Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
543 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Tonight:
Cap looks to hold tough at the start of the period based on
forecast and observed soundings, but with increasing
moisture/convergence precipitation chances should ramp up quickly
between 03-06 UTC mainly east of I-35. Strong storms appear to be
most likely, with a slight increase in 700MB-500MB shear starting
around 0900 UTC relatively to yesterdays forecast. Thinking best
chance for low end severe will be from elevated hail producers
well after midnight.

Thursday:
Continued 850MB moisture/warm air advection in baroclinic zone
will easily keep precipitation going through the morning and
likely well into the afternoon in southeast KS. High temperatures
may be relatively uniform with some sunshine in the north and
clouds lingering in far southeast.

Thursday night-Friday night:
Still some model differences but all suggest 850MB
moisture/baroclinic zone will move north across the area on Friday
with precipitation spreading north. With good lift and copious
moisture moving in Friday, widespread rain will likely develop and
continue into Friday night. Highest rainfall amounts are most
likely in southeast KS. Increased low temperatures both Thursday
night and Friday night based on extensive clouds/precipitation.

Saturday:
Best 850MB baroclinic zone may be just northwest of forecast area
by Saturday, but surface front is forecast to remain near KS/OK
border. With near saturated column and increasing diffluence ahead
of upper low, precipitation will likely continue both Saturday
and Saturday night area wide. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

While 1200 UTC ECMWF and GFS runs are surprisingly similar aloft
and not that different at the surface, there is a fairly
substantial difference in timing/location of the large dry slot
working around the low. This will have a major impact on
precipitation chances Sunday. GFS would keep much of the area dry
during the daylight hours, while ECMWF lingers precipitation area
wide in the morning and into the afternoon in southeast KS. Both
suggest some precipitation on back side of low Sunday night into
Monday. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist into the
start of the work week. Confidence in forecast dwindles with
precipitation and temperatures on Wednesday due to the large
differences between models with the next wave. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Cold front moving into central Kansas this evening will catch up
and overtake the dry line along the Kansas turnpike corridor
overnight. Scattered to numerous convection is expected along the
intersecting boundaries across east central into southeast Kansas.
MVFR cigs and vsbys can also be expected across southeast Kansas
tonight into Thursday morning in and near any convection.
Otherwise, the main affect of behind the cold front will be a wind
shift to north-northeast tonight into Thursday as the front sinks
into Oklahoma.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Extreme to catastrophic GFDI values will persist for a couple
more hours before winds decrease. Plan to keep red flag warning
going until expiration at this point. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  61  45  55 /  20  10  30  80
Hutchinson      39  61  42  51 /  10   0  20  70
Newton          42  61  44  52 /  20  10  20  80
ElDorado        46  61  45  55 /  40  10  30  80
Winfield-KWLD   51  62  47  60 /  50  20  40  90
Russell         34  59  37  49 /   0   0  10  50
Great Bend      34  59  38  50 /   0   0  10  50
Salina          36  61  40  51 /  10   0  10  60
McPherson       38  60  41  50 /  10   0  20  70
Coffeyville     56  64  49  61 /  70  70  50  90
Chanute         51  59  47  56 /  70  50  40  90
Iola            48  59  46  55 /  70  40  40  90
Parsons-KPPF    54  62  48  59 /  70  60  50  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
945 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-120345-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
945 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the southern Flint
Hills and southeast Kansas. Some of the storms will be strong to
severe, capable of nickel to half dollar size hail and 50 to 60 mph
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast from
Thursday night through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is possible,
especially over parts of southeast Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight due to the isolated
nature of any severe weather.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1007 PM CST WED MAR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE BUFFALO           37.70N 95.67W
03/10/2021  E60 MPH          WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1018 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ069-093-094-110445-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Elk KS-
1018 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1045 PM CST.

* At 1015 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms 6 miles east of Atlanta and 2 miles
  northwest of Howard...moving east at 45 mph.

*Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts to 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Howard, Moline, Grenola and Cambridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 9679 3757 9652 3761 9641 3760 9617
      3742 9602 3729 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 247DEG 44KT 3742 9665

BUTLER