Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will track across the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, bringing widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms. In its wake, drying high pressure will spread across
the region keeping conditions dry and mostly sunny through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM: Wedge has eroded with convection moving in from the
west ahead of the approaching cold front. The stronger showers/
thunderstorms have produced very gusty winds. Mesoanalysis shows
some sbCAPE has developed ahead of the convection. Values should
remain below 500 J/kg for most of the area, but the plot shows
values above 250 common outside of the mountains. 0-1 km shear and
helicity remain high as well. Therefore, will have to watch the line
of convection as it moves out of the mountains for damaging winds.
There have been bowing segments along the line and these could
produce a brief, tornadic spin up given the shear and helicity
profiles, even with the lack of a boundary over the area.

Gusty SW winds ahead of the front will become gusty NW behind it.
Will extend the Wind Advisory in time through the tonight period as
winds behind the front should be just as strong across the higher
elevations. Lows will generally be near normal as drier and cooler
air move in behind the front with clearing skies.

Dry and cool high pressure builds over the area Sunday with
diminishing northeasterly wind and sunny skies. The cooler air mass
will lead to highs near or a little below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Saturday: The western periphery of the upper-
level trough located across the Mid-Atlantic will be tracking off
the East Coast at the beginning of the forecast period. Heights will
then gradually build across the eastern and central US overnight
Sunday into Tuesday in response to a low pressure system and
associated digging upper-level trough tracking towards the West
Coast. Meanwhile at the sfc, high pressure will be in place across
the East Coast and Southeast US through the short term leading to
dry and clear conditions as well as gradually warming temps. Good
radiational cooling will be present during the overnight hours
throughout the forecast period allowing lows to dip down into the
upper 20s and mid 30s. Lows Sunday night will be a few degrees below
normal. Monday night lows will be just above normal across the mtns
and near to just below normal elsewhere. High temps will be 3 to 8
degrees above normal Monday becoming 8 to 13 degrees above normal
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Saturday: The warm-up trend continues throughout
the much of the extended forecast period as upper-level ridging and
sfc high pressure remain in control of the weather pattern. 850 mb
flow will be southwesterly Wednesday into Thursday allowing for an
influx low-level moisture which leads to increased cloud cover.
Skies will remain mostly sunny Wednesday becoming partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy at times Thursday. Moisture influx increases at the
sfc and aloft Thursday evening into Friday leading to mostly cloudy
skies. This influx of moisture aloft is due to an approaching cold
front out of the west. This front will cause the ridge to gradually
break down Friday as a cold front pushes eastward. Right now it is
looking like the FROPA could stall just west of the foreast area at
the end of the extended forecast period. With models not in good
agreement regarding when the front would push through the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia, decided to cap PoPs to a slight
chance east of the mountains and a slight chance to chance across
the mountains Thursday evening into Saturday. Temps will remain
above normal throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Wedge has eroded with only vsby restrictions
from the convection moving into the area. IFR cig restrictions gone
as well. MVFR cigs and VFR vsby will be the general conditions
outside of convection...with lower restrictions possible as
convection moves through. Gusty SW winds will continue ahead of the
approaching cold front becoming gusty NW behind it. Isolated TSRA
are in the convection...but any thunder would be short lived at the
terminals...so haven't included for now. Precip and low clouds end
with FROPA late this afternoon or early this evening. Skies clear
overnight with diminishing winds by morning. N to NE wind expected
on Sunday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure returns with VFR conditions continuing
through early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 6 AM EST Sunday for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...RWH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
121 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-111900-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Stephens, Habersham,
southwestern Rabun and western Oconee Counties through 200 PM EST...

At 121 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles south of Hiawassee to 7 miles east of
Dawsonville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toccoa, Clayton, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount
Airy, Alto, Tiger and Tallulah Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8362 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
      3468 8364 3471 8364 3474 8362 3477 8363
      3478 8366 3489 8340 3448 8319 3447 8338
      3446 8340 3448 8347 3449 8354 3443 8362
      3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 274DEG 38KT 3479 8378 3442 8398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
148 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-004-005-010-111945-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
148 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Franklin, Stephens,
north central Elbert, central Habersham, south central Rabun, Hart,
western Anderson, southwestern Pickens and Oconee Counties through
245 PM EST...

At 147 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles south of Clayton to near Homer.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clemson, Toccoa, Seneca, Hartwell, Walhalla, Clarkesville,
Carnesville, Anderson, Homeland Park and Central.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340 3448 8345
      3449 8354 3445 8359 3444 8361 3445 8361
      3485 8349 3472 8261 3423 8271 3421 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 285DEG 46KT 3481 8340 3434 8353

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

SCZ002-004>006-010-112000-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Anderson SC-Greater Greenville SC-
229 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Greenville,
north central Anderson, Pickens and east central Oconee Counties
through 300 PM EST...

At 229 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Clemson, or near Six Mile, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Easley, Clemson, Pickens, West Greenville, Berea, Welcome,
Powdersville, Central, Liberty and Norris.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8293 3481 8290 3486 8290 3489 8286
      3500 8254 3499 8253 3498 8255 3498 8251
      3478 8238 3465 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 245DEG 47KT 3481 8285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RM