Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
352 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The main concern through is the threat for strong to marginally
severe storms through the remainder of the afternoon and evening
along and ahead of the sfc cold front steadily moving through the
area. As of 1945Z the cold front bisects the area in a line from
about Emporia KS to just west of Winfield KS.

Ample bulk shear running parallel to the cold front will continue
to support broken lines of convection as it continues to move
southeast this afternoon and evening. Overall, storms have been
under-performing model progged MLCAPE so far today, likely due to
extensive cloud cover/lack of destabilization across the area.
The strongest storms that can develop may be able to support some
dime to isolated quarter size hail as HiRes data continues to
paint a small region of 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE along/just ahead of
the front. In this same region, there is also a focused zone of
about 100-150 J/kg 0-3km MLCAPE with increased sfc vorticity and
LCLs in 500-700m AGL range. This combination has produced
(northern OK), and will continue to support, a brief funnel cloud
or two with updrafts along and just ahead of the front. The risk
of a landspout tornado is very low but non-zero.

A few additional showers and isolated storms will be possible along
the 850-700mb baroclinic zone behind the sfc front however moisture
becomes decreased in these areas thus expect a general taper-down in
activity toward the late evening hours with just a few lingering
elevated showers possible across far southeast KS around midnight.

As the main trough continues to push east of the area tomorrow upper
northwest flow will return to the region while sfc high pressure
builds into the area. Weak upper ridging is progged to remain
overhead through much of the weekend brining warm and dry conditions
back across the area with temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Meanwhile the 500mb low is progged to continue to meander across
the eastern dessert southwest/northern Mexico through Saturday
before it is forced northeast across Texas due to the next
shortwave diving south of the pacific northwest. There is some
consensus that the passing system brings some showers to the area
Sunday evening and night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

As the pacific northwest trough continues its trek southeast, it
should be located near the central Rockies by late Monday and
ejecting out over the Central Plains by Tuesday. This will drive
a cold front/developing sfc low across the region brining
increased chances of showers and storms to the region. A big
western CONUS ridge will be building to end the period, returning
northwest flow to the region with dry condition and seasonable
high temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

A southward moving frontal boundary is currently located from KHUT
to near KEMP to KTOP. As the front moves south for the afternoon
hours expect a wind shift to the NW, with the frontal boundary
making it into SE KS by this evening.  Copious amounts of moisture
is located ahead of the front with MVFR cigs. Also seeing some
scattered showers and storms developing ahead of the front as well,
so plan on going with a VCTS for the KICT/KHUT and KCNU tafs as
afternoon heating leads to additional TSRA development ahead of the
front for the afternoon hours.

As the front moves south, post frontal MVFR to IFR cigs will be
common with some scattered showers around.  So will go with a VCSH
for this shower chance.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Increased RH and precipitation across the area will keep the fire
danger threat very low over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  74  46  76 /  60  10   0   0
Hutchinson      50  73  44  76 /  40  10   0   0
Newton          50  72  45  75 /  50  10   0   0
ElDorado        52  73  46  75 /  60  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   54  74  45  76 /  80  10  10   0
Russell         45  74  43  79 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      45  73  43  77 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          48  75  44  78 /  40   0   0   0
McPherson       49  73  44  75 /  50  10   0   0
Coffeyville     58  73  46  76 /  80  10  10   0
Chanute         57  73  46  75 /  80  10   0   0
Iola            56  73  46  74 /  80  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    58  74  47  75 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
518 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-292230-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
518 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue south and east of the Kansas
turnpike through tonight. A few storms may be strong to marginally
severe through about 10PM. The strongest storms may be capable of dime
to quarter sized hail, 50 to 60 mph winds. A brief funnel cloud or
weak landspout tornado can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

KSZ052-053-281745-
Marion KS-Chase KS-
1146 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Northern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 1245 PM CDT.

* At 1144 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles north of Peabody...moving
  northeast at 40 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsboro, Marion, Peabody, Florence, Elmdale, Hymer, Marion Lake,
  Tallgrass Prairie and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9635 3826 9684 3815 9712 3832 9725
      3852 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 239DEG 36KT 3827 9711

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

KSZ094-095-098-099-282030-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Northeastern Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 223 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Longton, or 14 miles northeast
  of Sedan...moving northeast at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Longton, Elk City, Hale and Buxton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 9602 3730 9621 3757 9597 3739 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 216DEG 15KT 3731 9606

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
453 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

KSZ093-282215-
Cowley KS-
453 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 449 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Hardy, or 15 miles east of
  Arkansas City...moving northeast at 40 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dexter and Maple City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are also favorable for the  development of funnel clouds
in and close to the highlighted area.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9660 3729 9653 3700 9653 3700 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 221DEG 34KT 3700 9677

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
510 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

KSZ093-282245-
Cowley KS-
510 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 506 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Udall...moving east at 10 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will
be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Udall, Rock and Winfield City Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are also favorable for the  development of funnel clouds
in and close to the highlighted area.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 9715 3744 9715 3747 9711 3747 9686
      3733 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 251DEG 10KT 3736 9712

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
522 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

KSZ093-094-098-282245-
Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
522 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  East central Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 520 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Grenola, or 13
  miles north of Cedar Vale...moving east at 10 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Grenola.

Conditions are also favorable for the  development of funnel clouds
in and close to the highlighted area.

LAT...LON 3724 9660 3733 9665 3750 9642 3723 9628
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 251DEG 10KT 3730 9655

MCGUIRE