Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will track across the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, bringing widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms. In its wake, drying high pressure will spread across
the region keeping conditions dry and mostly sunny through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM: Wedge has eroded with convection moving in from the
west ahead of the approaching cold front. The stronger showers/
thunderstorms have produced very gusty winds. Mesoanalysis shows
some sbCAPE has developed ahead of the convection. Values should
remain below 500 J/kg for most of the area, but the plot shows
values above 250 common outside of the mountains. 0-1 km shear and
helicity remain high as well. Therefore, will have to watch the line
of convection as it moves out of the mountains for damaging winds.
There have been bowing segments along the line and these could
produce a brief, tornadic spin up given the shear and helicity
profiles, even with the lack of a boundary over the area.

Gusty SW winds ahead of the front will become gusty NW behind it.
Will extend the Wind Advisory in time through the tonight period as
winds behind the front should be just as strong across the higher
elevations. Lows will generally be near normal as drier and cooler
air move in behind the front with clearing skies.

Dry and cool high pressure builds over the area Sunday with
diminishing northeasterly wind and sunny skies. The cooler air mass
will lead to highs near or a little below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Saturday: The western periphery of the upper-
level trough located across the Mid-Atlantic will be tracking off
the East Coast at the beginning of the forecast period. Heights will
then gradually build across the eastern and central US overnight
Sunday into Tuesday in response to a low pressure system and
associated digging upper-level trough tracking towards the West
Coast. Meanwhile at the sfc, high pressure will be in place across
the East Coast and Southeast US through the short term leading to
dry and clear conditions as well as gradually warming temps. Good
radiational cooling will be present during the overnight hours
throughout the forecast period allowing lows to dip down into the
upper 20s and mid 30s. Lows Sunday night will be a few degrees below
normal. Monday night lows will be just above normal across the mtns
and near to just below normal elsewhere. High temps will be 3 to 8
degrees above normal Monday becoming 8 to 13 degrees above normal
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Saturday: The warm-up trend continues throughout
the much of the extended forecast period as upper-level ridging and
sfc high pressure remain in control of the weather pattern. 850 mb
flow will be southwesterly Wednesday into Thursday allowing for an
influx low-level moisture which leads to increased cloud cover.
Skies will remain mostly sunny Wednesday becoming partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy at times Thursday. Moisture influx increases at the
sfc and aloft Thursday evening into Friday leading to mostly cloudy
skies. This influx of moisture aloft is due to an approaching cold
front out of the west. This front will cause the ridge to gradually
break down Friday as a cold front pushes eastward. Right now it is
looking like the FROPA could stall just west of the foreast area at
the end of the extended forecast period. With models not in good
agreement regarding when the front would push through the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia, decided to cap PoPs to a slight
chance east of the mountains and a slight chance to chance across
the mountains Thursday evening into Saturday. Temps will remain
above normal throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Wedge has eroded with only vsby restrictions
from the convection moving into the area. IFR cig restrictions gone
as well. MVFR cigs and VFR vsby will be the general conditions
outside of convection...with lower restrictions possible as
convection moves through. Gusty SW winds will continue ahead of the
approaching cold front becoming gusty NW behind it. Isolated TSRA
are in the convection...but any thunder would be short lived at the
terminals...so haven't included for now. Precip and low clouds end
with FROPA late this afternoon or early this evening. Skies clear
overnight with diminishing winds by morning. N to NE wind expected
on Sunday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure returns with VFR conditions continuing
through early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 6 AM EST Sunday for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
240 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A strong cold front will cross the Carolinas and northeast Georgia
this afternoon and early evening. Widespread rainfall and isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front. A few
storms may become severe and produce damaging straight line winds. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064-121945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
240 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

SCZ007-011>013-019-112115-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
336 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Laurens, southern
Spartanburg, Abbeville, Union and central Greenwood Counties through
415 PM EST...

At 335 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southwest of Spartanburg to 7 miles
northwest of Laurens to 13 miles west of Abbeville. Movement was east
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Laurens, Union, Abbeville, Clinton, Woodruff, Pacolet,
Ware Shoals, Monarch Mill and Ninety Six.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 8272 3420 8274 3454 8224 3485 8209
      3491 8171 3490 8165 3488 8163 3488 8152
      3484 8146 3482 8149 3477 8145 3473 8149
      3464 8142 3449 8158 3453 8165 3437 8178
      3430 8190 3420 8194 3419 8192 3412 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 264DEG 46KT 3479 8201 3459 8210 3422 8261

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
343 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-504-508-SCZ007>009-013-112130-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Gaston NC-Alexander NC-
Catawba NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
343 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Catawba, southeastern
Rutherford, Alexander, Lincoln, Gaston, northwestern Davie, Iredell,
Cleveland, northwestern Rowan, southeastern Burke, northwestern
Union, northwestern York, northern Spartanburg and Cherokee Counties
through 430 PM EST...

At 343 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Wilkesboro to 8 miles west
of Spartanburg. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Hickory, Spartanburg, Statesville, Shelby, Newton, Gaffney,
Lincolnton, Taylorsville and Kings Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3478 8156 3492 8216 3576 8139 3577 8135
      3582 8134 3604 8113 3603 8107 3606 8098
      3604 8049 3606 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 277DEG 22KT 3604 8109 3498 8207

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
413 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

SCZ007-011>014-019-112215-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
Spartanburg SC-
413 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Laurens,
Chester, southeastern Spartanburg, southeastern Abbeville, Union and
Greenwood Counties through 515 PM EST...

At 412 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Union to 6 miles southeast
of Laurens to 3 miles southeast of Abbeville. Movement was east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Union, Chester, Abbeville, Clinton, Monarch Mill, Ninety
Six, Joanna, Buffalo and Jonesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 8249 3446 8202 3490 8167 3488 8163
      3488 8152 3484 8146 3482 8147 3482 8098
      3456 8119 3457 8142 3450 8142 3449 8149
      3445 8154 3453 8165 3437 8178 3430 8190
      3420 8194 3413 8187 3398 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 282DEG 21KT 3488 8159 3445 8193 3415 8234

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
416 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-SCZ008-009-013-112215-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-
416 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Cabarrus,
southeastern Catawba, Davie, eastern Lincoln, Iredell, Mecklenburg,
southeastern Cleveland, Rowan, Gaston, York, eastern Cherokee and
northeastern Union Counties through 515 PM EST...

At 416 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles southwest of Yadkinville to 11 miles
south of Gaffney. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Rock Hill, Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis,
Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Statesville, Lincolnton and York.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8084 3508 8091 3501 8091 3495 8087
      3482 8097 3484 8175 3605 8079 3604 8049
      3606 8046 3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038
      3590 8037 3588 8042 3584 8039 3583 8049
      3574 8046 3572 8034 3565 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 268DEG 28KT 3608 8074 3491 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RM

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