Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Thursday/

A mix of cumulus and mid/upper level clouds continue to spread
across the region, keeping the temperatures a  degree or two cooler
than yesterday's. Still, expect high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s later today. Some locations across the southwest could
stay in the low 90s due to cloudy skies. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered diurnally driven showers and storms will continue to
develop through this evening. While the best coverage is expected to
remain south of I-20, isolated showers/storms will be possible
across North Texas. Strong gusty winds, lightning and heavy rain
will be the main threat with this activity.

Another weak shortwave will travel from the base of the upper ridge
on Thursday, providing sufficient lift for scattered showers/storms
in the afternoon and evening. The heat will continue to be a concern
especially along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20 as heat
indicies potentially reach 105. A heat advisory may be needed for
those areas Thursday afternoon with the potential of extending it
through the weekend.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/
/Friday Through Tuesday/

The anticyclone that has dominated the Central Plains will pivot,
its eastern extent stretching toward the Gulf coast. This will
temporarily end our rain chances this weekend while delivering
the hottest weather so far this year. Although weeks after the
average first 100F day, many locations have yet to see triple-
digit temperatures. That will likely change for some of these
sites, including Waco and Sherman/Denison. Rich tropical moisture
will remain in place, and although some mixing will occur,
afternoon dew points will stay oppressive, particularly across
East Texas. Portions of western North Texas may fail to reach heat
index values of 105, but a widespread heat advisory will likely be
needed for much of the region.

Extended guidance continues to agree on a pattern shift early
next week that will introduce northerly flow throughout the Plains
states. A cold front may reach the Red River as early as Sunday
afternoon/evening, reducing temperatures and returning rain
chances to the forecast. Although the front won't usher in
particularly cool air, the reduced heights aloft will keep
daytimes temperatures closer to normal while maintaining diurnal
rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...low convective potential through this evening.

VFR conditions will continue with light south/southeast winds and
SCT-BKN CU cloud deck for a few hours this afternoon. Another
round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is in the forecast
through this evening, but the best coverage is expected to remain
south of the DFW Metroplex sites. Minor impacts are possible
especially with the southern cornerposts. For now, we kept VCTS
only for Waco (between 20-00Z) given the low coverage in the
activity across North Texas. Trends will be monitored since a
storm or two could still develop near the sites. This activity
will diminish tonight, but scattered showers and storms will
likely develop again Thursday afternoon.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  98  80 100  81 /  10  20   0   5   0
Waco                77  95  78  97  78 /  10  20   0   5   0
Paris               76  96  77  98  78 /  10  10   0   5   0
Denton              76  98  76  99  77 /  10  20   0   5   0
McKinney            77  97  77  98  78 /  10  20   0   5   0
Dallas              81  98  81  99  82 /  10  20   0   5   0
Terrell             76  96  77  97  77 /  10  20   0   5   0
Corsicana           78  95  78  97  78 /  10  20   0   5   0
Temple              75  96  75  97  76 /   5  20   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       74  96  74  97  75 /  10  20   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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