River Flood Warning 6, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

183 
WGUS84 KHGX 011432
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
932 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

For the Tres Palacios River...including Midfield...Moderate flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

&&


TXC321-481-020245-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210504T0400Z/
/MTPT2.2.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0600Z.210503T1600Z.NO/
932 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Monday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 25.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:30 AM CDT Saturday was 25.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 28.7 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, Major lowland flooding begins as both 
  approaches to the FM 456 bridge are cut off and water is over the 
  road on FM 1468 near Clemville, FM 2431 east of Midfield, and FM 
  2853 southeast of Blessing with several homes in the El Dorado 
  Country subdivision upstream and Oak Grove and Tres Palacios Oaks 
  downstream flooded.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 28.7 
  feet on 09/23/1997.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

012 
WGUS84 KHGX 011918
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
218 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

For the Tres Palacios River...including Midfield...Moderate flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

&&


TXC321-481-020730-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTPT2.2.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0600Z.210503T0742Z.NO/
218 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* Until further notice.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 27.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 1:30 PM CDT Saturday was 27.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 28.4 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, Water is over the road on FM 1468 near 
  Clemville, FM 2431 east of Midfield, and FM 2853 southeast of 
  Blessing all in Matagorda County with homes in the subdivisions of 
  El Dorado Country upstream and Oak Grove and Tres Palacios Oaks 
  downstream threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 28.4 
  feet on 10/14/2004.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

317 
WGUS84 KHGX 020255
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
955 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

For the Tres Palacios River...including Midfield...Moderate flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Sunday morning at 1000 AM CDT.

&&


TXC321-481-021500-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210503T1704Z/
/MTPT2.2.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0600Z.210503T0503Z.NO/
955 PM CDT Sat May 1 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 9:30 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 28.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 9:30 PM CDT Saturday was 28.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 28.1 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, Water is over the road on FM 1468 near 
  Clemville, FM 2431 east of Midfield, and FM 2853 southeast of 
  Blessing all in Matagorda County with homes in the subdivisions of 
  El Dorado Country upstream and Oak Grove and Tres Palacios Oaks 
  downstream threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 28.1 
  feet on 02/04/1992.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

780 
WGUS84 KHGX 021412
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
912 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

  Lavaca River near Edna affecting Jackson County.

For the Tres Palacios River...including Midfield...Moderate flooding 
is forecast.
For the Lavaca River...including Komensky, Breslau, Hallettsville, 
Edna...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 915 PM CDT.

&&


TXC239-030215-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EDNT2.1.ER.210502T2221Z.210503T0600Z.210503T1654Z.NO/
912 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lavaca River near Edna.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this afternoon to a crest of 21.9 feet just after midnight 
  tonight. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, Flooding along the Lavaca River reaches 
  well into the lower floodplain backing up sloughs and low areas.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.9 
  feet on 07/02/2004.


&&

LAT...LON 2908 9675 2908 9664 2886 9654 2886 9674

$$

TXC321-481-030215-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210503T1720Z/
/MTPT2.2.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0430Z.210503T0520Z.NO/
912 AM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 27.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:30 AM CDT Sunday was 28.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 6.7 feet Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, Water is over the road on FM 1468 near 
  Clemville, FM 2431 east of Midfield, and FM 2853 southeast of 
  Blessing all in Matagorda County with homes in the subdivisions of 
  El Dorado Country upstream and Oak Grove and Tres Palacios Oaks 
  downstream threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 27.5 
  feet on 02/22/1990.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

964 
WGUS84 KHGX 021844
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
144 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

For the Tres Palacios River...including Midfield...Moderate flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 145 AM CDT.

&&


TXC321-481-030645-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTPT2.2.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0430Z.210503T0617Z.NO/
144 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* Until further notice.
* At 12:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 27.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 12:30 PM CDT Sunday was 28.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  tonight and continue falling to 7.9 feet early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, Water is over the road on FM 1468 near 
  Clemville, FM 2431 east of Midfield, and FM 2853 southeast of 
  Blessing all in Matagorda County with homes in the subdivisions of 
  El Dorado Country upstream and Oak Grove and Tres Palacios Oaks 
  downstream threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 27.2 
  feet on 07/17/2003.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

270 
WGUS84 KHGX 030109
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
809 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

  West Mustang Creek near Ganado affecting Wharton and Jackson 
  Counties.

  Lavaca River near Edna affecting Jackson County.

For the Tres Palacios River...including Midfield...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Lavaca River...including Edna...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Monday morning at 815 AM CDT.

&&


TXC239-481-031315-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210503T1314Z/
/GNDT2.1.ER.210502T1105Z.210502T1745Z.210503T0113Z.NO/
809 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the West Mustang Creek near Ganado.
* Until Monday morning.
* At 7:45 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 7:45 PM CDT Sunday was 20.4 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  evening and continue falling to 6.0 feet Friday evening.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.1 
  feet on 07/03/2007.


&&

LAT...LON 2918 9636 2907 9642 2903 9642 2903 9652
      2907 9652 2918 9646

$$

TXC239-031315-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210504T0300Z/
/EDNT2.1.ER.210503T0900Z.210503T1200Z.210503T1500Z.NO/
809 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lavaca River near Edna.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 20.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tonight to a crest of 21.1 feet tomorrow morning. It will then 
  fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins with flow 
  backing through preipheral channels adjacent to the river and 
  reaches into sloughs and low areas.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.1 
  feet on 03/30/2012.


&&

LAT...LON 2908 9675 2908 9664 2886 9654 2886 9674

$$

TXC321-481-031315-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210504T0127Z/
/MTPT2.2.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0430Z.210503T1326Z.NO/
809 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 26.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 7:30 PM CDT Sunday was 28.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow morning and continue falling to 8.9 feet Friday evening.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins with water 
  well into the flood plain on the right upstream bank and within 
  inches of spilling over the east approach to the bridge at FM 
  456.  The river will be almost one quarter mile wide in the 
  vicinity of the gage.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 26.5 
  feet on 02/09/2005.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

785 
WGUS84 KHGX 031440
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
940 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

  Sandy Creek near Cordele affecting Wharton, Jackson and Colorado 
  Counties.

For the Sandy Creek...including Cordele...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to 
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do 
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity 
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid 
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and 
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay 
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further 
updates.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 945 PM CDT.

&&


TXC089-239-481-040245-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CODT2.1.ER.210502T1133Z.210503T0445Z.210503T1840Z.NO/
940 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Sandy Creek near Cordele.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 AM CDT Monday was 19.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  afternoon and continue falling to 7.3 feet Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding begins. Several 
  roads and bridges in the floodplain are flooded and dangerous and 
  livestock in the floodplain are threatened.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.5 
  feet on 07/06/2007.


&&

LAT...LON 2925 9644 2916 9649 2906 9652 2906 9662
      2916 9659 2925 9654

$$

TXC321-481-040245-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTPT2.1.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0430Z.210503T1611Z.NO/
940 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 24.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:30 AM CDT Monday was 27.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this morning and continue falling to 9.3 feet Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins as water 
  spills into the flood plain on the right upstream bank and covers 
  the meander point at the meander curve.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 24.5 
  feet on 01/27/1992.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

564 
WGUS84 KHGX 031853
FLSHGX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
153 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Tres Palacios River near Midfield affecting Wharton and Matagorda 
  Counties.

  Sandy Creek near Cordele affecting Wharton, Jackson and Colorado 
  Counties.

TXC089-239-481-032000-
/O.CAN.KHGX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210503T1853Z/
/CODT2.1.ER.210502T1133Z.210503T0445Z.210503T1840Z.NO/
153 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Sandy Creek near Cordele has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Sandy Creek near Cordele.
* At 1:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 17.8 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 8.3 feet early 
  Saturday afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 2925 9644 2916 9649 2906 9652 2906 9662
      2916 9659 2925 9654

$$

TXC321-481-032000-
/O.CAN.KHGX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210503T1853Z/
/MTPT2.1.ER.210501T1141Z.210502T0430Z.210503T1611Z.NO/
153 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Tres Palacios River near Midfield has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Tres Palacios River near Midfield.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 10.5 feet early 
  Saturday afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 2905 9609 2892 9612 2884 9610 2884 9620
      2892 9622 2905 9620

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

.AVIATION...

For the 01/00Z TAFs, some lingering -SHRA can be expected this evening,
but still anticipating increasing SHRA/TSRA coverage to develop overnight
in/around the Matagorda Bay area and to spread to the E and NE likely
resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities. Models generally
have decreasing coverage tomorrow afternoon, so for now only indicating
-SHRA along with MVFR ceilings.  42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

A complicated weather pattern will persist through Saturday night as
a slow moving upper level low over northern Mexico slowly moves
across the state. The cut-off upper level low will get nudged
eastward on Saturday as a short wave trough dives into the Great
Basin. The upper low will get sheared out as it moves east but not
before it induces surface low pressure to develop over south-central
Texas. The position of the upper level low will favor a splitting
jet structure over SE TX tonight and Saturday.

Tonight, fcst soundings show the evening starting out on the dry
side with dry air noted near 850 mb and in the 700-500 mb layer. The
moisture profile begins to re-saturate between 06-09z with PW values
once again increasing to between 1.80 and 2.00 inches. Low level
convergence will increase near Matagorda Bay closest to the surface
low. Models are pinging the SW zones tonight for heavy rain and this
seems reasonable based on the splitting jet and strong low level
convergence. Not sure how far N-NE the axis of heavy precip will get
tonight but first guess is that the heaviest rain will remain SW of
a CLL-HOU-GLS line. The rain will likely continue into Saturday
morning before waning in the afternoon. Have made some small
modifications to the Flash Flood Watch and removed areas around
Galveston Bay. This area did not receive much rain today and it
looks like the core of the heaviest rain will remain SW of this
area. The surface low will move north and pull a warm front across
the area Saturday afternoon. There should be a brief lull in the
precipitation in the wake of the warm front Saturday afternoon but
precipitation should increase again Saturday evening as the upper
level low pushes north. Fcst soundings show skinny CAPE and a super
saturated looking moisture profile and PW values again 2.00 inches
which suggests heavy rain will again be possible. One caveat for
Saturday night is the jet structure. The ECMWF still shows a
splitting jet but the NAM and the GFS don't show much of a split in
the upper level wind field and they also suggest that SE TX will lie
in a subsident region of the jet. Have leaned toward the CAMs and
the ECMWF for consistency which all have the more favorable jet
structure. Moisture profiles begin to dry from the top down between
09-12z Sunday with PW values falling to 1.50 inches by 12z Sunday
and rainfall should begin to diminish by sunrise Sunday. 43

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Rain chances decrease from west to east throughout Sunday
morning/afternoon as surface low pressure slides off to the east and
falls apart. A new developing low in north Texas will bring
southwesterly winds to the area on Sunday afternoon. The enhanced
WAA will start an upward temperature trend that starts with highs in
the mid 80s on Sunday and the upper 80s and...(sorry everyone) low
90s for Monday. Just for perspective, our normal high temperatures
for this time of the year are in the low 80s. 850mb temperatures on
Monday afternoon will range from 22-25 degrees Celsius, so highs in
the 90s are definitely supported. This will not be an extended
period of above normal *ahem* hot temperatures thanks to a cold
front that will pass through the region on Tuesday. The GFS and
ECMWF are in good agreement on FROPA timing with the front entering
the CWA just before noon on Tuesday and off the coast by Tuesday
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as it
moves through the area with higher PoPs for the eastern portion of
the CWA. PW values will be near 2" so locally heavy rain is a
possibility, but this is not expected to be a prolonged rainfall
event. Sunday and Monday's hot temperatures and partial sunshine
should help dry the soils a bit in advance of Tuesday's rainfall.

Following FROPA, PoPs drop to essentially zero and the cloud cover
that filled in ahead of the front moves out of the area as we
transition into a dry weather pattern with the jet stream remaining
north of Texas through the end of the week. Temperatures are
expected to remain rather consistent throughout the end of the work
week as well with north to northeast winds prevailing through
Friday. From Tuesday through Friday, high temperatures will range
from the low-to-mid 80s with low temperatures in the upper 50s/low
60s. Couple that with mostly sunny skies and no rain chances on each
of these days as well and we may begin to feel a little deja vu.

Batiste

MARINE...

Moderate east winds continue to prevail through tonight before
transitioning to an onshore flow by Saturday afternoon/evening.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight
through tomorrow morning, especially for Matagorda Bay and our
western marine zones in the Gulf of Mexico. Winds on Saturday
morning through Sunday will likely reach the advisory threshold,
especially for the bays and nearshore waters. Winds become
southwesterly Sunday through Monday as low pressure develops in
north Texas. Offshore seas expected to build up to 5 to 6 feet by
Sunday afternoon. Our next cold front will push through the coastal
waters on late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning and bring a
round of showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary.
Offshore winds will prevail in the wake of this front through the
end of the week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  75  65  84  69 /  70  80  80  30   0
Houston (IAH)              67  76  68  85  72 /  50  80  70  40   0
Galveston (GLS)            70  74  71  81  74 /  70  70  70  40   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
     Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
     Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
     Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
     Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...
     Washington...Wharton.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
     Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
     Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&