Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
212 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 126 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/
/Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday/

Another seasonably hot day is taking shape across North and Central
TX as temperatures climb well into the 90s. A passing upper level
disturbance will provide the focus for isolated to scattered showers
and storms through this evening. Regional radar imagery shows a
few showers and storms popping up across the Arklatex region
moving to the south/southwest. Additionally, remnants of a weak
outflow boundary have resulted in light showers to the northwest.
With plenty of instability in place, we will see an increase in
showers/storm activity through this evening, but coverage will
remain around 20-40%. While severe weather is not anticipated, we
can't rule out some strong gusty winds in addition to heavy rain.
Wednesday's forecast will almost be a copy/paste from today.
Winds will still be light, but the highest storm chances (30-40%)
will be across Central TX. Nevertheless, we can't rule out a few
storms across parts of North TX.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Onward/

The extended forecast period consists of what should be some of the
hottest weather of the summer thus far. On Thursday, an upper
ridge over the Central Plains will elongate, spreading stronger
subsidence into North Texas amid rising heights. This should hold
precipitation chances at bay for most of North Texas, but
isolated shower or thunderstorm activity could still occur during
the day mainly south of I-20 as modest mid-level moisture streams
overhead within modest easterly flow. The rest of the forecast
area should see highs in the upper 90s with a couple spots
possibly touching the century mark.

The expansion of the upper ridge will continue on Friday into the
weekend. This should nearly eliminate rain chances, while
delivering widespread triple-digit heat to the forecast area by
Sunday. Heat Advisory criteria will almost certainly be met across
most of the CWA over the weekend, with perhaps the exception of
our southwestern zones where dewpoints will mix into the lower 60s
during the afternoon. The rest of the area should reach Heat
Advisory criteria either via heat index values exceeding 105 or
actual temperatures climbing to 103 or higher.

Early next week, a pattern shift to a deeper eastern CONUS trough
and an amplified western CONUS ridge could allow for a weak cold
frontal intrusion into North Texas. This setup would allow for the
return of some convective chances while also sending temperatures
back to near normal in the mid to upper 90s as opposed to triple
digits.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 126 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...convective potential through early this evening.

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period outside of
any thunderstorms that develop. Coverage is expected to remain
isolated, but storms will be capable of producing gusty winds.
Kept VCTS for all the DFW Metroplex terminals from 21Z through
02Z. Confidence in storm coverage across Central TX remains too low
to include VCTS at ACT at this time. However, we will continue to
monitor the trends through the evening. All activity will
diminish tonight with the loss of daytime heating with light and
variable winds through tomorrow. Looking beyond...another round of
isolated showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  80  98  80 /  20  20   0  10   5
Waco                77  95  77  96  77 /  10  30   5  20   5
Paris               76  95  76  96  77 /  20  10   0   5   0
Denton              76  98  76  98  76 /  20  20   0  10   5
McKinney            77  96  77  97  77 /  20  20   0  10   5
Dallas              80  98  81  98  82 /  20  20   0  10   5
Terrell             76  95  76  96  76 /  20  20   5  10   5
Corsicana           77  95  77  95  78 /  20  30   5  20   5
Temple              75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30   5  20   5
Mineral Wells       74  95  74  96  74 /  30  20   0  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
212 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
212 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Severe
weather is not anticipated, but some strong gusty winds are possible
in addition to the heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Afternoon thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday mainly
along and south of Interstate 20. Lightning and gusty winds will be
the primary hazards. After a hot and dry weekend with heat index
values likely exceeding 105, some thunderstorm chances will return
during the early portion of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
626 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ118-272345-
Tarrant TX-
626 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Haltom City, moving west at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Worth, Arlington, Bedford, Haltom City, Keller, Hurst, Watauga,
Saginaw, Richland Hills, Kennedale, Sansom Park, Lake Worth, North
Richland Hills, and Blue Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 9720 3278 9714 3264 9721 3284 9745
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 074DEG 7KT 3281 9726

Godwin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

TXZ116-280000-
Palo Pinto TX-
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Graford, or 17 miles southeast of Graham, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Possum Kingdom State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Possum Kingdom Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9857 3295 9843 3297 9843 3297 9840
      3290 9830 3277 9842 3280 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 065DEG 7KT 3290 9839

Godwin

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