Areal Flood Warning 20, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level
wave moving eastward across Montana and Wyoming, and this system
will move into the Dakotas for tonight. Elevated severe storms
developed this morning/early afternoon along mid-level frontal
boundary over northwest/central Kansas. Latest thinking is that
moist upslope low level flow will generate storms this afternoon
across the high plains region of western Nebraska which will then
travel east/southeast tonight along that mid-level frontal boundary.
A large scale forward propagating MCS is likely with damaging to
destructive winds being the primary risk overnight. The track of
this MCS could clip parts of central KS(I-70 corridor) with the
better chances remaining north over southern Nebraska/northern KS.
This MCS should create a well pronounced outflow boundary that will
surge southward and become a focus for storms re-developing on
Thursday. Where this boundary ends up will be key for Thursday
afternoon severe weather location. Shear vectors look be more
parallel to the surface frontal boundary/outflow boundary which
should create a more rapid liner storm mode development, with
damaging winds and large hail being the main risk. A few tornadoes
could be possible for any initial discrete cells, however the risk
looks lower due to quick evolution to liner mode. Given an expected
very unstable airmass south of the boundary the line of storms could
produce higher end severe weather.

Another area for storms possibly redeveloping this afternoon will be
along the dry-line in southwest Kansas. A very unstable airmass with
MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg and favorable wind shear aloft supports
supercell development. Any storm that develops along the dry-line
should remain discrete with 0-8km shear vectors being perpendicular
to the dry-line boundary. This activity will move eastward into a
favorable tornadic environment this evening with increasing low
level jet and boosting values of 0-1km SRH. This activity could
reach parts of central/south central Kansas late this evening.

Surface high pressure with cooler and much drier air will overspread
the region for Thursday night into Friday, as upper trough shifts
eastward into the Great Lakes region. This will stabilize the
atmosphere over Kansas with dry weather expected for Thursday night-
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Models show upper level ridge axis shifting slowly east on Sunday
with a couple upper waves moving across the central plains for
Sunday-Tuesday next week. This looks to bring more rounds of
showers/storms to the region. Meanwhile long range models show an
upper trough pivoting eastward across the central plains on
Wednesday, and if this signal remains consistent then weather
pattern would shift precipitation east of Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Terminals of Concern: KSLN, KRSL and KGBD thunderstorm

Showers and thunder storms are expected across much of the region
through much of the first 6 hours of the TAF. KSLN, KRSL and KGBD
will be the most at risk for thunderstorm activity. Some of this
activity is expected to be severe with large hail and wind. This
activity has the possibility to make it as far south of KHUT and
KICT but this is on the low end of possibility. VFR conditions are
expected to return to all terminals by 12Z.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  82  53  72 /  40  60  20  10
Hutchinson      68  82  51  70 /  50  40  10   0
Newton          68  82  51  69 /  50  60  10   0
ElDorado        68  82  52  70 /  60  70  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   69  82  55  73 /  30  70  30  10
Russell         63  79  47  69 /  60  20   0   0
Great Bend      66  81  48  70 /  50  20  10   0
Salina          67  81  50  69 /  70  50   0   0
McPherson       67  82  50  69 /  60  50  10   0
Coffeyville     69  82  57  71 /  20  90  60  10
Chanute         69  82  55  69 /  50  80  40  10
Iola            68  81  54  68 /  60  90  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  82  56  70 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
428 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-272130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
428 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will affect central Kansas through the early evening
hours with very large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall,
and a few tornadoes possible.

More storms look to develop over southwest Kansas which would move
eastward, and could reach central and south central Kansas after 10
PM. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado would be possible
with this activity.

In addition, thunderstorms will develop over southwest Nebraska then
track east southeast tonight. The storms will evolve into a line of
storms with the primary risk being damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph,
and heavy rainfall. This line of storms could impact central Kansas
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A cold front will move across the area Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. Locations generally along and southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike will have the greatest risk of severe storms.
Severe storms appear likely with golfball to tennis ball size hail,
damaging winds of 60-70 mph, and perhaps a tornado or two. Heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will also be possible.

More rounds of storms will be possible for Sunday through Tuesday
across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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