River Flood Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

522 
WGUS82 KGSP 260223
FLSGSP

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1023 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...The Flood Advisory is replaced with a River Flood Warning for the 
following rivers in North Carolina...

  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.

NCC021-089-260330-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210326T0223Z/
/FLCN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1023 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the French Broad River Near Fletcher has 
been replaced...

The Flood Advisory is replaced by a river flood warning for
  the French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* At 9:30 PM EDT Thursday the stage was 10.3 feet and rising rapidly.
* Minor Flood Stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above Minor Flood Stage 
  just after midnight tonight to a crest of 15.0 feet tomorrow 
  morning. It will then fall below Minor Flood Stage early Saturday 
  morning.

&&


                  Fld   Observed           Forecasts (8 pm EDT)     
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

French Broad River
Fletcher          13.0  10.3  Thu 9 pm EDT 13.9  9.8   7.9          




&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254
      3540 8250 3537 8250

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front is expected to move through the area later
tonight and into Friday and could produce isolated strong to severe
convection along with significant rainfall. The active pattern
continues this weekend as another cold front slides through the
area on Sunday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday: The warm front has centered itself to over
the CFWA, with a slight dip over the Upstate, which is indicated by
the N to NE-ly via Metar Obs. Pre-frontal activity is ongoing over
the mountains and NE GA, with elevated instability building in
around the proximity of the warm front. This should continue through
the rest of the day and into tonight before the cold front enters in
from the west. Some of these storms will be strong to severe as
daytime heating continues and dewpoints trending into the 60s in
most locations outside the mountains, which is allowing the
atmosphere to destabilize slightly more than initially thought.
Another trend to watch is the convective debris from the west that
could alter sfc insolation and maintain mostly cloudy skies ahead of
any pre-frontal or frontal related precip, which would ultimately
limit SBCAPE development.

We remain under a weak WAA regime and influence of a subtropical
ridge off the SE Coast. This ridge is downstream of an expansive
trough, within which a potent shortwave will move today, driving
development of a low pressure system over the lower MS Valley. A
significant severe outbreak is expected over portions of the TN, MS,
and AL. Fairly brisk southerly flow has already initiated convection
over the high terrain. The depth and strength of moisture advection
will be impressive, leading to PWATs peaking near +3 SD, and IVT
parameter values that are also anomalously large. Deep layer
hodographs will already be long and curving, but midlevel lapse
rates are not the greatest; the limited instability will keep our
severe threat comparatively small during the day, with convective
layers too shallow to realize all the shear. This does somewhat
limit our heavy rain threat as well, though there will be widespread
coverage and potential for multiple rounds thru tonight. WPC Day 1
ERO includes most of our SW mtns in a Moderate Risk, partly because
of the aforementioned anomalies and high probabilities for
significant rain rates from the HREF. We are hoisting a Flash Flood
Watch from 18z today to 12z Fri. The same southerly flow will lead
to rather gusty winds, and higher elevations of the mtns will be
exposed to near Wind Advisory-level conditions.

LLJ is expected to precede the cold front into our area in the
early evening, again enhancing precip generation along the srn
end of the Appalachians; a narrow tongue of sfc based instability
will linger until the front itself enters in the late evening. A
convective line, likely with some embedded rotation will support
vague supercell structure. The dynamic lift provided by the
shortwave will mostly miss our area to the NW as the wave tracks
north of the OH River; this coupled with the unfavorable timing,
and diminishing instability, should begin to impact the convection
particularly as it crosses the mountains. Nevertheless, a narrow
line of strong showers with a few embedded tstms could progress
across the area overnight. Prog soundings reveal that the line will
encounter poor low to midlevel lapse rates, and this would limit sfc
based updrafts and thus tornado risk. The SPC slight risk extending
only into the mtns looks well-placed and even extended slightly
further east. Recent short-term consensus PoPs as well as hourly
NBM seem to be keying better on the shadowing effect of the mtns,
and timing/chances have been revised thru tonight in new fcst grids.

The frontal boundary should push out of the region by 18z Friday
as sfc high builds in to the NW and we enter a post-frontal
environment by the very end of the forecast period. Drier weather
will prevail, with highs in the low 80s in most locations outside
the mountains and 70s in the higher elevations. One factor that
can play a role is how fast the cold front exits the region and
allows for the clouds to scour out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: the short term picks up at 00Z Saturday,
with a shortwave trough rounding the broader ridge sitting over the
east coast.  By this time, forcing from the trough will largely
be tapering off to the north of our CWA, and a brief bout of
dry weather is in store for Friday night.  Renewed southwesterly
flow over the Tennessee Valley will pump Gulf moisture into the
lower troposphere through the day Saturday, working with weak
mid-level forcing to produce scattered afternoon showers across TN,
spreading into the Blue Ridge Mountains and western SC Upstate
by late Saturday afternoon.  The developing surface low skirts
its way northeast along the Appalachians and drags a cold front
across our area early Sunday afternoon.

Ample WAA ahead of this front paired with decent solar insolation
should prime the environment for convection, with the Piedmont
and Upstate seeing SBCAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range and a
40-50kt LLJ riding out ahead of the frontal boundary.  Given the
timing of the frontal passage in the early afternoon, this is a
pattern to keep an eye on over the next day or two.  Some precip
may still be falling for at least the eastern part of our CWA by
the end of the short term at 00Z Monday, as the front tapers off
to the east.

Temps are on track to stay several degrees above normal on Saturday
and Sunday, before dropping back to near-normal Sunday night in
the wake of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: by Sunday night, good mid-level forcing
associated with the latest trough is exiting the region to the east,
and precip drops off overnight behind the departing cold front.
We then enter a weak upper ridging regime as high pressure builds
in at the surface.  So, Monday should be dominated by clear,
dry weather as the frontal boundary stalls well south of us.

Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF depict a closed upper low meandering
out of the Southern Plains and causing coastal cyclogenesis along
the stagnant frontal boundary.  The resulting surface low tracks
from the Gulf Coast out to the NC/SC coastline.  It looks to only
graze our CWA at this point, yielding chance PoPs on Tuesday
afternoon and overnight.  On Thursday, yet another surface low
pushes into the region from the west, bringing another bout of
rainfall to the region to cap out the week.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday look to be a couple degrees
below normal, before southerly WAA brings them back to near-normal
later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Areas of LIFR to VLIFR cigs/vsby persist,
over all TAF sites, with the exception of KCLT and KAND. The cirrus
and convective debris from the west has kept this from expanding
much, but also delay its scattering. Model trends have become wetter
and showing slightly more instability than previous trends. Pre-
frontal activity has kicked-off over the mountains and foothills,
with some thunderstorms approaching the Upstate and thus, a tempo
for thunder has been entered in at all sites except KHKY. The HRRR
model shows this activity pushing into KCLT in the evening along
with available instability. The warm front is having a hard time
passing through the I-85 Corridor as wind directions are still
coming in from the N and NE. KCLT has veered to the SE, but is the
only terminal to do so.

A weakening convective line is expected to traverse the region
tonight; confidence not great but think MVFR cigs and locally MVFR
vsby will result as this passes the sites. The gusty winds brought
down by the line may be of more impact. Damaging wind risk is
nonzero with the storms or any stronger showers, particularly over
the western sites. Expect restrictions to lift after the fropa
tomorrow as drier air and clearing skies filter in behind the front.

Outlook: Active weather will continue until a cold front pushes
through the region Friday morning. Another system may bring rain and
associated restrictions late Saturday into Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  96%     High  90%     High  92%
KGSP       High  91%     High  84%     Med   78%     High  95%
KAVL       High  89%     High  86%     Med   61%     High 100%
KHKY       High  87%     Med   66%     Low   55%     High  95%
KGMU       High  90%     High  83%     Low   55%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  94%     High  94%     High  98%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ010.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ051-052-058-
     059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...CAC/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...CAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
445 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

GAZ010-NCZ059-062>064-260845-
Rabun-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
445 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through
tonight. Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground
lightning. Late this afternoon and this evening, thunderstorms may
move in from Tennessee which will pose a risk of damaging winds and
hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and a small risk of a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ051-052-058-260845-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-
445 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through
tonight. Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground
lightning. Late this afternoon and this evening, thunderstorms may
move in from Tennessee which will pose a risk of damaging winds and
hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and a small risk of a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Saturday night and early Sunday, another round of thunderstorms is
expected. These storms also may produce severe weather in the form
of damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather or flooding to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ053-065-501>510-SCZ001>006-010-260845-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Anderson-
445 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through tonight. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning. Tonight,
a line of thunderstorms will move in from the west, posing a risk of
damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and a tornado
cannot be entirely ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-048>050-260845-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
445 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through tonight. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning. Late this
afternoon and this evening, thunderstorms may move in from Tennessee
which will pose a risk of damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch in
diameter, and a small risk of a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Saturday night and early Sunday, another round of thunderstorms is
expected. These storms also may produce severe weather in the form of
damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ082-SCZ014-019-260845-
Union NC-Chester-Greenwood-
445 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower piedmont North Carolina
and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through tonight. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of locally heavy rain and cloud-to-
ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The severe weather risk will continue until the line of storms moves
out Friday morning. Damaging winds would be the main concern Friday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-SCZ007>009-011>013-260845-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union SC-
445 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through tonight. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of locally heavy rain and cloud-to-
ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 PM EDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE HICKORY TAVERN     34.49N 82.15W
03/25/2021                   LAURENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN WITH VARIED DIRECTION OF FALL, 1800 BLOCK OF
            WILSONTOWN RD.

&&

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 PM EDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 WNW CARLISLE          34.61N 81.50W
03/25/2021  E1.00 INCH       UNION              SC   PUBLIC

            ALSO TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN, LOCATION APPROXIMATE.

&&

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
559 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

NCZ071-082-252230-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-
559 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND
UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 559 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thu Tornado Watch
remains in effect for the warned area. nderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles north of Indian Land to 3 miles north of
Lancaster, and moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, South Charlotte, Matthews, Indian Trail, Weddington,
Stallings, Unionville, Wesley Chapel, Wingate and Waxhaw.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078 3507 8090
      3519 8051 3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047
      3516 8044 3517 8042 3516 8041 3518 8037
      3517 8036 3520 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 261DEG 48KT 3507 8084 3477 8076

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

NCZ509-510-SCZ003-005>007-252245-
Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
623 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 622 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 12 miles south of Hendersonville to 5 miles east
of Easley, and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville, Columbus, Greer, Taylors, Berea, Welcome, Travelers
Rest and Duncan.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 8253 3518 8246 3516 8246 3517 8244
      3520 8242 3521 8238 3518 8237 3521 8235
      3528 8200 3526 8198 3482 8212 3480 8247
      3482 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 253DEG 37KT 3514 8241 3483 8250

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
630 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

NCZ082-252245-
Union NC-
630 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 17 miles southeast of Downtown Concord to 13
miles southeast of Monroe, and moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Wingate, Marshville, Sturdivants, Unionville, Fairview In Union
County and New Salem.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8046 3519 8051 3518 8049
      3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042
      3516 8041 3518 8037 3517 8036 3517 8032
      3519 8030 3520 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 272DEG 30KT 3519 8045 3483 8040

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
654 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

NCZ068-508-510-SCZ007-008-252345-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Eastern Polk NC-Cherokee SC-
Spartanburg SC-
654 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles northeast of Columbus to 11 miles west of
Spartanburg, and moving east at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Forest City, Boiling Springs SC, Boiling
Springs NC, Duncan, Lyman, Cowpens, Wellford and Inman.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3546 8158 3500 8164 3483 8220 3484 8221
      3526 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 248DEG 36KT 3529 8208 3493 8213

LANE