Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

060 
WWUS52 KGSP 142050
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
450 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCC021-089-142115-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-210814T2115Z/
Henderson NC-Buncombe NC-
450 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

At 450 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Downtown Asheville, or near Fairview In Buncombe County, and is
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
East Asheville, Arden, Black Mountain, Mills River, Fletcher,
Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, Mountain Home, Biltmore
Forest and Bat Cave.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8228 3559 8229 3558 8227 3547 8226
      3545 8228 3541 8227 3539 8226 3537 8228
      3534 8244 3535 8262 3561 8253 3563 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 351DEG 4KT 3551 8245 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

HG

094 
WWUS52 KGSP 142105
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
505 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCC021-089-142115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-210814T2115Z/
Henderson NC-Buncombe NC-
505 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty 
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3561 8228 3559 8229 3558 8227 3547 8226
      3545 8228 3541 8227 3539 8226 3537 8228
      3534 8244 3535 8262 3561 8253 3563 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 012DEG 10KT 3548 8246 

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front arriving from the north will stall out across our
region on Sunday bringing cooler temperatures.  Abundant tropical
moisture will be across our area through much of the week as we can
expect numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms with occasional
heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 pm: Strong instability (sbCAPE > 3000 J/kg across much of
the area) has resulted in scattered convection developing this
afternoon, with the best coverage actually observed in the most
unstable air (sbCAPE 3500-4500 J/kg) along and southeast of the I-85
corridor. Meanwhile, the mountains are relatively quiet...almost too
quiet...as coverage there has been widely scattered at most thus far
this afternoon. Nevertheless, cumulus congestus abounds along the
ridge tops, and we still expect at least solid scattered coverage to
develop there by the end of the afternoon. Outflows from this
activity may then provide another round of scattered activity across
the Piedmont this evening. The main concern going forward will be
locally heavy and perhaps isolated excessive rainfall, as
slow-moving and/or backbuilding cells could result in rainfall
amounts as high as 3" in an hour. Otherwise, the strong instability
and downdraft CAPE of around 1000 J/kg will allow for a few
strong-to-severe microbursts from pulse updrafts.

In light of the good coverage this afternoon, which should put down
a decent amount of rain-cooled air, we do not expect the eruption of
deep convection that was observed late Fri evening into the early
part of the overnight. However, with weak surface boundary expected
to sag across the area and interact with a muggy and weakly unstable
air mass, isolated to widely scattered showers and a few TS will
remain possible through the overnight.

Sunday should see even better coverage of mainly afternoon showers
and storms as the weak boundary roughly bisects the forecast area,
moisture increases (PWATs of around 2" across the Piedmont by the
end of the day) and the flow aloft becomes even less anticyclonic,
with perhaps even some weak disturbances lifting toward the area
from the Gulf Coast. Likely to categorical PoPs are advertised in
all locations by the end of the day. In terms of convective threats,
widespread early day cloud cover is expected to result in a bit of a
cooling trend. In fact, max temps are forecast to top out a couple
of degrees shy of normal, or a solid 5-7 degrees cooler than they've
been in recent days. As such, instability will be quite a bit weaker
Sunday afternoon, and the severe storm threat therefore a bit lower
(albeit non-zero). The larger concern will be a continued threat for
locally excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday: Very soggy pattern will be in store
during the short-term period. The sub-tropical high off the Atlantic
will transport tropical moisture into the CFWA with the help of a
weak upper low over the eastern Gulf Coast, which will allow for
PWAT values to top off at ~150% above normal for this time of the
year. At the same time, a frontal boundary will be draped across
the CFWA and is expected to stall during the early part of next
week. The remnants of Fred will only add to the tropical airmass and
thus, multiple days of heavy rainfall and a continued flood threat
will be possible across the CFWA. With the stalled front providing
a focus for shower and thunderstorm initiation, expect for daily
development of diurnal convection with the threat of this activity
lingering into the overnight hours each night. To cap the discussion
off, a broad area of high pressure is expected to set up shop over
New England and will provide a wedge-like pattern over the region
and will bring an uptick in PoPs due to upglide/upslope enhancement.

While analyzing at a few model soundings across the CFWA, a couple
of atmospheric processes stand out and will help increase the
overall flood threat. A deeper warm cloud layer, skinnier CAPE
profiles, and deep layer saturation within the atmospheric column
will likely kick off very heavy rain rates in any convection that
develops. With very weak shear parameters, expect slow motion cells
which in turn, will dump buckets of rain over various locations
within the CFWA, especially in areas that are near the frontal
boundary where training cells will most likely develop and in
favorable upslope locations. Very little change between Monday and
Tuesday, so the general pattern and expectation from this discussion
is relatively the same for both days. On top of all of the heavy
rainfall talk, there will also be the threat for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms each day as well. Confidence that the
ingredients for heavy rainfall/flash flooding continues to increase
with each model run and should be taken seriously. One last threat
will be landslides in the mountains, especially in the favorable
upslope peaks along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. High temperatures
will run below normal during the short-term with a weak summertime
wedge expected, but lows will be above normal due to extensive cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday: The forecast trend continues to gradually
push the remnants of Fred further west and both the GFS and ECMWF
allows the leftovers to get absorbed soon after making landfall over
the Deep South Tuesday into Wednesday. Either way, the tropical
airmass will hold steady as the stalled frontal boundary remains
in the vicinity of the CFWA and the tropical moisture continues
to be transported into the region during the middle part of next
week. The global models still differ in QPF amounts with the ECMWF
much wetter than the GFS, with a good bullseye over the southwest
mountains. This does not help with overall confidence this far out,
but the pattern will remain persistent with a wetter trend across
the CFWA.

More uncertainties follow up during the second half of the medium
range as the GFS and ECMWF produce different synoptic patterns. The
latest GFS builds an upper ridge along the East Coast and allows
for a slightly drier airmass to prevail of the CFWA, while the
ECMWF stays active and sends an upper low over the OH Valley
and digs lower heights into the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia. Diurnal activity will stay put in the forecast despite
the large discrepancies between the model guidance this far out
due to the typical nature of summertime convection and nothing in
the model guidance that indicates this pattern will be altered in
any way. Temperatures will likely rebound a degree or two each
day during the extended period as the stalled frontal boundary
slowly dissipates and less cloud cover allows for more insolation
to reach the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered convection has developed across the
Terminal Forecast Area this afternoon, and VCSH/VCTS and tempos for
TSRA are warranted at most sites this afternoon. Convection has been
a bit slow to develop this afternoon across the mountains, but we
are still anticipating solid scattered to numerous coverage of cells
later this afternoon, with this activity possibly bringing another
round of scattered convection to the Piedmont and foothills this
evening. Therefore, additional tempos may need to be introduced
later. While convection will diminish in coverage and intensity this
evening, some degree of shower coverage and perhaps a TS or two will
persist into the overnight as a weak surface front sags south into
the area. The expectation of widespread VFR cloud cover this evening
is resulting in somewhat low confidence in cig/visby trends
overnight into early Sunday, although guidance is hitting low
visibility fairly hard at KAVL and vicinity. For now, we are
advertising 2SM/SCT005 around daybreak at KAVL. Low cigs (LIFR) are
also advertised at KHKY north of the weak frontal boundary.
Otherwise, the forecast is VFR except for a brief period of MVFR
conditions here and there Sunday morning.

Outlook: Fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage remains
in the forecast for the late weekend and the early to middle part of
next week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each morning,
especially over mountain valleys, and in areas primed by rainfall
from the previous evening. Low restrictions are also likely with any
downpours.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  87%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  84%     High  96%
KAVL       High 100%     High  99%     High  91%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High  94%     Med   71%     High  84%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High  90%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  80%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
526 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
526 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia this afternoon and linger into the
evening. A few of these storms could become quite strong and produce
large hail, heavy rainfall, and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Fred may interact with an old
front to produce heavy rainfall early next week. This could result
in a flash flooding threat, especially in areas that receive
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE UNION             34.70N 81.62W
08/14/2021                   UNION              SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON HART ST.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
347 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

SCZ009-014-142015-
York SC-Chester SC-
347 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Chester and southern York Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 347 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Rock Hill, or 5 miles southwest of Newport, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Newport, Mcconnells, Lowrys, Sharon, Lesslie and
Edgemoor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8117 3495 8094 3469 8106 3488 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 019DEG 14KT 3492 8115

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW FORT MILL          35.01N 80.95W
08/14/2021                   YORK               SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED TREES DOWN ON MORGAN ST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE TEGA CAY           35.08N 80.97W
08/14/2021                   YORK               SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED TREES DOWN ON BLUE JAY PASS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ROCK HILL           34.97N 81.03W
08/14/2021                   YORK               SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON MALVERN
            RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCZ068-504-506-508-142045-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
408 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDowell, northeastern Rutherford, northwestern Cleveland and
southwestern Burke Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 407 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Marion, or 6 miles southeast of Lake James State Park,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Glen Alpine, Lake James State Park, South Mountains State
Park, Dysartsville and Nebo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8192 3573 8192 3577 8164 3550 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 270DEG 7KT 3564 8184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG