River Flood Warning 68, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

043 
WGUS44 KHGX 050148
FLWHGX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Lavaca River near Edna affecting Jackson County.

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box affecting Lee and Burleson 
  Counties.

  San Bernard River near Boling affecting Wharton, Fort Bend and 
  Brazoria Counties.

  Navidad River at Strane Park affecting Jackson County.

For the Middle Yegua Creek...including Dime Box...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Tres Palacios River...including Midfield...Moderate flooding 
is forecast.
For the Navidad River...including Sublime, Speaks, Morales, Strane 
Park...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Lavaca River...including Komensky, Breslau, Hallettsville, 
Edna...Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Saturday morning at 845 AM CDT.

&&


TXC321-481-051400-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0070.210605T0148Z-210606T1500Z/
/MTPT2.2.ER.210604T1851Z.210605T1200Z.210606T0300Z.NO/
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration until late Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* From this evening to late Sunday morning.
* At 8:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:30 PM CDT Friday was 26.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.9 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage late 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins with water 
  well into the flood plain on the right upstream bank and within 
  inches of spilling over the east approach to the bridge at FM 
  456.  The river will be almost one quarter mile wide in the 
  vicinity of the gage.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 26.9 
  feet on 10/25/2002.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

TXC239-051400-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-210608T0534Z/
/EDNT2.2.ER.210604T2036Z.210606T0600Z.210607T1734Z.NO/
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lavaca River near Edna.
* Until early Tuesday morning.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 22.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM CDT Friday was 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 25.1 feet 
  early Sunday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early 
  Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins with the 
  river one third of a mile wide near the Highway 59 bridge flooding 
  secondary roads and bridges along the river. Livestock are 
  isolated and potentially drown.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on 09/16/1974.


&&

LAT...LON 2908 9675 2908 9664 2886 9654 2886 9674

$$

TXC239-051400-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210606T1120Z/
/LSNT2.1.ER.210604T1554Z.210605T0600Z.210605T2320Z.NO/
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Navidad River at Strane Park.
* Until Sunday morning.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 25.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM CDT Friday was 25.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 25.3 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins 
  threatening livestock and property in the river channel. The right 
  approach to the County Road 401 bridge is closed making travel 
  difficult.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.3 
  feet on 06/12/2004.


&&

LAT...LON 2909 9665 2901 9649 2901 9662 2909 9675

$$

TXC039-157-481-051400-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-210609T0652Z/
/BOLT2.2.ER.210604T0529Z.210605T1200Z.210608T1851Z.NO/
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Wednesday 
morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River near Boling.
* Until early Wednesday morning.
* At 8:31 PM CDT Friday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:31 PM CDT Friday was 23.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.0 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage early 
  Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding continues with 
  significant backwater flooding up Peach Creek and minor backwater 
  flooding up West Bernard Creek in Wharton County. Backwater 
  flooding up Snake Creek threatens low lying areas in the Tierra 
  Grande subdivision.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on 01/25/2007.


&&

LAT...LON 2940 9592 2930 9584 2913 9566 2913 9577
      2930 9595 2940 9605

$$

TXC051-287-051400-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-210605T1800Z/
/DMYT2.1.ER.210604T1625Z.210604T2330Z.210605T0600Z.NO/
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box.
* Until early tomorrow afternoon.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:00 PM CDT Friday was 10.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 4.8 feet Wednesday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins as water 
  spills into the flood plain in the vicintiy of the gage. FM 141 
  below the confluence with West Yegua Creek is threatened and 
  backwater flooding up West Yegua and Turkey Creeks in Lee County 
  is likely.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.1 
  feet on 01/03/2019.


&&

LAT...LON 3039 9698 3038 9690 3036 9674 3027 9674
      3029 9690 3030 9698

$$

767 
WGUS84 KHGX 051930
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Navidad River at Strane Park affecting Jackson County.

For the Navidad River...Strane Park...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 230 AM CDT.

&&


TXC239-060730-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210606T1342Z/
/LSNT2.1.ER.210604T1554Z.210605T0730Z.210606T0142Z.NO/
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Navidad River at Strane Park.
* Until tomorrow morning.
* At 1:15 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 25.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 1:15 PM CDT Saturday was 25.4 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  evening and continue falling to 10.0 feet early Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins with water 
  well into the flood plain and threatening the west approach to the 
  bridge at County Road 401.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.1 
  feet on 05/22/2015.


&&

LAT...LON 2909 9665 2901 9649 2901 9662 2909 9675

$$

087 
WGUS84 KHGX 060144
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Navidad River at Strane Park affecting Jackson County.

  Lavaca River near Edna affecting Jackson County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Brazos River near Rosharon affecting Fort Bend and Brazoria 
  Counties.

  Navasota River near Normangee affecting Madison, Brazos and 
  Grimes Counties.

  San Bernard River Near East Bernard affecting Wharton, Fort Bend, 
  Austin and Colorado Counties.

  San Bernard River near Boling affecting Wharton, Fort Bend and 
  Brazoria Counties.

  Trinity River at Riverside affecting Walker, San Jacinto, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

  Trinity River at Liberty affecting Liberty County.

  Trinity River near Moss Bluff affecting Chambers and Liberty 
  Counties.

For the Trinity River...including Crockett, Riverside, Romayor, 
Goodrich, Liberty, Moss Bluff...Moderate flooding is forecast.
For the Brazos River...including West Columbia, Bryan, Bellville, 
Hempstead, San Felipe, Richmond, Rosharon...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the San Bernard River...including Sweeny, East Bernard, Boling...
Moderate flooding is forecast.
For the Lavaca River...including Komensky, Breslau, Hallettsville, 
Edna...Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Sunday morning at 845 AM CDT.

&&


TXC039-157-061345-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-210609T0600Z/
/ROST2.1.ER.210605T1346Z.210607T0000Z.210608T1800Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Wednesday 
morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Brazos River near Rosharon.
* Until early Wednesday morning.
* At 8:01 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 44.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 43.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:01 PM CDT Saturday was 44.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 45.4 feet 
  tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage early 
  Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 46.5 feet, Minor lowland flooding continues. Livestock 
  should be removed from low areas in the flood plain.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 45.5 
  feet on 05/19/2004.


&&

LAT...LON 2943 9549 2932 9552 2919 9552 2919 9563
      2932 9566 2943 9561

$$

TXC239-061345-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-210608T0200Z/
/EDNT2.2.ER.210604T2036Z.210606T0600Z.210607T1400Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Monday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lavaca River near Edna.
* Until late Monday evening.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 26.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM CDT Saturday was 26.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.1 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins with the 
  river one third of a mile wide near the Highway 59 bridge flooding 
  secondary roads and bridges along the river. Livestock are 
  isolated and potentially drown.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 26.2 
  feet on 11/02/1981.


&&

LAT...LON 2908 9675 2908 9664 2886 9654 2886 9674

$$

TXC239-061345-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210606T1556Z/
/LSNT2.1.ER.210604T1554Z.210605T0730Z.210606T0356Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Navidad River at Strane Park.
* Until late tomorrow morning.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM CDT Saturday was 25.4 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this evening and continue falling to 10.0 feet Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins with water 
  well into the flood plain and threatening the west approach to the 
  bridge at County Road 401.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 24.3 
  feet on 06/21/2018.


&&

LAT...LON 2909 9665 2901 9649 2901 9662 2909 9675

$$

TXC015-089-157-481-061345-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-210608T0600Z/
/EBBT2.1.ER.210604T1502Z.210605T2000Z.210607T1800Z.UU/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River Near East Bernard.
* Until early Tuesday morning.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:00 PM CDT Saturday was 18.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall to 18.2 feet and then begin rising 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then rise again to 18.4 feet 
  tomorrow morning. It will fall below flood stage early Monday 
  afternoon to 15.6 feet and then begin rising Tuesday evening. It 
  will then rise again to 15.7 feet Wednesday morning. It will fall 
  again and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage with minor roads along the river inundated.  
  Backwater flooding up Britt Branch and Bratcher Slough begins.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.4 
  feet on 12/10/2018.


&&

LAT...LON 2970 9625 2970 9605 2940 9592 2940 9605
      2952 9611

$$

TXC039-157-481-061345-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-210610T0321Z/
/BOLT2.2.ER.210604T0529Z.210605T0415Z.210609T1520Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Wednesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Bernard River near Boling.
* Until late Wednesday evening.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:00 PM CDT Saturday was 23.7 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 22.4 feet 
  tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage late 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins upstream 
  from the gage with significant backwater flooding up Peach Creek 
  in Wharton County inundating low lying areas. Minor backwater 
  flooding up Snake Creek in Fort Bend County begins.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 22.8 
  feet on 05/20/2000.


&&

LAT...LON 2940 9592 2930 9584 2913 9566 2913 9577
      2930 9595 2940 9605

$$

TXC041-185-313-061345-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-210608T0900Z/
/NGET2.1.ER.210603T0145Z.210604T0230Z.210607T2100Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Navasota River near Normangee.
* Until early Tuesday morning.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 16.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:00 PM CDT Saturday was 17.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Monday 
  afternoon and continue falling to 13.3 feet Thursday evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding continues with 
  widespread inundation of the flood plain in the vicinity of the 
  gage with the river more than 1 mile wide. Long Trussel Road in 
  northeast Brazos County below State Highway 21 is threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 16.2 
  feet on 12/11/2018.

&&


              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Navasota River
Normangee     15.0  16.2  Sat 8 pm CDT 15.4  14.9  14.5         





&&

LAT...LON 3111 9622 3097 9619 3087 9614 3087 9624
      3097 9629 3111 9633

$$

TXC373-407-455-471-061345-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RVRT2.2.ER.210519T0850Z.210607T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River at Riverside.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 136.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 133.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 7:30 PM CDT Saturday was 136.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 136.6 feet 
  Monday morning.
* Impact...At 136.8 feet, Moderate lowland flooding continues as the 
  approaches to the FM 3478 bridge upstream of the gage are 
  inundated and impassable. The lowest homes in the Green Rich 
  Shores Subdivision are flooded with up to one half foot of water. 
  Thomas Lake Road remains flooded and the lowest roads into 
  properties off FM 980 northwest of Riverside are inundated and 
  impassable.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 136.7 
  feet on 03/21/2016.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Trinity River
Riverside    133.5 136.0 Sat 7 pm CDT 136.4 136.6 136.5        





&&

LAT...LON 3097 9584 3096 9562 3093 9528 3082 9528
      3087 9562 3088 9584

$$

TXC291-061345-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBYT2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.210531T0730Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River at Liberty.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 28.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 7:15 PM CDT Saturday was 28.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood 
  stage at 28.1 feet.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, Major lowland flooding begins as homes in 
  several subdivisions above Liberty begin flooding. Extensive 
  flooding over much of Liberty County can be expected with each 
  incremental rise in the river.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 28.2 
  feet on 07/03/2004.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Trinity River
Liberty      26.0  28.1  Sat 7 pm CDT 28.1  28.1  28.2         





&&

LAT...LON 3027 9475 2996 9470 2996 9487 3027 9489

$$

TXC071-291-061345-
/O.CON.KHGX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MBFT2.1.ER.210515T1400Z.210531T1145Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trinity River near Moss Bluff.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 7:30 PM CDT Saturday was 14.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood 
  stage at 14.0 feet.
* Impact...At 15.2 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins in the 
  vicinity of the gage.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.1 
  feet on 11/29/2004.

&&


             Fld   Observed           Forecasts (7 pm CDT)     
Location     Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Trinity River
Moss Bluff   12.2  14.1  Sat 7 pm CDT 14.0  14.0  14.0         





&&

LAT...LON 2996 9470 2979 9466 2979 9479 2996 9487

$$

894 
WGUS84 KHGX 060740
FLSHGX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 
240 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede. 

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route. 

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few 
days.



Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC239-060810-
/O.CAN.KHGX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210606T1556Z/
/LSNT2.1.ER.210604T1554Z.210605T0730Z.210606T0250Z.NO/
240 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

The Flood Warning is canceled for
  The Navidad River at Strane Park
* At 0215 AM Sunday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* The river has fallen below flood stage.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall quickly through early evening. 




&&
                     Flood  Observed             Forecast 6 AM
Location             Stage  Stage   Day Time      Mon    Tue    Wed    Thu

Navidad River
  Strane Park         24.0   22.4   Sun 02 AM     15.2   13.9   11.2   10.0
 
&& 
 
LAT...LON  2909 9665 2901 9649 2901 9662 2909 9675


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
504 AM CDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...
Heavy rains moved out into the Gulf last night and early this
morning. But a low moving along the coast early this morning is
also producing strong gusty onshore winds. These winds should be
relaxing by mid morning as low fills in and shifts east. Storms
this morning should be focused mainly over the coastal areas.
Daytime heating will help in the development of showers and
eventually thunderstorms late morning but more likely this
afternoon and evening. At this point the short term guidance has
really struggled on where rainfall was occurring and where it was
to develop and have gone with the assumption that the airmass got
worked over big time yesterday with the 2-6" of rain and moisture
shifted into the Gulf - the 925-850 flow will be increasing late
this afternoon and becoming more southerly pulling back the
moisture. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible but
the heavy rainfall/greater rates will likely not reach the levels
of yesterday. The forecast could need some serious alteration as
confidence is low with how this plays out as storms could mainly
focus in the Gulf ... with the possibility that coverage is less
and lighter inland. Holding off on a Flash Flood Watch for now.

Tonight a s/w moves in from the southwest and this will likely
lead to an increase in showers and thunderstorms and then surge
inland Saturday 8am to 1pm. This may warrant a Flash Flood watch
if this continues to be the forecast as the models home in on the
solution. Rainfall rates will probably be greater on Saturday
gradually shifting east into the nighttime hours.

Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with the abundant
cloud cover and periods of rain.

45

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The prevailing upper trough will continue its slow westward jog,
with its axis reaching SE TX by Sunday. While this will take the
area out of the left exit region of the associated upper jet streak
(thus losing favorable upper divergence for sustained heavy
rainfall), sustained onshore winds will nonetheless continue to
supply the area with ample Gulf moisture. Total PWs will remain in
the 1.75-2.0 in range on Sunday, with these values persisting into
the early part of next week. A series of shortwaves embedded within
the upper flow will continue to traverse the base of the longwave
trough, resulting in multiple periods of showers and storms on
Sunday and Monday. With upper-level support now favoring areas to
our east, QPF values across global model solutions diminish and the
threat of heavier rainfall diminishes slightly. Despite this, those
with any travel or outdoor plans should continue to monitor the
latest forecast information as additional clarity should be gained
when we enter into the time domain of mesoscale models later this
weekend.

While the amplitude of the upper trough looks to diminish slightly
as it continues its gradual eastward motion into the early part of
next week, a tightening of the surface pressure gradient as lee
cyclogenesis occurs in the eastern Rockies will increase onshore
flow over the Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF indicates a more robust increase
of total PWs compared to the GFS, showing 2+ in values over much of
SE TX by late Monday. Nonetheless, with values at least in the
vicinity of 2 in as additional shortwave axes traverse the region,
the potential for locally heavy downpours will continue through
Tuesday. WPC has backed off slightly on QPF values in accordance
with recent model trends, forecasting values of 3-5" over the next 5
days. That being said, we continue to monitor the potential for
flash flooding as this situation evolves in the coming days.

Upper ridging will begin to build into the central CONUS, albeit
slowly, by mid-week. Despite this, precipitation chances will
continue with the support of diurnal processes as moisture
availability remains plentiful. Drier conditions look to finally
take hold towards the end of the week.

Temperature forecast remains similar to the trend of late, with
daytime highs generally unchanged in the mid-upper 80s and nighttime
lows in the lower to mid-70s.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR closer to the coast with strong east/southeast winds early
this morning. Area of showers near Matagorda bay on the back side
of surface low will move up the coast bringing impacts to
LBX/GLS/SGR/HOU after 13z. With heating today expect ceilings
mainly MVFR to expand inland and showers followed by scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. Another shortwave arrives tonight
and will bring back showers and thunderstorms overnight into
Saturday.
45
&&

.MARINE...
Messy with surface low near the coast and have hoisted an SCA for
the nearshore waters and Galveston bay. Storms over the Gulf move
east and start reloading for the next system arriving from the
southwest Saturday. Should be active over the Gulf waters Saturday
as this moist axis traveses the coastal waters. Winds of 5-15
knots should prevail through the weekend.
45

&&

.TROPICAL...
Still quiet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  77  68  80  69  85 /  60  60  80  50  60
Houston (IAH)          77  70  80  71  85 /  70  60  80  40  60
Galveston (GLS)        78  75  80  76  83 /  70  80  80  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay.

&&

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Cady