Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Grand Junction, CO

215 
WWUS55 KGJT 142044
SVSGJT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
244 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

COC045-077-142100-
/O.CON.KGJT.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210714T2100Z/
Mesa CO-Garfield CO-
244 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MESA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES...

At 244 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Silt to 8 miles south of Rifle to 9 miles north of
Collbran to near Parachute, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
  north central Mesa and south central Garfield Counties, including
  the following locations... Battlement Mesa.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 68 and 97.
 Colorado 13 between mile markers 1 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 10755 3933 10771 3929 10787 3935 10814
      3950 10816 3950 10801 3953 10785 3960 10772
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 328DEG 22KT 3953 10768 3942 10780 3938 10793
3942 10811

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Charnick

224 
WWUS55 KGJT 142058
SVSGJT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
258 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

COC045-077-142108-
/O.EXP.KGJT.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210714T2100Z/
Mesa CO-Garfield CO-
258 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MESA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM MDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3947 10755 3933 10771 3929 10787 3935 10814
      3950 10816 3950 10801 3953 10785 3960 10772
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 328DEG 22KT 3948 10764 3937 10776 3933 10789
3937 10807

$$

Charnick

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
157 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Few things going on this afternoon across the forecast area with
dense debris clouds stunting convective potential across our
southern zones, while shortwave energy enters from the northwest.
HiRez models driving a strong line of convection south into the
Bookcliffs/Tavaputs ranges this afternoon (verifying nicely right
now) with convection pushing south through this evening. Heavy
rainfall has been noted with innocuous cells earlier today and
potential for strong cells passing over burn scars will be high
this evening. Flash Flood Watches were issued earlier today and no
plans on pulling those down. Convection is expected to end between
04Z and 06Z this evening as it drift into our southern zones and
encounters cooler and more stable conditions.

Thursday and Thursday night as not exactly a rinse and repeat
forecast as we will see some drying across the area, but
convection will be more diurnally driven (pop and drop) with
precipitable water values trailing off below an inch in most
areas. Seasonal temps look appropriate and on track with current
guidance numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

High pressure strengthens over Rockies this weekend with drying
and warming conditions setting in. Diurnally driven convection
becomes more isolated in nature and confined to the higher terrain
near the divide and over our southern zones. Northern areas looks
to be the driest and will see humidity values dropping as
temperatures start climbing. This should elevate fire weather
concerns as we move into early next week, although no major wind
events noted at this time.

The ridge axis is expected to shift eastward by mid-week, which
will open the door for another burst of monsoonal moisture. Models
driving precipitable water values over 1.25 inches, promising the
potential for heavy rainfall once again. Still plenty of time
before we get to enjoy this next round, but it's nice these waves
of higher moisture sweeping through.

Temperatures will rebound into the 5 to 10 degrees above normal
range which sends the lower valleys back into the triple digits by
Monday, with temps backing off by mid-week as the deeper moisture
returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Swath of light, stratiform precipitation will continue to slide
southeast across southwest Colorado through early this afternoon
with new thunderstorms developing north of I-70. The strong
thunderstorms will push south of I-70 between 00Z-03Z and exit
south of the area by 06Z. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions with CIGS and
VSBYS restricted at times as showers pass through. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions will prevail with widespread smoke from
western wildfires.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Ample monsoonal moisture streaming across the region will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The
potential for heavy rain falling over already saturated soils as
well as recent burn scars have prompted the issuance of Flash
Flood Watches through this evening. Areas highlighted this
morning reflect regions which have received higher precipitation
totals within the last 24 hours. Even though increased storm
motion is expected today, locally heavy rainfall will enhance the
risk for localized flash flooding within areas specified below.
Please continue to monitor the forecast for any updates to
flooding highlights.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for COZ003-018-019.

UT...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ028.

&&

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...ERW/JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
449 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-151100-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
449 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon with storms producing gusty outflow winds as well as
brief moderate to heavy rain. The potential for heavy rain
falling over burn scars as well as already saturated soils across
the San Juans in southwest Colorado may lead to flash flooding and
debris flows.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Drier conditions return Thursday as high pressure strengthens back
over the Great Basin. However, diurnal storms will persist over
the higher terrain through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
159 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

COZ003-007-013-142045-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus CO-Flat Tops CO-
Debeque to Silt Corridor CO-
159 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MDT...

At 158 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Rifle, or 32 miles northwest of Glenwood Springs,
moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch  hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rio Blanco.

This includes Colorado 13 between mile markers 13 and 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 10798 3983 10794 3981 10758 3969 10757
      3958 10768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 283DEG 21KT 3976 10788

MDM/MAC