Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

As of 2PM, convection is beginning to intensify in and just west
of the forecast area. This is on the south side of remnant MCV,
with enhancement from the upper trough. Although individual
solutions vary, CAMs have had a decent handle on this potential,
and as such, these storms are expected to persist as they move
across the forecast area later this afternoon and early this
evening. Although the highest instability axis has shifted south
of the area with the front, decent low level moisture persists and
latest SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Along
with 40kts of deep layer shear, this will support at least a few
severe updrafts as these storms move through.

After these storms weaken and/or move out of the area (by roughly
9pm), attention shifts to convection moving northeastward out of
southwestern KS. This convection will likely be weakening with
time as it moves away from the stronger instability and 850mb
convergence. Even still, this may impact portions of our Kansas
counties with marginally severe hail/wind.

A few showers may persist into Saturday morning, with additional
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon and early evening. Fortunately, the cooler and
increasingly dry airmass will reduce the risk for severe weather
across the local area. Temperatures will be roughly 10 degrees
below normal with highs only in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

Saturday night into Sunday morning should be mostly dry, but we
cannot totally rule out a few more showers or afternoon
thunderstorms as the upper trough remains overhead.

Daily slight chances for rain/thunder will continue through much
of next week as the upper trough makes very little eastward
progress. But despite all the PoPs, I expect that precipitation
will be pretty hit and miss and will not provide significant
relief from the increasingly dry conditions across parts of the
area. The good news is that the threat for severe weather should
be fairly low through next week.

The stagnant trough has also caused our temperature forecast to
trend a bit cooler as well. Temperatures may bounce back closer to
normal by the middle of the week, but we probably won't be seeing
any 90 degree days until at least the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Scattered thunderstorms moving through central Nebraska currently
should exit the area by 03-04Z.

Skies will remain broken to overcast through the night, with some
low stratus still expected to develop in the early morning of
Saturday. A few showers may also develop around dawn on Saturday.

Isolated, diurnally-driven thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
923 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
270230-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
923 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across parts of the local
area overnight...with the most favored areas being across portions
of north central Kansas and areas of south central Nebraska east
of Highway 281. While severe thunderstorms are not anticipated...a
few stronger storms could produce small hail and wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There are at least slight chances for thunderstorms each day
through Thursday. We cannot rule out a few strong or severe
storms, but the overall severe threat appears fairly low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is no longer anticipated tonight...although
reports of hail of any size and damaging wind gusts are always
appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
819 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTRAL CITY            41.11N 98.00W
06/25/2021                   MERRICK            NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

REED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
843 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ005-017-260230-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-
843 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROOKS AND SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 843 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Speed to near Bogue. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Damar around 900 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Palco, Stockton,
Woodston and Zurich.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3913 9960 3957 9960 3957 9963 3966 9963
      3966 9907 3957 9907 3957 9905 3951 9904
      3913 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 315DEG 18KT 3961 9940 3933 9972

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
940 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ006-017-018-260330-
Rooks KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-
940 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROOKS...SOUTHEASTERN
SMITH AND OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 940 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Harlan to near Woodston to near Plainville.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Portis and Harlan around 945 PM CDT.
  Osborne around 955 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Downs.

LAT...LON 3914 9961 3927 9960 3946 9917 3969 9878
      3960 9850 3913 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 302DEG 22KT 3960 9873 3941 9906 3917 9931

Shawkey

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1012 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     HAIL             1 S PLAINVILLE          39.22N 99.30W
06/25/2021  E1.00 INCH       ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM TWITTER.

&&

SR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1026 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ007-018-019-260415-
Jewell KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
1026 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MITCHELL...SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL
AND EASTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Randall to near Downs to 9 miles south of
Osborne. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Randall around 1030 PM CDT.
  Scottsville around 1045 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Glen Elder,
Tipton, Beloit, Hunter and Victor.

LAT...LON 3926 9892 3951 9860 3965 9806 3963 9793
      3922 9793 3922 9849 3913 9849 3913 9891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 283DEG 20KT 3961 9806 3947 9853 3931 9876

Shawkey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1109 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ019-260500-
Mitchell KS-
1109 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MITCHELL COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

At 1109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Beloit to 8 miles southeast of Glen Elder
to Victor. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Beloit and Scottsville around 1120 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Asherville and
Simpson.

LAT...LON 3945 9849 3954 9817 3954 9793 3922 9793
      3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 272DEG 22KT 3947 9805 3939 9823 3924 9828

Shawkey