Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
906 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Updated the forecast to account for the MCS that seems to finally
be pushing northeast/east toward the CWA and have updated POPs to
account for this into the overnight. Looks like there still will
be a shot at some at least marginally severe wind and marginally
severe hail in our west, and diminish in severity probs as the MCS
continues to move east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Clouds continue to move across the area. The lower clouds are
breaking up a bit as some mid or high clouds move into the area.
There are a few breaks in the clouds, but the larger breaks are to
the south and west of the forecast area. A surface low and cold
front have mainly cleared the forecast area already this afternoon.
They are just to the south/southeast of the forecast area at this
time.

An upper level trough is poised to move through the forecast area
tonight. As the trough moves through, there will be an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms. The CAMs are fairly consistent
with initiating the activity on the high Plains and moving it into
the area. The main difference from this morning is that it is a
little slower. Have slowed the onset of PoPs for this, but have some
concern that it could even be later yet. The CAPE is not especially
strong, but there is strong shear. Once into the evening time frame,
the CAPE drops off, especially in the area of the best chance for
thunderstorms. Still expect there to be a few strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening and tonight, but there are a few things
going against the strength. There has not been as much heating today
with the cloud cover and therefore the instability is a little less.
Going into the night time with the storms will also be against them.
They are coming into a strongly sheared atmosphere and if they are
going well, are likely capable of continuing for a few hours before
they shut down.

Overnight, as the upper level trough moves into the area, there will
be some showers and thunderstorms across the area. These will
continue into Wednesday, but during the afternoon should diminish as
the trough moves further to the east. The showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm could continue in the southeast Wednesday
evening.

Thursday through Saturday night is expected to be dry with a warming
trend. A surface high moves through Thursday and Thursday night.
This will keep temperatures a little cooler, but warm advection on
Friday will start temperatures warming up, from around 70 on
Thursday to the upper 80s for Saturday.

A cold front and upper wave moves through Saturday night. This is
the start of an unsettled weather pattern that will bring a return
of showers and some on and off chances for thunderstorms.
Temperatures will also cool back down through next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Ceiling should ultimately keep lowering into the overnight as a
cluster of storms from the west approaches. Visibility may take a
dip into the MVFR range late in the overnight into Wednesday
morning as stratus continues to lower. Could get close to or
achieve for a short while an LIFR ceiling, especially to the west
near KEAR with lowering stratus Wednesday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Heinlein
DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
281200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
346 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances return to portions of the outlook area
this evening and tonight. A few of the storms could be strong to
severe primarily between 8 PM and 2 AM. The main hazards with any
possible severe storms appears to be hail up to around ping pong
ball size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances will linger across portions of the outlook
area Wednesday afternoon, primarily south of the Tri-Cities. Any
thunderstorms on Wednesday are expected to remain non-severe.
Then after a several day break thunderstorm chances will again
return to the outlook area Sunday night into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening after 8 PM.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1051 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

NEZ072-082-083-280430-
Harlan NE-Gosper NE-Furnas NE-
1051 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GOSPER AND NORTHERN
FURNAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1050 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles southeast of Hayes Center to near
Lebanon. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Holbrook, Edison and Wilsonville.

LAT...LON 4035 10010 4044 10009 4044 9998 4055 9998
      4026 9956 4007 10019 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 243DEG 31KT 4043 10078 4012 10032

Heinlein