Small Craft Advisory 58, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

With the back edge of this latest round of storms/rain continuing
to move offshore, will be gradually tapering the mention of VCSH/
RA out from most of our inland sites the next hour or so. But, as
for LBX/GLS, will keep precipitation in there until 09Z-ish. Near
term guidance now has the bulk of this ongoing activity lingering
over our coastal waters through the early morning hours and could
help deter the next round of development until late morning/early
afternoon. And did trend TAFS as such. Otherwise spotty MVFR CIGS
are expected around sunrise with CIGS likely remaining on the low
side throughout the day as showers and thunderstorms form and ex-
pand in coverage. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Today is looking almost identical to yesterday with showers and
thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze. A shortwave ejecting
off of a deepening upper level low in West Texas will move across
our area into the evening enhancing the diurnally driven convection.
PWATs are over 2 inches this afternoon, so locally heavy rainfall
will be possible causing ponding along low lying areas. Based short
term PoPs towards the HRRR as it has been initializing fairly well
all day. Precipitation will become largely widespread by the late
afternoon into the evening for most of the area but the immediate
coastline. May want to plan for longer commute times for the evening
rush tonight. There will be a lull in the precipitation late this
evening into tonight, but this won't last long as scattered showers
and thunderstorms fills back in from west to east by day break as
yet another shortwave passes through the area. The upper level
trough becomes a closed low early Friday and begin its slow approach
to Southeast Texas through the day on Friday. There again remains a
chance of locally heavy rain through Friday evening. Grounds are
fairly well saturated from weeks of rainfall, so will need to watch
closely for any flooding concerns. The WPC has placed the western
half of the CWA in a Slight Risk of the area for Excessive Rainfall.
Total rainfall through Friday night will be around 1 to 3 inches
with locally higher amounts possible.

Temperatures through the short term will not vary much thanks to
overcast skies. Low temperatures tonight will dip down to near 70,
then temperatures rise to near 80 in the afternoon tomorrow, then
back down to near 70 Friday night.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      69  79  68  82  69 /  50  80  50  80  50
Houston (IAH)              70  80  70  82  71 /  60  80  60  80  60
Galveston (GLS)            75  81  75  82  76 /  70  70  60  70  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&