Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
548 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Light rain showers and cloud cover over NW Kansas and portions of SW
Nebraska have mostly stabilized the atmosphere this afternoon.
However, a cold front is currently sitting along northern border
of our CWA which could still help overcome the mostly stable
atmosphere and allow a few more showers/marginal storms develop
later this afternoon and evening. CAMs have really struggled to
handle the light rain so far today, so I am hesitant to trust them
for the remainder of the day. Most of the area is sitting in a
500-1000 J/kg area of MLCAPE that does improve as you go east.
There is also about 100-400 J/kg of CIN which doesn't appear to
improve over the next several hours. Shear is actually better
today with 25-35 kts across the area generally from the west. If
anything does develop, which I'm not very confident about, storms
could become marginally severe with wind gusts of 50-60 mph and
possibly up to quarter sized hail. The best chance for any severe
storms does appear to be along/south of I-70 and over our far
eastern counties. The current thinking for anything to develop and
impact the Tri-State area is around 5 to 9 PM MT. Overnight,
skies are expected to clear from north to south while the winds
turn clockwise from north to south and back to north at around
5-10 kts. Temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 60s across
the area overnight.

We are expected to warm up again tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s
to lower 100s as a surface high nudges over the area. There is
concern for elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
Wednesday afternoon with RH values in the teens mainly along and
west of a Trenton-Colby-Russell Springs line. Winds are forecast to
remain well below the 25 mph criteria with gusts around 15 mph or
less as they once again turn clockwise from north in the morning and
towards the W/SW overnight. Temperatures are expected to once again
be in the 60s across the area tomorrow night.

On Thursday, a cold front is expected to slowly move south across
the area throughout the day, increasing cloud cover and
precipitation chances from the afternoon through the overnight
hours. With the slow movement of the front, temperatures are still
forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s across majority of the area.
There is concern for elevated fire weather conditions again Thursday
afternoon with RH values in the 20-30% range and mainly E/SE winds
gusting between 20-25 mph as the front moves across the area. There
is potential for showers and storms to develop across the CWA during
the afternoon hours and continue through the overnight hours. A few
strong to severe storms may be possible through the evening hours.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

At the start of the period, an upper trough dominates the northern
portion of the CONUS with high pressure along the Rockies. A frontal
boundary should be in the area, generating chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Friday. For the weekend, the ridge over the western
part of the country spreads east and monsoonal moisture filters in
underneath, resulting in additional storm chances through the
weekend.

Meanwhile behind the ridge, another system comes ashore in western
Canada. This trough digs into the west coast on Monday on Tuesday,
causing the ridge to push eastward across the region. Dry weather
prevails for this timeframe.

A warming trend is forecast through the long term period.
Temperatures rise from the low/mid 80s on Friday to the upper
80s/low 90s in time for Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures will
mainly be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

MCK will be VFR with a few high clouds through the 00Z TAF period.
Light southeast winds will turn to the south through the night
with winds shifting to the northwest after 13Z following the
passage of a cold front.

GLD will have VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period with a
high ceiling through about 04Z as the tops of isolated
thunderstorms move across the TAF site this evening. That
isolated storm may just clip the vicinity of GLD between 02-04Z.
Southwest winds will turn southwest after 06Z, and then northwest
after 13Z with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
529 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

COZ091-092-110000-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
529 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado through 600 PM MDT...

At 529 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Vona, or 12 miles southeast of Seibert, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Kit
Carson County and northwestern Cheyenne County Counties in east
central Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10288 3922 10282 3915 10258 3896 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 307DEG 16KT 3913 10277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

COZ091-092-110030-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
559 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado through 630 PM MDT...

At 559 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Stratton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Kit
Carson County and north central Cheyenne County Counties in east
central Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 10273 3916 10267 3910 10238 3890 10256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 302DEG 17KT 3907 10262

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AW