Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
726 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon into this
evening increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for the area. A
few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with this
front. Saturday isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
behind the departing front. Sunday into early next week high
pressure will return leading to drier and cooler conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
600 PM Update...Convective activity is remaining sub-severe and
rather spare currently. There is a semi-defined line of storms with
gusty outflows across ern TN which will move into the wrn NC mtns
over the next couple hours. Have predictive SPSs in place ahead of
this line, which still looks well placed.

An upper trof dropping down over the Midwest and attendant
short wave moving over the lower OH Valley region this evening
should drive a sfc boundary into the region from the west
overnight. A vort lobe out ahead of the main trof axis, combined
with some weak upper divergence in the right entrance region of
the jet, should enhance the coverage of convection across the
region mainly this evening. The convection allowing models show
the coverage peaking during the evening hours from west to east.
Of note is the Marginal Risk from SPC that runs up to the I-85
corridor, which is accepted on general principles because of a
boundary moving in at this time of year. The relative lack of
sfc-based CAPE after sunset, generally less than 500 J/kg, will
be a limiting factor for the severe chances. Overnight, the
precip coverage will shift eastward and taper off east of the
mtns as the front moves east, while precip prob remains fairly
high along the TN border where an upslope flow develops. The
upslope flow is maintained through Saturday as the upper system
lifts to the upper OH Valley, keeping a low level NW flow in
play. Some shower/thunderstorm activity should spill over the
mtns in VA and make its way down into the NW Piedmont of NC. At
this time, think the convection will stay N of metro Charlotte.
High temps on Saturday should get knocked down two categories
compared to Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM EDT Friday: An upper level positively tilted
trough will be approaching the CWA at the start of the short term
forecast period while the cold front is draped along the coast of
the Carolinas. This trough will track through the CWA throughout the
day Sunday lifting northeast out of the area by Sunday night while
the cold front continues tracking east offshore the Carolinas. This
trough could lead to a slight chance for isolated showers behind the
departing FROPA Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon from the NC
mtns into portions of the NC Piedmont. Otherwise high pressure will
build in behind the departing cold front Sunday into Monday leading
to much drier conditions and cooler temps while a low pressure
system tracks across the Southern Plains. High temps will return to
below normal Sunday thanks to N'ly and NW'ly flow at the sfc and
aloft.These cooler temps will be a much needed relief after seeing
highs in or near 90 for locations outside the mtns the last several
days. Highs will be closer to normal on Monday with upper 70s to mid
80s outside the mtns and low 70s to low 80s across the mtns. Higher
elevations may see slightly cooler highs for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: High pressure will be in place across the
Mid-Atlantic states to start the extended. A low pressure system
located over the Southern Plains Tuesday will track northeastward
into the Midwest thoughout the extended period. Although this system
will remain to our north and west, the warm front associated with
the upper low will lead to southerly flow at the mid-levels as early
as Tuesday afternoon. This southerly flow is expected to strengthen
and dominate Wednesday into Friday allowing for moisture to increase
across the SE CONUS. In response, shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected to become widespread towards the second half of the
long term. Currently global models show the best coverage for shower
and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Depending on how models
handle this incoming low pressure system, we could finally see some
much needed measurable rainfall late next week. High temps will
remain near normal through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...The forecast area will remain in a
convective threat thru the evening and early overnight as an active
cold front crosses the region. Have timed the front and better tstm
potential with TEMPOS at all TAF sites and kept lingering VCSH thru
05z or so most sites. Not much of a fog threat as winds will remain
elevated, but stable StCu could develop behind the front and bring
MVFR to possibly IFR CIGS at KAVL, HKY and and the Upstate terminals
of KGSP and KGMU. Flight conds will improve to VFR aft daybreak all
sites and skies shud become SCT during the afternoon outside the
mtns and KHKY. Low-end w/ly to wnw/ly gusts are possible aft noon
and will be more likely at KAVL and KAND.

Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated through the weekend with
only sparse diurnal activity expected.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  95%
KGSP       High 100%     High  91%     Low   59%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   77%     Med   63%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  91%     Low   59%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  91%     Low   59%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AP
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-292015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
408 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue this evening. The
main threats from these storms will be cloud-to-ground lightning and
strong to possibly damaging straight line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
704 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ033-282330-
Avery NC-
704 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM EDT...

At 704 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beech Mountain, moving east at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Banner Elk, Elk Park, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Sugar Mountain,
Seven Devils, Grandfather Mountain State Park and Minneapolis.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 8189 3625 8190 3624 8190 3623 8191
      3621 8190 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
      3611 8181 3610 8179 3611 8203 3612 8203
      3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 267DEG 44KT 3621 8195

HG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
846 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-290130-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
846 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS...NORTHERN HART...NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...
PICKENS AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 846 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles east of Clayton to 6 miles northeast of
Carnesville, and moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Clemson, Seneca, Walhalla, Pickens, Homeland Park, Central,
Northlake, Pendleton and Liberty.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 8318 3486 8325 3487 8324 3488 8324
      3488 8321 3489 8320 3492 8316 3493 8316
      3494 8311 3495 8313 3499 8310 3500 8310
      3509 8279 3507 8278 3507 8277 3505 8275
      3505 8272 3475 8262 3443 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 252DEG 30KT 3488 8323 3445 8316

HG