Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
543 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Tonight:
Cap looks to hold tough at the start of the period based on
forecast and observed soundings, but with increasing
moisture/convergence precipitation chances should ramp up quickly
between 03-06 UTC mainly east of I-35. Strong storms appear to be
most likely, with a slight increase in 700MB-500MB shear starting
around 0900 UTC relatively to yesterdays forecast. Thinking best
chance for low end severe will be from elevated hail producers
well after midnight.

Thursday:
Continued 850MB moisture/warm air advection in baroclinic zone
will easily keep precipitation going through the morning and
likely well into the afternoon in southeast KS. High temperatures
may be relatively uniform with some sunshine in the north and
clouds lingering in far southeast.

Thursday night-Friday night:
Still some model differences but all suggest 850MB
moisture/baroclinic zone will move north across the area on Friday
with precipitation spreading north. With good lift and copious
moisture moving in Friday, widespread rain will likely develop and
continue into Friday night. Highest rainfall amounts are most
likely in southeast KS. Increased low temperatures both Thursday
night and Friday night based on extensive clouds/precipitation.

Saturday:
Best 850MB baroclinic zone may be just northwest of forecast area
by Saturday, but surface front is forecast to remain near KS/OK
border. With near saturated column and increasing diffluence ahead
of upper low, precipitation will likely continue both Saturday
and Saturday night area wide. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

While 1200 UTC ECMWF and GFS runs are surprisingly similar aloft
and not that different at the surface, there is a fairly
substantial difference in timing/location of the large dry slot
working around the low. This will have a major impact on
precipitation chances Sunday. GFS would keep much of the area dry
during the daylight hours, while ECMWF lingers precipitation area
wide in the morning and into the afternoon in southeast KS. Both
suggest some precipitation on back side of low Sunday night into
Monday. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist into the
start of the work week. Confidence in forecast dwindles with
precipitation and temperatures on Wednesday due to the large
differences between models with the next wave. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Cold front moving into central Kansas this evening will catch up
and overtake the dry line along the Kansas turnpike corridor
overnight. Scattered to numerous convection is expected along the
intersecting boundaries across east central into southeast Kansas.
MVFR cigs and vsbys can also be expected across southeast Kansas
tonight into Thursday morning in and near any convection.
Otherwise, the main affect of behind the cold front will be a wind
shift to north-northeast tonight into Thursday as the front sinks
into Oklahoma.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Extreme to catastrophic GFDI values will persist for a couple
more hours before winds decrease. Plan to keep red flag warning
going until expiration at this point. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  61  45  55 /  20  10  30  80
Hutchinson      39  61  42  51 /  10   0  20  70
Newton          42  61  44  52 /  20  10  20  80
ElDorado        46  61  45  55 /  40  10  30  80
Winfield-KWLD   51  62  47  60 /  50  20  40  90
Russell         34  59  37  49 /   0   0  10  50
Great Bend      34  59  38  50 /   0   0  10  50
Salina          36  61  40  51 /  10   0  10  60
McPherson       38  60  41  50 /  10   0  20  70
Coffeyville     56  64  49  61 /  70  70  50  90
Chanute         51  59  47  56 /  70  50  40  90
Iola            48  59  46  55 /  70  40  40  90
Parsons-KPPF    54  62  48  59 /  70  60  50  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-120045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
639 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Very high grassland fire danger will continue for locations west of
the Kansas turnpike until about 9 pm.

The chance of thunderstorms will increase this evening and will
become likely after midnight along and east of I-35. Some of the
storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. An isolated severe
storm with one inch hail and 60 mph winds is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast from
Thursday night through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is possible,
especially over parts of southeast Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight due to the isolated
and limited nature of the threat.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 PM CST WED MAR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             2 S MADISON             38.10N 96.14W
03/10/2021  E0.75 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
736 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ070-110200-
Greenwood KS-
736 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 800 PM CST.

* At 733 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles northwest of Eureka...
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hamilton, Eureka City Lake and Thrall.

LAT...LON 3787 9653 3796 9652 3809 9629 3792 9610
      3782 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 236DEG 46KT 3794 9642

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
749 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ070-110230-
Greenwood KS-
749 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 830 PM CST.

* At 746 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Hamilton, or near Madison...
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

* Nickel to dime size hail...and wind gusts to 45 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Madison and Hamilton.

LAT...LON 3794 9616 3808 9630 3817 9613 3817 9596
      3801 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 238DEG 46KT 3805 9615

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
807 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ070-110215-
Greenwood KS-
807 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 815 PM CST.

* At 805 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Hamilton, or 8 miles north of
  Eureka...moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts to 40 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eureka City Lake.

LAT...LON 3788 9629 3795 9637 3801 9621 3796 9616
      3794 9613 3790 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 246DEG 37KT 3795 9625

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
829 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ069-070-094-110300-
Butler KS-Greenwood KS-Elk KS-
829 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Northwestern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 900 PM CST.

* At 827 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Latham, or 11 miles southeast
  of Leon...moving northeast at 50 mph.

* Dime to nickel size hail...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eureka, Severy, Climax, Piedmont and Beaumont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9653 3762 9672 3787 9633 3762 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 233DEG 52KT 3760 9660

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
836 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

KSZ069-093-110245-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-
836 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 845 PM CST.

* At 833 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Latham, or 14 miles southeast
  of Leon...moving east at 45 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Atlanta and Latham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 9682 3758 9662 3749 9652 3744 9653
      3739 9671
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 248DEG 41KT 3749 9668

BUTLER