Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The short term forecast remains on track based on observations and
latest short term model guidance. I did nudged high temperatures
downward given the continues northeasterly surface winds and
widespread cloud cover expected to grip most of the region today.
The diurnal temperature range will not be very large today---unless
we get large breaks in the cloud shield---and it's probable that
temperatures may only climb a few degrees higher than what is
currently observed.

Bain

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

Convection has dwindled early this morning as our slow moving
front has sloshed toward the US HWY 79 corridor. Latest model
guidance and observational trends suggest that it'll continue to
slip southward through the pre-dawn hours and then exit the CWA
by at least 12 UTC. Winds atop the frontal surface have already
become southerly and this is evidenced by the increase in stratus
across our area over the last 1-2 hours. Lift is expected to
remain meager overnight and PoPs have been capped at around 20
percent. While I do not anticipate a widespread severe weather
threat, we'll have to keep an eye on updrafts that can accelerate
into the mid-troposphere as MUCAPEs south of I-20 are in excess
of 1500 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates are around 7-7.5 C/km and
0-6km bulk wind differences are in excess of 40 knots. This
equates to a favorable shear-instability parameter space capable
of large hail through Monday morning.

Sunrise Monday will feature increasing rain/storm chances from
west to east across the FA as a ribbon of stronger isentropic
upglide commences. This ribbon of ascent will shift to the east
with the greatest PoPs around the noontime hour being east of I-35
and north of I-30. I cannot rule out that there may be a brief
lull in precipitation from noon into the mid-afternoon hours with
just clouds and perhaps some patchy drizzle. Again, there will be
favorable kinematics and thermodynamics to support a large hail
risk if convection really takes off.

Tonight into Tuesday will feature renewed isentropic lift from the
Hill Country and PoPs between 40 and 60 percent have been retained
in the latest forecast cycle. At present time, it does appear that
the greatest overlap between moisture and isentropic lift will be
near and north of a Stephenville to Palestine line. Shear and
instability will favor a large hail risk with the most robust
convection, but there's still a large amount of uncertainty with
regard to the exact evolution of convective elements. By Tuesday
morning, I anticipate that we'll have our greatest chance for
widespread rainfall given the pronounced/deeper isentropic ascent.
The greatest rain chances will be west of I-35 initially with
rain/storm chances increase for the rest of the area through the
afternoon hours. Depending on just how much rain accumulates prior
to Tuesday afternoon, there could be the need for some flood
headlines. We will examine this closer this morning and today.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/
/Tuesday night through next Sunday/

By Tuesday night, most of the widespread precipitation will shift to
the southeast as the main area of mid-level ascent exits our
region. Lighter rain should continue through Wednesday due to weak
isentropic lift but plenty of moisture still in place. Coverage
will remain fairly scattered, with the greatest precip chances
(40-50%) across Central TX. Guidance suggest some elevated
instability that would at least support some thunder across our
region. While not everyone will see precipitation on Wednesday,
the cloudy skies will persist through most of the day keeping the
highs again in the mid to upper 60s.

Precipitation chances are expected to end Wednesday night and dry
weather will prevail the rest of the week. Temperatures will
slowly warm up as surface high pressure moves eastward.
Thursday's temps will still be on the cool side because of the
northerly component of the winds, with morning lows in the 50s and
highs in the 70s with lots of sunshine. Expect near normal
temperatures and breezy conditions by next weekend. We continue to
show a low chance for showers/storms for parts of the area next
weekend as a couple of disturbances move across the Southern
Plains. While most extended guidance places the next upper trough
across the western U.S. over the weekend, there's still some
expected uncertainty regarding its timing and progression.
Precipitation chances will continue to be adjusted over this week
as confidence increases.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Ceiling trends and convective potential.

MVFR has inundated all TAF sites and confidence is high that most
of the 12 UTC forecast period will see non-VFR cigs, but there
will likely be periods where conditions improve to VFR (this
afternoon) as well as times in which cigs will deteriorate and
fall into the IFR category (tonight). Cloud bases should lower
down to below 2,000 feet at Metroplex TAFs in the next 1-3 hours.
Lift will be episodic in nature through the entire TAF cycle
resulting in a risk for SHRA and/or TSRA. At present time, it
looks like the *best* lift will be after 00 UTC Tuesday and I've
relegated VCTS to this time period. As the lower levels continue
to saturate, prolonged IFR appears probable late this evening and
through the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. Another opportunity for
VCTS presents itself mid-morning Tuesday and this has been
inserted in the extended D/FW TAF.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  58  67  57  67 /  30  60  90  60  30
Waco                70  60  70  59  67 /  20  50  90  70  40
Paris               62  55  61  54  65 /  40  60  80  60  20
Denton              64  56  65  55  66 /  30  60  80  50  30
McKinney            65  56  64  55  66 /  30  60  80  60  30
Dallas              69  58  67  57  68 /  30  60  90  60  30
Terrell             67  57  65  56  66 /  30  60  90  70  30
Corsicana           69  59  70  58  67 /  20  60  90  70  40
Temple              72  61  73  59  67 /  30  50  90  70  50
Mineral Wells       65  56  66  55  65 /  20  60  80  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111045-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
536 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
There is a risk for isolated storms today across most of North and
Central Texas. While widespread severe weather is not expected at
this time, some of the stronger storms may produce hail. Brief heavy
rain may also result in minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday. While the
severe weather threat will be low, heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding will be possible across parts of Central Texas. Some rivers
may also experience minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Bain

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1029 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 AM     HAIL             3 N SADLER              33.73N 96.85W
05/10/2021  U1.25 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.) SIZE
            HAIL NEAR SADLER.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             3 ESE DENISON           33.73N 96.51W
05/10/2021  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
            DENISON.

&&

JH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1103 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXZ094-105-101645-
Hunt TX-Fannin TX-
1103 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUNT AND SOUTHEASTERN
FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1103 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bailey, or 13 miles south of Bonham, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Commerce, Leonard, Wolfe City, Celeste, Bailey, Ladonia and Pecan
Gap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 9586 3322 9586 3331 9628 3352 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 279DEG 19KT 3339 9618

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     HAIL             1 WSW BELLS             33.61N 96.43W
05/10/2021  E1.50 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IN
            BELL.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             1 WSW BELLS             33.61N 96.43W
05/10/2021  E1.25 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL NEAR
            BELLS.

&&

JH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>