Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

109 
WWUS52 KGSP 140453
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1253 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCC025-159-140515-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-210814T0515Z/
Cabarrus NC-Rowan NC-
1253 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES...

At 1252 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles east of
Downtown Concord, or near Mt Pleasant, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Rockwell, Mt Pleasant, High Rock Lake, Gold Hill, Finger, Faith,
Granite Quarry, Downtown Concord and Kannapolis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

If on or near High Rock Lake, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3532 8041 3531 8053 3548 8060
      3568 8033 3567 8031 3563 8029 3563 8027
      3558 8021 3555 8021 3554 8020 3553 8020
      3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 232DEG 12KT 3544 8039 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

HG

837 
WWUS52 KGSP 140514
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
114 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCC025-159-140524-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-210814T0515Z/
Cabarrus NC-Rowan NC-
114 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 AM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty 
winds to 35 mph and very heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3532 8041 3531 8053 3548 8060
      3568 8033 3567 8031 3563 8029 3563 8027
      3558 8021 3555 8021 3554 8020 3553 8020
      3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 251DEG 16KT 3547 8029 

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
948 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A stormy pattern will persist over the area through the weekend,
with scattered if not numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
each afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal through
Saturday. Cooler but still rainier weather will arrive Sunday with a
stalling cold front and possibly impacts from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Fred in the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 945 pm EDT: Radar continues to depict isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing mainly along the boundary left over by
earlier convection along the I-85 corridor from Charlotte to
Concord. Expect another hour or so of continued activity in this
area before the region finally stabilizes. Farther west across the
Upstate of SC, radar shows weak outflows working west and this
region still exhibits some late day 2000+ sbCAPE values in the
latest LAPS analysis. Will thus also feature isolated coverage there
through about midnight. Otherwise, the coverage should steadily
dwindle through the late evening and early overnight hours, although
small PoPs will be retained through the early morning hours near the
TN border as increasing moisture in advance of frontal zone
interacts with westerly low-level flow to initiate a few showers.
Patchy fog should be relegated mainly to the mountain river valleys
overnight, and any Piedmont locations that received heavy rain late
this evening.

Another day of moderate-to-strong instability is expected on
Saturday, while slight height falls are expected across the
Southeast as a major short wave trough passes across southeast
Canada and the northeast Conus. Meanwhile, the short term models
agree in depicting a lee/pre-frontal trough across the heart of the
CWA during the afternoon. Overall, forecast conditions are quite a
bit more favorable for deep convection Saturday afternoon, and
likely PoPs will be advertised across the mountains and portions of
the foothills, with 30-50% chances across the remainder of the
forecast area. There will also be an uptick in the severe weather
potential, owing largely to the higher overall coverage. Temps will
remain above normal through the period, with max heat indices
expected to range in the 99-102 range across the Piedmont again
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday: Saturday night, the approach of a
highly-elongated upper trough should ultimately push a frontal
boundary through the area from the north/northwest, advecting dry
cP air with it.  With the Bermuda High anchored over the western
Atlantic, persistent southeasterly flow will drive a plume of higher
PWATs into the area, inducing isentropic ascent over the cold air.
Ultimately, this leads to the development of a summertime cold air
damming event, with a clear isobaric signature evident in all the
global models by daybreak Sunday.  Throughout Sunday, widespread
cloud cover and precipitation into the cold dome should further
strengthen this in situ CAD.  Consequently, temps should be easily
10 degrees cooler on Sunday than they were on Saturday.  As with
all frontal passages, some thunder is guaranteed.  Model soundings
indicate PWATs in excess of 1.8-2", warm cloud depths of 10-11 kft,
and minimal MBE vectors - making heavy rain the primary threat
from this convection.

This trend continues into Monday.  With cold air entrenched across
the Piedmont and Foothills, the wedge boundary appears to set up
near or south of the southern tier of our CWA.  A slight weakening
in flow off the Atlantic will allow moisture to relapse slightly,
and PoPs drop off a tad accordingly; nonetheless, Sunday and Monday
both entail widespread categorical PoPs across the mountains, with
chance to likely PoPs elsewhere.  Surface heating will be severely
hampered by cloud cover and rainfall, limiting instability; however,
can't rule out some embedded thunder, especially given that robust
upglide should lend itself to elevated convection.  Once again,
heavy rain will be the biggest threat here, and perhaps an uptick
in flash flood threat given that this rainfall will take place
with many areas already saturated by Sunday's rainfall.

Monday evening, moisture should ramp up again as remnants of
Tropical Depression Fred approach from the south.  The brunt of
these impacts, however, will not be felt until past the end of
the short term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Monday evening, tropical moisture will
arrive in earnest.  Although model guidance remains split on Fred's
track and intensity, these details may not matter much - with a
remnant wedge in place, a focusing boundary just barely south of
the CWA, and robust moisture in place, heavy rain is a guarantee
whether Fred is intact and over our region or falling apart and well
to our west.  Although the ECMWF's excessive totals seem overdone,
it's likely we'll see notable rainfall totals regardless.  So,
for now, keeping the QPF forecast on the high side of guidance;
most models are predicting significant rainfall totals through
Tuesday night, with the GFS being the extremely unimpressed
exception for its last several runs.  Consequently, we anticipate
at least localized hydrological threats on Tuesday, as widespread
heavy rain falls on areas already primed by days of moist weather.

Late in the week, we'll return to the typical summertime diurnal
pattern as southeasterly surface flow is reestablished and
conditions trend back to climatological temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers developing on persistent outflows
will require a VCSH mention to be included at KCLT until about 03Z,
but stabilizing profiles suggest the TSRA are done there for the
night. Otherwise, convection will continue to dwindle in line with
the convection-allowing models through late evening and early
overnight. VFR conditions are expected going forward, except for
likely IFR fog/stratus in the mountain river valleys, including
KAVL, and MVFR fog possible at/near KHKY toward daybreak. Cannot
rule out some overnight fog at or near KCLT given the rainfall this
evening, but it might be able to dry out there before the vsby falls
with continued light mixing. The potential for better shower and
thunderstorm coverage looks greater Saturday afternoon and evening
as a front approaches from the north and moisture pools over the
region. Winds will generally remain light SW through the period,
with more variable directions expected at KAVL, and gusty near
thunderstorms late Saturday.

Outlook: Fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage remains
in the forecast for the late weekend and the early to middle part of
next week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each morning,
especially over mountain valleys, and in areas primed by rainfall
from the previous evening. Low restrictions are also likely with any
downpours.

Confidence Table...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Low   38%     Med   73%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1024 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150230-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1024 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Fred may interact with an old
front to produce heavy rainfall early next week. This could result
in a flash flooding threat, especially in areas that receive
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1113 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

NCZ037-057-140345-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
1113 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Davie
and western Rowan Counties through 1145 PM EDT...

At 1112 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Kannapolis, or 6 miles south of Cleveland, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salisbury, Mocksville, Kannapolis, China Grove, Spencer, Landis,
Cooleemee, Cleveland, Enochville and Granite Quarry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8064 3559 8075 3568 8077 3592 8061
      3582 8047 3579 8048 3577 8045 3575 8046
      3573 8045 3572 8038 3572 8034 3571 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 220DEG 23KT 3563 8067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1145 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

NCZ071-072-082-140415-
Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1145 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Cabarrus, southeastern Mecklenburg and north central Union Counties
through 1215 AM EDT...

At 1145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Monroe, or near Hemby Bridge, moving northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Matthews, Mint Hill, Unionville, Lake Park, Hemby Bridge, Midland,
Fairview In Union County, Stallings, Harrisburg and Indian Trail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8054 3512 8073 3536 8063 3528 8044
      3521 8048 3519 8051 3518 8050 3518 8048
      3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042 3517 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 210DEG 10KT 3514 8060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1149 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

NCZ057-072-140415-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
1149 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Cabarrus and southwestern Rowan Counties through 1215 AM EDT...

At 1149 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Kannapolis, or near Landis, moving northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kannapolis, Salisbury, Downtown Concord, China Grove, Landis,
Enochville, Granite Quarry, Faith, Cleveland and Piedmont Research
Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8058 3553 8074 3558 8075 3577 8066
      3564 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 210DEG 9KT 3556 8063

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1210 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCZ057-140445-
Rowan NC-
1210 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Rowan County
through 1245 AM EDT...

At 1209 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Salisbury, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salisbury, China Grove, Spencer, Granite Quarry, Rockwell, Faith,
High Rock Lake and Piedmont Research Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near High Rock Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8056 3565 8070 3579 8052 3578 8051
      3578 8050 3577 8049 3578 8048 3574 8046
      3572 8042 3572 8034 3571 8032 3568 8033
      3567 8031 3563 8029 3563 8027 3561 8024
      3559 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 238DEG 19KT 3563 8054

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1217 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCZ057-072-140445-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
1217 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Cabarrus and south
central Rowan Counties through 1245 AM EDT...

At 1217 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Downtown Concord, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, West Concord, Rockwell, Mt Pleasant,
Harrisburg, Coddle Creek Reservoir, Charlotte Motor Speedway and Gold
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8032 3534 8040 3531 8065 3549 8071
      3562 8034 3550 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 242DEG 24KT 3544 8059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE CLEVELAND          35.67N 80.62W
08/13/2021                   ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON GOODNIGHT RD NEAR LILLIAN CIRCLE. VEHICLE
            RAN INTO TREE.

&&

PM