Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool Canadian high pressure will ridge down from near the Great
Lakes into the early part of the week. Expect dry weather from
tonight into Tuesday.  Moisture increases again in mid week with
showers and thunderstorms returning in the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 237 PM: The cold front was strung out just to the north of
I-85, with a weak sfc wave located over the western Piedmont. An
approaching vort lobe was providing a favorable synoptic environment
for convection. Showers and thunderstorms were developing along
the boundary over the wrn Piedmont of NC and northern Upstate,
where moisture was pooled enough to afford sfc-based CAPE around
1500 J/kg. For the most part, the available shear was located on
the cool side of the boundary with the only overlap right along the
boundary itself. To the south of the front, dCAPE around 800 J/kg
could provide for some strong outflow winds from any storm. Think
the better chances for a severe storm are to the east of the fcst
area into the early evening where buoyancy and shear are a bit
better, but an isolated strong/severe storm will not be ruled out
across the Charlotte metro area mainly, until the front clears the
fcst area during the early evening. A few showers should linger into
the late evening hours while dry air invades from the southwest.

Cooler and drier air will filter in from the N late tonight behind
the front and in the wake of the low. Precip chances may linger in
the upslope areas along the TN border until the moisture dries up
in the pre-dawn hours. Low temps should be at least ten degrees
cooler than previous days. Low level moisture will bring clouds
to the east of the mtns for Sunday morning, but a developing NW
downslope flow will gradually mix them out into the afternoon
as high pressure builds in. High temps are expected to be on the
order of ten degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: Sunday evening into Monday a trough will
be retreating northeast of the CWA while high pressure builds into
the region. This high pressure system will lead to drier conditions
during much of the short term period. While high pressure dominates
in the Mid-Atlantic a low pressure system will be situated over the
Southern Plains throughout the short term. Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening the GFS currently shows an uptick in PoPS along the
NC/TN border while the NAM, Canadian and ECMWF trend dry. The GFS is
picking up on the upslope SE'ly flow off the Atlantic leading to the
potential for mtn precip Tuesday. Decided to keep a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms across the NC/TN border in
collaboration with neighboring WFOs. Highs Monday will be just a few
degrees shy of normal. Tuesday highs will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: The low pressure system should track out
of the Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley Tuesday night into
Thursday as high pressure slides east into the Atlantic. This system
will lead to 850 mb southerly flow throughout the duration of the
extended period. Although this low pressure system an associated
fronts are expected to remain well to our west the first half of the
period, the enhanced southerly flow will act to pull in moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico increasing our shower and thunderstorm
chances. Wednesday the southerly flow at 850 mb will be rather weak.
The flow at the sfc should remain southerly and southeasterly as the
high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Global models agree in
keeping  us mostly dry with only isolated PoPs Wednesday therefore I
have decided to only keep a slight chance to chance for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday. Thursday into Friday looks like the better
chance for widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage as southerly
flow increases across the SE CONUS in response to the low pressure
system lifting NE across the CONUS. Shower and thunderstorm chances
could continue into Saturday as the trough associated with the low
pressure system tracks off the eastern US. Highs during the extended
forecast should be near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern for the time being remains
the development of thunderstorms across the western Piedmont of NC
this afternoon. A cold front remains stalled to the north of I-85
this afternoon, and instability along the front will provide for
storms to develop mainly through late afternoon. KCLT gets a TEMPO
for the thunderstorms and associated restrictions, which should
move off to the east around 22Z per the model guidance. Some time
around the main thunderstorm activity, the front will move in and
change the wind around to NW or N. The fcst brings this in at 22Z
but it could occur before then, essentially with the passage of any
thunderstorm across the terminal. A few showers will linger behind
the front into the evening, along with occasional gusts from the NW
to N. Guidance suggests low clouds returning later this evening,
which seems reasonable as the sfc low pulls away and low moisture
wraps in from the N. An MVFR restriction is likely to move down
from the N/NE late this evening to impact at least KCLT, but the
southwest reach of this cloud deck is uncertain. As we establish
more of a downslope NW flow in the early morning hours Sunday,
the cloud bases should lift to MVFR and linger into the middle
of the day. Eventually, the downslope flow will mix out the low
clouds starting in the early afternoon. Wind Sunday should be N/NE.

Outlook: VFR expected Sunday and into early next week as high
pressure migrates across the region.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  94%     High  87%     High  83%     High  91%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  99%     High  97%
KAVL       High  96%     High  89%     High  92%     High  94%
KHKY       High  96%     High  87%     High  90%     High  87%
KGMU       High 100%     High  99%     High  99%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
452 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021

NCZ036-037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-300900-
Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-York-Chester-
452 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of the Piedmont of
North Carolina and South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Any of these
storms will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy
downpours. There is a small chance of a storm producing damaging
winds. A tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-300900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-
452 AM EDT Sat May 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT SAT MAY 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EASLEY                  34.82N 82.59W
05/28/2021                   PICKENS            SC   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN BY STORM WIND.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT SAT MAY 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S BEREA               34.85N 82.47W
05/28/2021                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AT LEAST 2 TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR AND SOUTH OF BEREA.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021

NCZ036-056-057-068-069-504-508-291930-
Rowan NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
Greater Burke NC-Catawba NC-
245 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CATAWBA...EAST CENTRAL
RUTHERFORD...LINCOLN...SOUTHERN IREDELL...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...
NORTHWESTERN ROWAN AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

At 244 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles east of Forest
City to 10 miles north of Huntersville, and moving north at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Newton, Lincolnton, Statesville, Mooresville, Conover, Maiden,
Westport, Troutman, Claremont and Belwood.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8080 3541 8133 3542 8145 3539 8143
      3531 8180 3562 8171 3583 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 197DEG 23KT 3539 8170 3557 8087

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
331 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021

NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-504-292015-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
Greater Burke NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
331 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
CATAWBA...SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE...LINCOLN...CENTRAL IREDELL...NORTH
CENTRAL MECKLENBURG...CENTRAL CLEVELAND...WESTERN ROWAN...
NORTHWESTERN GASTON AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 331 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of Shelby
to 7 miles west of Salisbury, and moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Statesville, Shelby, Newton, Lincolnton, Kannapolis,
Huntersville, Cornelius, Mooresville and Davidson.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8053 3527 8162 3572 8158 3581 8114
      3578 8111 3582 8106 3592 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 203DEG 15KT 3535 8155 3563 8061

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
349 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021

NCZ057-292015-
Rowan NC-
349 PM EDT Sat May 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Salisbury, or near Granite Quarry, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Spencer, Granite Quarry, Rockwell, Faith, High Rock Lake
and High Rock.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8051 3570 8058 3576 8047 3573 8045
      3572 8042 3573 8039 3572 8036 3572 8034
      3571 8032 3568 8033 3567 8031 3563 8029
      3563 8027 3560 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 240DEG 21KT 3563 8048

KRENTZ