Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
512 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 512 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Strong heating and dew points in the middle to upper 70s has resulted
in MUCAPE values of 4000-5000 j/kg and dCAPE of ~1500 j/kg.
Clusters of deep convection have blossomed over the past two hours
along a pre-frontal convergence zone form southeast MO through north
GA. One cluster is dropping southeast through Cullman, Marshall and
Dekalb Counties. Another was dropping southeast through southern
middle TN. The main threats will be frequent lightning, possible
downburst winds and torrential rainfall. Have increased PoPs through
early this evening for these trends. Expect a decline after sunset,
but have low PoPs lingering through mid evening.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

The broad upper ridge will continue to shift back west (thankfully)
over the weekend as the deepening upper trough digs south through the
Appalachians. This will continue northwest flow aloft, typically
accompanied by more active weather for this time of the year. Will
keep slight chances for showers and storms in the forecast Saturday
afternoon as well, mainly diurnally driven. Have issued a Heat
Advisory for the entire forecast area tomorrow, as afternoon heat
indices climb to the 105-107 degree range. This should be the last
day this product is needed for a while, as an increase in cloud cover
as well as showers and storms comes on Sunday ahead of a frontal
boundary. Some disagreement among models as far as how widespread
this activity will be, but most agree that at least a weak convergent
zone will be present over the area. Will monitor the potential for a
few stronger storms on Sunday, as upper level flow is a bit stronger
and longevity of thunderstorms increases. Primary hazards with this
activity would be gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will top out in the low 90s on Saturday and upper 80s on
Sunday, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

The initial upper-trough will pivot quickly into the northeastern
United States forcing the cold front further to the south across
portions of Central Alabama. Will still carry scattered to low-end
likely PoPs in the forecast during the afternoon (with the highest
values favoring areas south of the area). A cooler, drier air mass
will then settle into the area for early to mid next week with highs
peaking in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. With
a strong area of high pressure building in from the north, expect
plenty of sunshine and a mostly dry forecast. In this pattern, we
expect below normal temperatures favored -- certainly not a bad way
to kick off the month of August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 512 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Clusters of thunderstorms in southern TN will cross through the KHSV
and KMSL areas through 01Z. This will bring a bout of IFR conditions
due to reduced visibility in +RA. The storms may contain gusty winds
and frequent lightning as well. Later tonight, MVFR conditions may
develop due to BR, and areas of FG may also form. Will update the
TAFs later this evening and at 06Z if trends at KHSV and KMSL become
better defined.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ005>010-016.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ001>010-016.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>004.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...AMP.24
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
216 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-311030-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
216 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Dangerous heat is expected across the Tennessee Valley through early
this evening with peak heat index values between 105 to 113 expected.
An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for northwest Alabama and a
Heat Advisory is in effect for the rest of north Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee until 7 PM CDT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today
with best chances for activity in southern Middle Tennessee and
northeastern Alabama. A few storms may be capable of producing
strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Dangerous heat is expected across the Tennessee Valley again on
Saturday, with peak heat index values in excess of 105 degrees
expected. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area
from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT.

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of damaging
wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are possible late Saturday
night into Sunday.

The coverage of thunderstorms will remain fairly high on Sunday
night and Monday, before diminishing on Monday night as a cold front
crosses the region. Nonetheless, a few thunderstorms will be
possible in the eastern portion of the outlook area through Thursday.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

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