Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Hastings, NE

631 
WWUS53 KGID 222305
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

NEC065-083-222315-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-210822T2315Z/
Furnas NE-Harlan NE-
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FURNAS AND WESTERN
HARLAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

In addition, another Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect until 
630 PM CDT for southeastern Furnas County. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4002 9958 4006 9977 4032 9970 4024 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 202DEG 14KT 4017 9963 

$$

Pfannkuch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
306 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

As of 2:45 pm satellite shows the remnants of a pesky, narrow, lower
level stratus deck breaking up over the northern portions of the
CWA. Under this cloud deck temperatures are struggling to reach 80
degrees. Clear areas are currently into the mid 80s across south
central NE, and mid 90s in KS. Breezy southerly flow at the sfc
today thanks to a tightening sfc pressure gradient from being wedged
between an approaching sfc low to the northwest and the departed
sfc high to the northeast. The main focus of the forecast is the
severe weather potential this evening and tonight, as well as the
heat the next two days. Then in the extended there are plenty of
off and on chances for more showers and thunderstorms and warmer
than average temps continue.

PoPs and the severe weather threat tonight:

Ahead of an upper level trof a sfc low is set to move across the
Northern Plains later this afternoon. This will push a weak cold
front through the area that will then stall around the state line
later tonight.

This looks to be one of those situations where development of
convection will be rather isolated in nature, but what does develop
has the chance of quickly going severe. The atmosphere is rather
primed for severe weather (though there is a slight cap in place,
but the frontal boundary should help with that). Most of our CAPE is
coming from daytime heating today, with most models showing around
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts. Low
and midlevel lapse rates look fairly steep, and there is decent low
level curvature to the hodograph. This is certainly supportive of
supercell development with large hail, damaging winds, and
potentially an isolated tornado. Models generally agree that the
main timing is between 7pm and 1am, though we could still see a few
isolated storms outside this time period. With regards to location,
there is disagreement amongst models. The HRRR and the NAMNEST both
keep things a little farther south, around the state line, sweeping
across from west to east. The RAP shows development over the western
CWA that sort of stalls out and dies then redevelops with the LLJ
later tonight over the far eastern CWA. The EC and the GFS keep
storms focused around the I-80 corridor sweeping from west to east.
Even this close in time there is still too much uncertainty as to
how exactly this will play out later.

The remainder of the forecast is characterized by southwest flow
aloft, broad upper level high pressure to our south, and periodic
small waves pushing through that bring off and on chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow and Tuesday look to be
uncomfortably hot, with highs well into the 90s and heat indices
from 100-105 degrees. Then tomorrow afternoon a weak midlevel wave
moves through and could help to spur some late afternoon to early
evening showers and storms, a few of which could be strong to
severe. Tuesday afternoon another quick shortwave moves through
along with a sfc cold front which could bring some showers and
storms to the eastern most portions of the CWA Tuesday evening.
Beyond Tuesday temperatures come down only slightly, still
remaining in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Several more
perturbations in the flow make their way across the area and bring
more off and on chances for rain to the forecast throughout the
week. On Thursday a broad upper level trof moves over the NW CONUS
and then gradually lifts over Canada on Friday, but a second and
more energized trof forms right on its heels and could be
something to watch in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs. Breezy southerly
winds today with gusts to around 20-25 kts at times. Later this
afternoon and evening chances for isolated thunderstorms increase
as a weak frontal boundary slides through the area. Pinpointing
the location of these storms is still difficult at this time,
though they could very well affect the terminals. Also expecting a little
bit of LLWS around midnight local time tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Shawkey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
314 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight. There
is a slight risk for severe storms. The main threats will be hail
to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to around 60 mph. An
isolated tornado is also possible.

Heat index values this afternoon will be around 100 degrees for
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will again be possible across portions of the
outlook area at various points Monday afternoon through Saturday
night. A few of these storms could be strong to severe Monday and
Tuesday.

Monday and Tuesday will feature heat index values around 100 to
105 degrees, mainly within southern and eastern portions of the
outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed after 5 PM. Reports of any hail, wind
damage, and funnel clouds are always appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
512 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

NEZ082-222300-
Furnas NE-
512 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Furnas
County through 600 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong to severe
thunderstorm near Lebanon, or 16 miles east of McCook, moving
northeast at 30 mph. If this storm maintains its intensity as it
approaches western Furnas County, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning may
be issued within the next 30 to 45 minutes.

This thunderstorm will be near...
Wilsonville around 530 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Cambridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4030 10019 4035 10009 4035 10006 4013 9990
      4001 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 239DEG 28KT 4011 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
518 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

NEZ082-083-222245-
Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
518 PM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Furnas
and southwestern Harlan Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Beaver City, or 15 miles northeast of Norton,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hollinger around 535 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Stamford, Oxford
and Orleans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 9964 4010 9941 4000 9961 4000 9985
      4002 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 228DEG 24KT 4003 9976

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Pfannkuch