Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

As of 2:45 pm satellite shows the remnants of a pesky, narrow, lower
level stratus deck breaking up over the northern portions of the
CWA. Under this cloud deck temperatures are struggling to reach 80
degrees. Clear areas are currently into the mid 80s across south
central NE, and mid 90s in KS. Breezy southerly flow at the sfc
today thanks to a tightening sfc pressure gradient from being wedged
between an approaching sfc low to the northwest and the departed
sfc high to the northeast. The main focus of the forecast is the
severe weather potential this evening and tonight, as well as the
heat the next two days. Then in the extended there are plenty of
off and on chances for more showers and thunderstorms and warmer
than average temps continue.

PoPs and the severe weather threat tonight:

Ahead of an upper level trof a sfc low is set to move across the
Northern Plains later this afternoon. This will push a weak cold
front through the area that will then stall around the state line
later tonight.

This looks to be one of those situations where development of
convection will be rather isolated in nature, but what does develop
has the chance of quickly going severe. The atmosphere is rather
primed for severe weather (though there is a slight cap in place,
but the frontal boundary should help with that). Most of our CAPE is
coming from daytime heating today, with most models showing around
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts. Low
and midlevel lapse rates look fairly steep, and there is decent low
level curvature to the hodograph. This is certainly supportive of
supercell development with large hail, damaging winds, and
potentially an isolated tornado. Models generally agree that the
main timing is between 7pm and 1am, though we could still see a few
isolated storms outside this time period. With regards to location,
there is disagreement amongst models. The HRRR and the NAMNEST both
keep things a little farther south, around the state line, sweeping
across from west to east. The RAP shows development over the western
CWA that sort of stalls out and dies then redevelops with the LLJ
later tonight over the far eastern CWA. The EC and the GFS keep
storms focused around the I-80 corridor sweeping from west to east.
Even this close in time there is still too much uncertainty as to
how exactly this will play out later.

The remainder of the forecast is characterized by southwest flow
aloft, broad upper level high pressure to our south, and periodic
small waves pushing through that bring off and on chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow and Tuesday look to be
uncomfortably hot, with highs well into the 90s and heat indices
from 100-105 degrees. Then tomorrow afternoon a weak midlevel wave
moves through and could help to spur some late afternoon to early
evening showers and storms, a few of which could be strong to
severe. Tuesday afternoon another quick shortwave moves through
along with a sfc cold front which could bring some showers and
storms to the eastern most portions of the CWA Tuesday evening.
Beyond Tuesday temperatures come down only slightly, still
remaining in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Several more
perturbations in the flow make their way across the area and bring
more off and on chances for rain to the forecast throughout the
week. On Thursday a broad upper level trof moves over the NW CONUS
and then gradually lifts over Canada on Friday, but a second and
more energized trof forms right on its heels and could be
something to watch in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Main concern is strong to severe storms forming across the outlook
area this evening and overnight. A few of these storms could
affect the terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the end of the TAF period. Winds will become lighter over
the next several hours and will generally remain out of the south
and southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Shawkey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
314 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight. There
is a slight risk for severe storms. The main threats will be hail
to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to around 60 mph. An
isolated tornado is also possible.

Heat index values this afternoon will be around 100 degrees for
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will again be possible across portions of the
outlook area at various points Monday afternoon through Saturday
night. A few of these storms could be strong to severe Monday and
Tuesday.

Monday and Tuesday will feature heat index values around 100 to
105 degrees, mainly within southern and eastern portions of the
outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed after 5 PM. Reports of any hail, wind
damage, and funnel clouds are always appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
848 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             8 W PLEASANTON          40.97N 99.24W
08/22/2021  E1.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED VIA NTV.

&&

ADP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
852 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

NEZ073-082-083-230245-
Phelps NE-Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
852 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Phelps,
eastern Furnas and Harlan Counties through 945 PM CDT...

At 852 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Orleans, or 19 miles south of Holdrege, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Alma around 905 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Huntley and Ragan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 10006 4035 9967 4035 9964 4036 9964
      4049 9919 4045 9918 4012 9918 4000 9988
      4000 9995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 260DEG 22KT 4018 9949

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
858 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NW ORLEANS            40.19N 99.52W
08/22/2021  M63 MPH          HARLAN             NE   MESONET

&&

ADP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
915 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

KSZ006-007-NEZ085-086-230300-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Nuckolls NE-Webster NE-
915 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Jewell,
northeastern Smith, Nuckolls and southern Webster Counties through
1000 PM CDT...

At 915 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Red Cloud, or 36 miles south of Hastings, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cowles around 920 PM CDT.
  Guide Rock around 930 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Bostwick, Superior,
Nelson and Nora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9793 3993 9793 3986 9861 4007 9873
      4014 9873 4034 9803 4000 9788
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 262DEG 28KT 4007 9850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
919 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNE INAVALE           40.16N 98.61W
08/22/2021  M55 MPH          WEBSTER            NE   MESONET

            DAVIS WEATHERLINK STATION.

&&

MANGELS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
933 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

NEZ084-085-230315-
Franklin NE-Webster NE-
933 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Franklin and western
Webster Counties through 1015 PM CDT...

At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Naponee, or 26 miles southeast of Holdrege, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bloomington around 945 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Franklin, Riverton
and Inavale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 9860 4000 9858 4000 9875 4003 9918
      4022 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 267DEG 25KT 4011 9912

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels