Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
542 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

There is potential for severe storms this afternoon and evening. As
of 3 PM MDT, storms are beginning to develop along and east of I-25.
These storms are mostly isolated to scattered in nature; however, as
they move east the storms will develop into more of a line. These
storms are being driven by shortwaves moving southeast across the
Rockies ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. The HRRR is
handling the event fairly well, especially with the storm mode
evolution. MLCAPE values are in the 1000-2000 j/kg range with a
veering wind profile. Shear profiles are favorable with 30-40 kts of
EBWD and 30-50 kts of 0-6 km shear oriented to the W/WNW. Mid-level
lapse rates are range from 8-8.5 C/km across the area, indicating a
favorable environment as the storms move across. The main threat
this afternoon/evening is damaging winds up to 75 mph and 1-2" hail.
The hail threat is expected to diminish while the wind threat
increases as the storms move across NW KS and SW NE. With the recent
dry conditions, there is potential for blowing dust and reduced
visibilities due to strong outflows from the storms. A brief tornado
can't be ruled out; however, confidence is fairly low. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible, especially along the KS/NE border. Given the
storm motion and recent dry conditions, I'm not expecting flash
flooding to be much of an issue. The storms are expected to exit the
area around midnight. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper
50s to upper 60s tonight with winds shifting to the SW then W
behind the line of storms at 10-15 mph.

Sunday, a cold front is expected to move southeast across the area
during the morning to early afternoon. As this front moves through,
winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph as they shift to the
north. A few weak disturbances are expected to move across the High
Plains behind the front, which will boost precipitation chances for
the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms are possible;
however, the severe threat is fairly low. Showers and storms are
expected to impact the area through the overnight hours.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow, thanks to the cold
front, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

NW flow aloft will prevail at the beginning of the long term
period.. on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge over the
Rockies and Intermountain West. Flow aloft will back to the west
by mid-week as the ridge shifts ESE to the Southern Plains. Split
flow aloft is anticipated over the western CONUS by the end of
the week.. as an upper level low stalls invof the central Pacific
Coast. Expect increasing temperatures Tue-Wed.. as heights rise
in assoc/w the ridge progressing from the Rockies to the Southern
Plains. Temperatures will level off or slightly cool by late week.
At this time, precipitation chances appear very low.. though uncertainty
increases considerably by late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Vfr conditions are initially forecast at both KGLD and KMCK
terminals at the start of the TAF period. The main impact this
evening will be a line of thunderstorms pushing through the region
from west to east. Timing may need to be adjusted, but current
thinking is storms will make it to KGLD around 02z and KMCK around
03z, bringing a brief period of very strong winds and reduced
visibilities due to rainfall. Beyond this, conditions will improve
overnight, with decreasing clouds as well as light and variable
winds. A cold front brings gusty north winds to both sites by mid
morning Sunday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
728 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-210130-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
728 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021 /828 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska until 11 PM MDT or midnight CDT.

A line of thunderstorms will track eastward into Kansas and Nebraska
during the evening. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong
damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph are anticipated, mainly before 11
PM MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Hot and dry conditions are expected to return on Wednesday and
Thursday with high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
755 PM MDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S HOXIE               39.26N 100.44W
06/19/2021  E83 MPH          SHERIDAN           KS   MESONET

            SITE KKSHOXIE6.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
807 PM MDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E MCCOOK              40.20N 100.58W
06/19/2021  M67 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KMCK MCCOOK AIRPORT.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
816 PM MDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     TSTM WND GST     PENOKEE                 39.35N 99.98W
06/19/2021  M59 MPH          GRAHAM             KS   MESONET

            SITE KEITH SPRAYING REPORTS 59MPH WIND GUST.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
819 PM MDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND GST     MORLAND                 39.35N 100.08W
06/19/2021  M85 MPH          GRAHAM             KS   PUBLIC

            SITE KKSMORLA2.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S MCCOOK              40.15N 100.63W
06/19/2021  M73 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   MESONET

            SITE KNEMCCOO24.

&&

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
825 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

KSZ041-042-200300-
Wichita KS-Greeley KS-
825 PM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WICHITA AND SOUTHERN
GREELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT/...

At 825 PM MDT/925 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles south of Tribune, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Selkirk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM
MDT/midnight CDT/ for west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3839 10204 3851 10143 3826 10144 3826 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 256DEG 36KT 3832 10176

AW