Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Ida will continue to weaken while moving
northeast across the Central Appalachians on Wednesday, bringing
periods of heavy rain and gusty wind. Continental high pressure is
expected to settle into the region later in the week with fair skies
and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: The overall forecast is still on track
at this time. A Wind advisory has been expanded into the northern
mountains in this latest update. 850mb winds in bufkit soundings
from CAMs for KTNB and KAVL continue to produce wind speeds between
35-45 kts from the S-SE later today. With relatively high soil
moisture content and the expected heavy rainfall, trees will become
more vulnerable to being uprooted this afternoon and through the
overnight period.

The latest satellite imagery indicates the center of T.D. Ida
centered over northern Alabama/south-central Tennessee at this time
and taking on an increasingly extra-tropical appearance, as the bulk
of the precip shield remains aligned along the low level confluence
axis east-through-north of the vortex (i.e., across the TN Valley),
with a couple of precip bands beginning to enter the CFWA. As the
precip band enters the area, the atmosphere is destabilizing as
well. The aforementioned precip bands should intensify somewhat
as the low level wind flow accelerates and turns toward the S/SE,
with resultant increasing upslope flow filling in/enhancing precip
coverage across the mountains and foothills throughout the afternoon
into the evening. Categorical PoPs appear warranted in these areas,
tapering down to low chance east of I-77.

The Weather Prediction Center has extended the moderate risk for
excessive rainfall futher into the Upstate and northeast GA. 3-5+"
of rain expected for the Southern Blue Ridge Escarpment where
the upslope enhancement will be greatest. 1-3+" of rain expected
elsewhere across the mountains and foothills, where the main precip
shield will be located. CAMs continue to produce periods of heavy
rain this evening through tonight and even into the morning hours
on Wednesday as the center of Ida pushes to the E/NE, just west of
the Appalachians. Up to one inch is expected in the Piedmont with
locally higher amounts in locations that receive a heavy-slow moving
thunderstorm or multiple cells during the forecast period. The
Flash Flood Watch seems to be well in place and no changes have
been made to it.

On the other side of things, severe weather will be possible across
the CFWA and the marginal risk for damaging winds and an isolated
tornado seems to be well in place for this afternoon and evening
via the Storm Prediction Center. Low level shear parameters and 0-1
km SRH values are gaining momentum as we enter the peak heating of
the day and Ida continues to encroach the CFWA to the west. The
time that the best shear/buoyancy overlap should begin over the
next couple of hours. As such, the setup does not appear to be
as favorable for tropical tornadoes as it was during T.S. Fred
on 8/17. The tornado threat should otherwise steadily diminish
later into the evening and overnight. Gradient Winds will also
be a concern, mainly along the high ridge tops of western NC and
higher peaks of northeast GA this afternoon through the early
part of the overnight. While Advisory-level gusts will be likely,
these should mainly be confined to locations above 5000'.

On Wednesday, expect numerous to categorical PoPs once again,
especially in the eastern zones as the main rainband from Ida
skirts into the I-77 corridor and CLT Metro area at peak heating
of the day and is able to regenerate. With good low level shear
parameters, good curvature in the 0-1 km hodographs, and just enough
instability, an isolated tornado will be possible once again in
the eastern zones. Otherwise, scattered diurnal activity will be
in store elsewhere with temperatures slightly below normal due
to the extensive cloud cover leftover from Ida and the lingering
morning low stratus that has been placed into the forecast. Drier
air will begin to filter in by the very end of the period as the
flow begins to come out of the northwest and the Remnants of Ida
continues to lift off to the NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 pm EDT Tuesday: The remnant circulation of Ida will move
away to the northeast Wednesday night, but with a lingering trough
over the forecast area for some evening I-40 and Piedmont showers,
and weak upslope into the TN spine counties into the early
overnight. Then, expect northwesterly downsloping to provide steady
and deeper-layer drying through Thursday as the trough moves east of
the region. High pressure will begin building east from the southern
Plains to the southern Appalachians.

Strong high pressure will build over the southern CONUS through
Friday, while surface high pressure builds east from New England to
the Great Lakes and ridges southward through the Carolinas. Dry
weather should result and maximum temperatures should be 1 to 2
categories below climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 pm EDT Tuesday: The ridge will retrograde slightly on
Saturday, but then break down in earnest across the southeast Sunday
into Monday as heights fall across the Great Lakes. This will permit
a cold front, with a narrow attendant moisture zone, to move
southeast through the region Sunday/Sunday night. Will keep dry
weather in place Saturday, with a modest 1 to 2 degree recovery in
temperatures. Then, will feature a chance showers in mountains to
a slight chance in the Piedmont with the fropa.

Model differences exist early next week, but with some semblance of
a broad eastern trough most likely Monday into Tuesday, with the
surface boundary settling just southeast of the region. Cannot rule
out some unsettled weather with the troughiness, but moisture in the
profiles looks quite limited so will feature mainly diurnal,
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Mon/Tue
afternoons. Temperatures will rebound closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Prevailing VFR conditions and gusty winds
will continue over the next few hours before conditions begin to
deteriorate. As the main precip shield and outer rainbands from Ida
work into the terminals, showers and thunderstorms will begin to
unfold and lingering precip is expected through much of the period.
With the gusty winds, vsbys should remain near MVFR, but low stratus
will deepen very well overnight and Wednesday morning. Most TAF
sites should be IFR or lower on cigs during that time frame. The one
forecast challenge is how long will the stratus take to dissipate.
Model guidance is holding steady with it through at least lunchtime
Wednesday. Winds will generally come out of the S/SE today and
slowly turn to the SW by tomorrow as the center of Ida continues to
track to the E/NE. KAVL will likely flip to the NW by the end of the
period. Scattered precip will be in store once again Wednesday and
has been included in the 18Z TAF update either as prevailing or in a
PROB30.

Outlook: Periods of rain/restrictions and some gusty winds can be
expected tonight and Wednesday, mainly during the morning as the
remnants of Ida move by to our north. Dry conditions return for the
latter part of the week and continue into the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  93%     High  87%
KGSP       High 100%     High  82%     High  91%     High  86%
KAVL       High  84%     High  95%     Med   78%     High  95%
KHKY       High  99%     High  81%     High  81%     High  88%
KGMU       High  95%     High  82%     High  94%     High  87%
KAND       High  87%     Med   75%     High  87%     Med   69%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for GAZ010-017-
     018.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ048-051-052-058-059.
     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for SCZ001>005.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-011800-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southwest mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Ida will continue to push into the
region through tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms with a brief
tornado or two are possible, mainly late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ053-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>005-011800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Buncombe-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, the mountains and foothills of western North Carolina, and
the Upstate South Carolina mountains.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Ida will continue to push into the
region through tonight. In addition to the flood threat, gusty south
winds at higher elevations this afternoon into tonight could down
isolated to scattered trees or power lines. Isolated severe
thunderstorms with a weak and brief tornado or two are also possible,
mainly late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-049-050-011800-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Ida will continue to push into the
region through tonight. In addition to the flood and wind threats,
isolated severe thunderstorms with a weak and brief tornado or two
are also possible, mainly this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ006>014-019-011800-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina,and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Ida will continue to push into the
region through tonight. Periods of heavy rain with isolated flooding
and breezy southerly winds will develop this afternoon and continue
into tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a weak and brief
tornado or two, will be possible, mainly late this afternoon and this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The remnants of Ida will depart to the east with periods of heavy
rain and associated isolated flood threat gradually coming to an
end.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S FOUNTAIN INN        34.62N 82.20W
08/31/2021                   LAURENS            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN ROADWAY AT WINDING HOLLOW ROAD AND GREENPOND
            ROAD

&&

MPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE LAURENS            34.47N 82.00W
08/31/2021                   LAURENS            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN ROADWAY ON JONELLA STREET AND E FARLEY
            AVENUE

&&

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
516 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-014-312145-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Chester SC-
516 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Mecklenburg, southeastern Gaston, central Chester and York Counties
through 545 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of York to 11 miles west of
Rock Hill to 6 miles south of Chester. Movement was northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Rock Hill, York, Chester, Fort Mill, Pineville, South
Gastonia, Tega Cay, Clover and Newport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8088 3484 8087 3483 8090 3472 8087
      3456 8115 3456 8125 3483 8127 3514 8140
      3517 8137 3516 8133 3534 8118 3508 8087
      3504 8087 3508 8091 3501 8091 3494 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 224DEG 26KT 3509 8130 3488 8122 3462 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW CLINTON           34.46N 81.88W
08/31/2021                   LAURENS            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR SPRUCE STREET AND CEDAR STREET IN CLINTON

&&

MPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S CROSS HILL          34.25N 81.99W
08/31/2021                   LAURENS            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            ROOF OFF HOME ON AMBER HILL CIRCLE SPUR NORTH OF LAKE
            GREENWOOD

&&

MPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE LYMAN             34.94N 82.07W
08/31/2021                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNED POWER LINES OFF I-85 NEAR MM 66. CAUSING TRAFFIC
            DELAYS.

&&

MPR