Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
310 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021

Tonight...the combination of sufficient moisture in the 850-700mb
layer along a subtle wind shift line from roughly Yuma to Burlington
and Tribune may act as a focus for initiation for our next round of
showers and thunderstorms early this evening. By 03z thunderstorm
activity should be east of a line from Yuma to Colby and Oakley and
by 06z extend from Trenton to Hill City east. Thunderstorm activity
should be just east of the forecast area a few hours after midnight
with dry conditions for the remainder of the night. All modes of
severe weather are possible. With precipitable water values as high
as 1.5-1.7 inches locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be
possible. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 40s
to around 60.

Thursday-Thursday night...a cold front moves through the area during
the day with a 1025mb surface high nosing into the area from the
northeast during the night. North to northwest winds gusting up to
35 mph are expected through the day with decreasing winds during the
night. There is a slim chance for a thunderstorm or two across
southwest Cheyenne county CO in the evening as some mid level
moisture moves in from the northwest. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures are expected to be in
the low to mid 40s.

Friday-Friday night...dry conditions are expected. 850mb
temperatures warm a few degrees across the western CWA where some
short wave ridging moves in ahead of a larger upper level low
centered north of Montana. Southerly winds slowly increase through
the day with gusts up to 35 mph possible. High temperatures are
expected to be in the low to upper 70s. Low temperatures fall into
the mid 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021

Saturday...thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon with a
high probability of precipitation during the night as a subtle upper
trough moves through from the west. Locally heavy rainfall is
expected and flash flooding cannot be ruled out. High temperatures
are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with low temperatures in
the lower 50s.

Sunday...precipitation chances remain fairly high as weather
disturbances periodically move through the area in west to northwest
flow aloft. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s to near 70
with low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Monday...good chances for additional precipitation continue during
the day before some drier air aloft moves in from the northwest as
an upper trough starts to move away from the area. High temperatures
remain cool for this time of year in the low 60s to near 70. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Tuesday...will need to maintain low chances for thunderstorms as
another weather system moves in from the northwest. High
temperatures look to be in the mid 60s to low 70s with low
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday...a large upper trough moves across the area and will be
supportive of continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures warm back into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southeast
winds gusting to 30kts or so are expected from taf issuance
through very early this evening before veering to the northwest
around 10kts by 09z as a cold front moves through. These northwest
winds increase in the morning with gusts around 30kts expected.
Presently, confidence in timing specific thunderstorm threats at
the terminal are too low to include a mention in the forecast. Its
possible that thunderstorm activity could be near the terminal in
the 00z-02z timeframe.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. East-
southeast winds gusting up to 25kts or so are expected from taf
issuance through 23z. From 00z-06z winds will be from the east
10-13kts. After 06z winds shift to the north then northwest at
speeds under 10kts initially, picking up into the 20g30kt range by
mid morning. Thunderstorm chances exist from taf issuance through
about 20z or so with a possible lull in activity until the 02z-05z
timeframe when another threat moves toward the terminal. Large
hail and damaging winds are the primary threats and rainfall rates
could cause sub VFR vis and cigs.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271300-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
320 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021 /420 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

The threat for severe thunderstorms remains possible through late
this evening. Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing
hail up to the size of tennis balls, wind gusts to 70 mph and a few
tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible and could
produce flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend and into
Monday. Areas receiving heavy rainfall may experience flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. We would appreciate reports of
hail in excess of one inch in diameter, wind gusts in excess of 60
mph, funnel clouds, tornadoes, and flash flooding via telephone and
social media.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1110 AM MDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     HAIL             5 S GOODLAND            39.28N 101.71W
05/26/2021  M2.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1112 AM MDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     HAIL             7 S GOODLAND            39.25N 101.73W
05/26/2021  M1.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

RRH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
129 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ003-004-261900-
Norton KS-Decatur KS-
129 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NORTON AND EASTERN
DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Oberlin, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oberlin, Norcatur, Jennings, Clayton and Kanona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 10018 3965 10051 3983 10058 4000 10027
      4000 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 254DEG 16KT 3977 10044

Husted

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
329 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TORNADO          6 N BENKELMAN           40.14N 101.55W
05/26/2021                   DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
340 PM MDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TORNADO          4 N BENKELMAN           40.11N 101.53W
05/26/2021                   DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF STOVEPIPE TORNADO ON THE GROUND ON
            HWY 61.

&&

TT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
447 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ028-042-262215-
Wichita KS-Logan KS-
447 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WICHITA AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Leoti, moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Wichita
and southwestern Logan Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for west central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3851 10122 3854 10148 3891 10147 3890 10115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 182DEG 29KT 3863 10136

Lockhart