Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

As of 2:45 pm satellite shows the remnants of a pesky, narrow, lower
level stratus deck breaking up over the northern portions of the
CWA. Under this cloud deck temperatures are struggling to reach 80
degrees. Clear areas are currently into the mid 80s across south
central NE, and mid 90s in KS. Breezy southerly flow at the sfc
today thanks to a tightening sfc pressure gradient from being wedged
between an approaching sfc low to the northwest and the departed
sfc high to the northeast. The main focus of the forecast is the
severe weather potential this evening and tonight, as well as the
heat the next two days. Then in the extended there are plenty of
off and on chances for more showers and thunderstorms and warmer
than average temps continue.

PoPs and the severe weather threat tonight:

Ahead of an upper level trof a sfc low is set to move across the
Northern Plains later this afternoon. This will push a weak cold
front through the area that will then stall around the state line
later tonight.

This looks to be one of those situations where development of
convection will be rather isolated in nature, but what does develop
has the chance of quickly going severe. The atmosphere is rather
primed for severe weather (though there is a slight cap in place,
but the frontal boundary should help with that). Most of our CAPE is
coming from daytime heating today, with most models showing around
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts. Low
and midlevel lapse rates look fairly steep, and there is decent low
level curvature to the hodograph. This is certainly supportive of
supercell development with large hail, damaging winds, and
potentially an isolated tornado. Models generally agree that the
main timing is between 7pm and 1am, though we could still see a few
isolated storms outside this time period. With regards to location,
there is disagreement amongst models. The HRRR and the NAMNEST both
keep things a little farther south, around the state line, sweeping
across from west to east. The RAP shows development over the western
CWA that sort of stalls out and dies then redevelops with the LLJ
later tonight over the far eastern CWA. The EC and the GFS keep
storms focused around the I-80 corridor sweeping from west to east.
Even this close in time there is still too much uncertainty as to
how exactly this will play out later.

The remainder of the forecast is characterized by southwest flow
aloft, broad upper level high pressure to our south, and periodic
small waves pushing through that bring off and on chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow and Tuesday look to be
uncomfortably hot, with highs well into the 90s and heat indices
from 100-105 degrees. Then tomorrow afternoon a weak midlevel wave
moves through and could help to spur some late afternoon to early
evening showers and storms, a few of which could be strong to
severe. Tuesday afternoon another quick shortwave moves through
along with a sfc cold front which could bring some showers and
storms to the eastern most portions of the CWA Tuesday evening.
Beyond Tuesday temperatures come down only slightly, still
remaining in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Several more
perturbations in the flow make their way across the area and bring
more off and on chances for rain to the forecast throughout the
week. On Thursday a broad upper level trof moves over the NW CONUS
and then gradually lifts over Canada on Friday, but a second and
more energized trof forms right on its heels and could be
something to watch in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Main concern is strong to severe storms forming across the outlook
area this evening and overnight. A few of these storms could
affect the terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the end of the TAF period. Winds will become lighter over
the next several hours and will generally remain out of the south
and southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Shawkey

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
748 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALMA                    40.10N 99.36W
08/22/2021  M2.28 INCH       HARLAN             NE   MESONET

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN TOWN.

&&

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
811 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND GST     BEAVER CITY             40.14N 99.83W
08/22/2021  E50 MPH          FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

PFANNKUCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
817 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALMA                    40.10N 99.36W
08/22/2021  M3.00 INCH       HARLAN             NE   PUBLIC

            VIEWER REPORT RELAYED BY NTV.

&&

PFANNKUCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
818 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

NEZ040-041-046>048-061-062-230200-
Merrick NE-Buffalo NE-Nance NE-Howard NE-Hall NE-Greeley NE-
Sherman NE-
818 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Greeley, western Nance, northeastern Buffalo, northwestern Merrick,
southern Sherman, Howard and northwestern Hall Counties through 900
PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ravenna, or 27 miles north of Kearney, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rockville around 830 PM CDT.
  Ashton and Boelus around 835 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Farwell, Dannebrog,
Elba, St. Paul and Cushing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 9829 4148 9810 4150 9808 4120 9783
      4090 9892 4114 9920 4157 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 246DEG 36KT 4110 9896

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels