Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
339 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1243 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021/
/Through Tuesday/

Broad upper-level cyclonic flow is now entrenched across virtually
all of the CONUS, which has helped to push a strong, late-season
cold front south to near the TX Gulf Coast. The 12Z RAOB from FWD
shows steep lapse rates aloft, with MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg.
Thunderstorms that developed earlier (and are still ongoing) are
rooted around 850 mb, some of which have been able to tap into
this impressive though elevated instability. A few thunderstorms
became severe and even supercellular, with a few reports of hail
to up 1.5" in diameter being received.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of North TX
this afternoon as the 850 mb cold front remains stretched across
the region. These thunderstorms will shift south and east later
this afternoon, impacting East TX. The combination of the
continuing precipitation, dense cloud cover, and cold air
advection will also keep high temperatures in the 60s for most of
the region. To put this in perspective, the forecast highs for
today are more in line with the normal lows for the second week of
May. Despite this, the record low max of 57 F at DFW and 63 F at
Waco have both already been topped, so while cool, not
unprecedented.

A brief break in precipitation is expected overnight tonight as
upper-level heights rise slightly in the wake of the departing
shortwave trough. Some patchy light drizzle and showers may
continue, but heavy rain and thunderstorms are not generally
expected until Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, the next
embedded shortwave trough will approach the region, kicking off
another round of precipitation which is expected to be much more
widespread. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase from west
to east through the day. There is some uncertainty on how
widespread and continuing precipitation will be, but almost
everyone should see precipitation at some point in the day. The
heaviest rainfall amounts are expected to be across southeastern
portions of the FWD CWA near the surface front. Widespread
rainfall accumulations of 2-4 inches will be possible in these
areas. While heavy rainfall is not expected to be widespread
enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, some localized flooding may
be possible, as well as some minor river flooding within the
Trinity and Neches basins.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday night Through Next Weekend/

Another cold front arrives in late Tuesday afternoon and night
period across the area, as a strong mid level impulse moves
gradually to the south and east of the CWA through Wednesday
morning. This will continue the highest rain chances across
Central and East Texas, while continuing the well below normal and
wet conditions. I did begin to undercut the NBM PoPs gradually
after midnight and through Wednesday, as the CWA begins to
experience gradually increasing mass subsidence aloft. I
maintained lower thunderstorm possibilities versus actual PoPs, as
enough MUCAPE and steep enough lapse rates linger to allow for
some discharge potential above the cool near surface frontal
layer. Though the potential for localized heavy rainfall and an
isolated flood threat continue Tuesday evening, I expect the
heavier convective rainfall to begin shifting toward the Texas
Coast and the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we move into early
Wednesday. Little diurnal range between low and high temperatures
Wednesday are expected to continue as low level cold advection
and expansive cloud cover keep temperatures from responding.
Continuing cloud cover from weak isentropic low level ascent over
the shallow frontal boundary and light northeast winds will likely
keep things cool and moist Wednesday night. Decreasing clouds and
increasing insolation on Thursday should allow for a gradual
modification of the airmass and a warm up back into upper 60s to
mid 70s on Thursday. This will be the transition day and likely
the trickiest day to forecast temperatures, as temperatures could
be warmer, or cooler if cloud cover decreases more or less than
currently depicted in the forecast.

Increasing ridging aloft across the Western U.S. and Rockies will
bring a drier northwest flow regime across North and Central
Texas by Friday. Shortwave ridging then takes hold for much of the
weekend, before breaking down in response to a lead shortwave
transiting the area well in advance of an organizing and
strengthening trough over the Great Basin well to the west. At the
surface, strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the Central High
Plains will bring gusty southerly surface winds and moisture
return back northward across the area moving into next weekend.
This will also bring the humidity back northward, as well as more
seasonable temperatures indicative of mid-May around here. Lows in
the 60s and humid highs in the 80s will make their return.

Though low convective chances increase late Saturday and into
Sunday, it doesn't appear severe weather will be a major issue
due to a strengthening elevated mixed layer/capping inversion
across the area. The more established severe weather threat
appears to be confined across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle
in the vicinity of an established surface dryline, hotter
temperatures likely in the 90s, and strong instability that
correlate with increasingly divergent mid level flow over that
area. Deterministic models want to cut off and deepen the energy
across the Desert Southwest and Northwest Mexico early next week,
while ensembles prefer a deep, but slow-moving open trough that
brings off and on convective chances to the Southern Plains. As is
usually the case with deep, southern latitude systems, finer
details and and potential for more significant weather will likely
iron themselves out with time.

05/

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1243 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR with occasional IFR continues this morning. CIGs should
remain at low-end MVFR thru the rest of the day, with prevailing
IFR likely by 04Z. SHRA will continue in the vicinity of all TAF
sites through the next 24-30 hours, becoming more numerous after
12Z Tuesday. A few TS will also be possible, particularly during
the morning and afternoon hours Tuesday. IFR will continue through
much of Tuesday, with brief LIFR possible during the morning
hours. Winds will remain from the NE at 8-12 KT, with gusty and
erratic winds possible near stronger TS.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  63  57  67  56 /  60  90  60  30  10
Waco                59  68  59  67  56 /  60  90  70  40  10
Paris               54  60  54  65  51 /  70  90  60  20  10
Denton              55  62  55  66  53 /  50  90  50  30  10
McKinney            55  62  55  66  53 /  70  90  60  30  10
Dallas              58  64  57  68  56 /  60  90  60  30  10
Terrell             56  64  56  66  53 /  60  90  70  30  10
Corsicana           59  67  58  67  56 /  60  90  70  40  10
Temple              60  69  59  67  57 /  50  90  70  50  10
Mineral Wells       53  62  55  65  54 /  60  90  50  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             1 WSW BELLS             33.61N 96.43W
05/10/2021  E1.25 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL NEAR
            BELLS.

&&

JH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
351 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXZ093-094-102145-
Grayson TX-Fannin TX-
351 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON AND CENTRAL
FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tom Bean, or near Sherman, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Bonham, Van Alstyne, Howe, Whitewright, Bells, Tom Bean,
Savoy, Ector, Dodd City, Ravenna, Bonham State Park, Windom and
Luella.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9661 3361 9665 3377 9599 3347 9593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 257DEG 29KT 3354 9654

Stalley

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