Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
114 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Updated the forecast to account for the MCS that seems to finally
be pushing northeast/east toward the CWA and have updated POPs to
account for this into the overnight. Looks like there still will
be a shot at some at least marginally severe wind and marginally
severe hail in our west, and diminish in severity probs as the MCS
continues to move east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Clouds continue to move across the area. The lower clouds are
breaking up a bit as some mid or high clouds move into the area.
There are a few breaks in the clouds, but the larger breaks are to
the south and west of the forecast area. A surface low and cold
front have mainly cleared the forecast area already this afternoon.
They are just to the south/southeast of the forecast area at this
time.

An upper level trough is poised to move through the forecast area
tonight. As the trough moves through, there will be an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms. The CAMs are fairly consistent
with initiating the activity on the high Plains and moving it into
the area. The main difference from this morning is that it is a
little slower. Have slowed the onset of PoPs for this, but have some
concern that it could even be later yet. The CAPE is not especially
strong, but there is strong shear. Once into the evening time frame,
the CAPE drops off, especially in the area of the best chance for
thunderstorms. Still expect there to be a few strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening and tonight, but there are a few things
going against the strength. There has not been as much heating today
with the cloud cover and therefore the instability is a little less.
Going into the night time with the storms will also be against them.
They are coming into a strongly sheared atmosphere and if they are
going well, are likely capable of continuing for a few hours before
they shut down.

Overnight, as the upper level trough moves into the area, there will
be some showers and thunderstorms across the area. These will
continue into Wednesday, but during the afternoon should diminish as
the trough moves further to the east. The showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm could continue in the southeast Wednesday
evening.

Thursday through Saturday night is expected to be dry with a warming
trend. A surface high moves through Thursday and Thursday night.
This will keep temperatures a little cooler, but warm advection on
Friday will start temperatures warming up, from around 70 on
Thursday to the upper 80s for Saturday.

A cold front and upper wave moves through Saturday night. This is
the start of an unsettled weather pattern that will bring a return
of showers and some on and off chances for thunderstorms.
Temperatures will also cool back down through next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

We have thunderstorms tracking northeast across the area early
this morning. There have been some pretty good wind gusts with
some of these thunderstorms along with some small hail. Most of
these thunderstorms will have either moved out of the area or have
weakened by 3 AM. A few showers could still be possible around the
area through the morning hours. The bigger concern will be the low
ceiling heights with IFR ceilings expected through much of the
day as well as possible MVFR visibility at times. Ceilings and
visibility should finally begin to improve by this evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Heinlein
DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...Wesely

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
281200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
346 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances return to portions of the outlook area
this evening and tonight. A few of the storms could be strong to
severe primarily between 8 PM and 2 AM. The main hazards with any
possible severe storms appears to be hail up to around ping pong
ball size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances will linger across portions of the outlook
area Wednesday afternoon, primarily south of the Tri-Cities. Any
thunderstorms on Wednesday are expected to remain non-severe.
Then after a several day break thunderstorm chances will again
return to the outlook area Sunday night into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening after 8 PM.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 AM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N OXFORD              40.27N 99.63W
04/28/2021  M54 MPH          FURNAS             NE   MESONET

            WEATHERLINK MESONET WL-OXFORD 1.25N.

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1213 AM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 S JOHNSON LAKE        40.64N 99.84W
04/28/2021  M52 MPH          GOSPER             NE   MESONET

            WEATHERLINK MESONET WL-JOHNSON LAKE 2.88S.

&&

REED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

NEZ060-061-073-280615-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Dawson NE-
1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...BUFFALO AND
EASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1231 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Sumner to 11 miles
southwest of Amherst to near Overton to near Elm Creek to 7 miles
southwest of Odessa. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Ravenna, Elm Creek, Overton, Odessa, Pleasanton, Amherst,
Sumner, Riverdale, Miller, Eddyville and Poole.

LAT...LON 4105 9958 4105 9894 4102 9889 4093 9877
      4066 9915 4066 9918 4064 9918 4054 9939
      4061 9949 4069 9953 4071 9952 4088 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 225DEG 28KT 4088 9963 4076 9947 4074 9947 4066
9943 4063 9937

Heinlein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW OVERTON           40.64N 99.59W
04/28/2021  M52 MPH          PHELPS             NE   MESONET

            WEATHERLINK MESONET WL-OVERTON 7.33SSW.

&&

REED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

NEZ061-073-074-280630-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-
1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PHELPS...CENTRAL
KEARNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1241 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Axtell, or 8 miles south of Kearney, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Minden, Gibbon, Shelton, Axtell and Heartwell.

LAT...LON 4059 9931 4100 9872 4060 9872 4040 9906
      4050 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 231DEG 36KT 4058 9908

Heinlein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
118 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

NEZ048-061>063-075-280700-
Merrick NE-Buffalo NE-Adams NE-Hamilton NE-Hall NE-
118 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ADAMS...WEST CENTRAL
HAMILTON...EASTERN BUFFALO...SOUTHWESTERN MERRICK AND HALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 117 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Prosser, or 16 miles northwest of Hastings, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Island, Wood River, Shelton, Kenesaw, Doniphan, Alda, Chapman,
Phillips and Prosser.

LAT...LON 4059 9867 4065 9872 4069 9872 4069 9876
      4074 9880 4104 9830 4106 9828 4114 9814
      4092 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 235DEG 38KT 4071 9866

Heinlein