storms look to develop over southwest Kansas which would move
eastward, and could reach central and south central Kansas after 10
PM. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado would be possible
with this activity.

In addition, thunderstorms will develop over southwest Nebraska then
track east southeast tonight. The storms will evolve into a line of
storms with the primary risk being damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph,
and heavy rainfall. This line of storms could impact central Kansas
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A cold front will move across the area Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. Locations generally along and southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike will have the greatest risk of severe storms.
Severe storms appear likely with golfball to tennis ball size hail,
damaging winds of 60-70 mph, and perhaps a tornado or two. Heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will also be possible.

More rounds of storms will be possible for Sunday through Tuesday
across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     TSTM WND GST     JABARA AIRPORT          37.75N 97.22W
05/27/2021  M69 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   ASOS

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND GST     MCCONNELL AFB           37.62N 97.27W
05/27/2021  M58 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   ASOS

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
101 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ052-053-270630-
Marion KS-Chase KS-
101 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 130 AM CDT.

* At 1259 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near
  Burdick, or 14 miles northeast of Marion...moving northeast at 15
  mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hymer, Tallgrass Prairie and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9653 3845 9649 3836 9685
      3853 9695 3854 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 245DEG 15KT 3849 9682

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
125 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ071-095-099-270700-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Woodson KS-
125 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 200 AM CDT.

* At 123 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall along a line
  extending from Gridley to 6 miles south of Elk City...and moving
  northeast at 5 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Independence, Neodesha, Fredonia, Cherryvale, Yates Center,
  Altoona, Elk City, Toronto, Buffalo, Neosho Falls, Liberty, Havana,
  Bolton, Sycamore, Benedict, New Albany, Coyville, Buxton, Elk City
  Lake and Rose.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3804 9595 3804 9552 3712 9552 3709 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 245DEG 6KT 3810 9591 3720 9591

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
136 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE EL DORADO         37.82N 96.85W
05/27/2021                   BUTLER             KS   PUBLIC

            6-INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN, E60.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
143 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ070-094-098-270745-
Greenwood KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
143 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 245 AM CDT.

* At 142 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Toronto
  to near Cedar Vale...and moving east at 15 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eureka, Sedan, Howard, Cedar Vale, Moline, Longton, Hamilton,
  Severy, Grenola, Fall River, Peru, Chautauqua, Elk Falls, Niotaze,
  Climax, Virgil, Eureka City Lake, Eureka Airport, Fall River State
  Park and Hale.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3789 9652 3804 9597 3701 9596 3701 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 275DEG 14KT 3780 9593 3711 9659

METZGER