Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
122 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are spreading north into the forecast area
from the south. Another band of showers with isolated thunderstorms
are moving in from the west in the vicinity of Interstate 80.

An active weather pattern will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area through the next week. During this time,
it it not expected to rain all of the time, but there will be
showers and thunderstorms on and off through the period.

Current convective activity is expected to continue to spread across
the forecast area through the morning. An upper level wave will move
through the area today. The morning will have the best chance and
during the afternoon the wave is moving to the east and there is
less of a chance during the afternoon. This afternoon and into the
evening hours the MUCAPE is over 3000 J/kg and there could be a few
strong to severe thunderstorms. The clouds and chance for
precipitation will keep temperatures from warming as much as
yesterday and highs will be around 70 degrees. Later this evening,
the CAPE diminishes and expect there to be less thunderstorm
activity.

An upper level low in the southwest CONUS will move into the central
plains by Wednesday. There will be several waves that move through
the area during this time. Forecast models have a few differences in
the timing and strength of these waves that move through. This makes
it difficult to have confidence in timing the waves and when there
will be precipitation. At this time, the best chances appear to be
during the afternoon and night time for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday and Thursday evening there cold be a bit of a break. The
upper low becomes more of an open wave and moves to the northeast.
There appears to be a little bit of a break, but not a complete
break. There is still some chances for showers and thunderstorms,
but the chances are smaller. Another upper low then develops in the
southwest CONUS by Friday and sending some weak waves through that
bring smaller chances for showers and thunderstorms before
increasing chances again by Saturday.

Temperatures through the period will show a warming trend early in
the week, peaking around 80 degrees for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Ceiling/visibility:
Although at least a brief period (perhaps several hours?) of VFR
ceiling is possible this afternoon, the majority of the period
(especially the latter half) has high confidence in ceiling
deteriorating to at least IFR and possibly LIFR, along with the
possibility of at least MVFR/IFR visibility in light fog (and
perhaps drizzle).

Precipitation/thunderstorm potential:
Although a brief shower cannot be ruled out this afternoon and
pockets of light drizzle cannot be ruled out later tonight into
Monday morning, for now have confined any official precipitation
mention to the 00-09Z time frame this evening-tonight, which is
the best window of opportunity for showers and/or thunderstorms at
least in the general area. Confidence in likelihood/coverage is
not enough for a prevailing mention, so will stick with "vicinity"
(VCTS/VCSH) for now. If thunderstorms do become an issue, gusty
winds/small hail are certainly possible.

Winds:
Outside of any possible short-term gustiness/directional changes
associated with thunderstorm activity, winds should not be a major
issue. Sustained speeds should largely prevail around 10KT,
although direction will gradually transition from south-
southeasterly this afternoon, to more east-northeasterly tonight
into Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1058 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
171200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1058 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A Flash Flood Warning is in effect into this afternoon for
southern portions of Rooks and Osborne counties in north central
Kansas. In addition, a Flood Advisory is in effect into this
afternoon for parts of west-central Dawson County. Please refer
to the Warning and Advisory statements for details.

This afternoon through tonight, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible anywhere in the outlook area, but
coverage of storms is expected to be fairly spotty, and not
widespread. While most storms should not be severe, most of the
outlook area is under a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms.
Should any occur, they would be most favored between 5 PM and
midnight, with the main threats being hail to around the size of
quarters and wind gusts to around 60 MPH.

In addition, spotty areas of heavy rain of at least 1 to 2 inches
cannot be ruled out through tonight, which could cause mainly minor
flooding, especially in those limited parts of the outlook area
that received at least 2 inches of rain Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There are a number of thunderstorm chances throughout this time
frame, with at least a small chance of storms somewhere in the
outlook area nearly every day or night. Please note that most of
these chances carry fairly low confidence at this time, and could
be subject to considerable adjustment over the coming days.

At this time, the potential for severe storms between Monday
morning and Tuesday night appears fairly low. Beyond Tuesday
night, it is too early to confidently assess severe storm
potential for later in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail, thunderstorm wind
gusts over 50 MPH, and possible flooding that might occur through
tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
850 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N OXFORD              40.27N 99.63W
05/16/2021  M2.49 INCH       FURNAS             NE   MESONET

            OVERNIGHT RAIN TOTAL.

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NATOMA                  39.19N 99.02W
05/16/2021                   OSBORNE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING IN NATOMA, KS. THE
            SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN IS UNDER WATER FROM
            PARADISE CREEK. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS
            ESTIMATING THAT OVER 100 PEOPLE HAVE NOW
            BEEN DISPLACED. EVACUATIONS AND BOAT RESCUES
            ARE STILL UNDERWAY.

&&

JJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
948 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW CODELL            39.20N 99.19W
05/16/2021  M8.16 INCH       ROOKS              KS   MESONET

            UNOFFICIAL OVERNIGHT RAIN TOTAL FROM
            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION...VAST MAJORITY OF
            WHICH FELL BETWEEN 1-4 AM.

&&

PFANNKUCH