Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Fort Worth, TX

319 
WWUS54 KFWD 092309
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
609 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

TXC001-161-092318-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-210509T2315Z/
Freestone TX-Anderson TX-
609 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREESTONE AND
CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire. However gusty winds and heavy rain are still
possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3171 9551 3163 9572 3165 9574 3165 9575
      3162 9575 3161 9578 3162 9579 3155 9592
      3145 9620 3160 9630 3197 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 249DEG 41KT 3172 9569 

$$

Prater

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
300 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1201 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/
/This Afternoon Through Monday Night/

Morning surface analysis shows a cold front bisecting North Texas
along a line from near Comanche to Fort Worth to Bonham. Visible
satellite imagery shows this boundary well as a fine line of cloud
cover steadily advancing southward. Ahead of the front, a moisture
rich boundary layer is in place with surface dewpoints in the
lower 70s. This boundary layer was sampled well by an aircraft
sounding about an hour ago, showing the moisture depth to around
800 mb and a significantly weaker capping inversion than was
sampled on the 12Z FWD raob. Above the capping, a plume of >9 C/km
lapse rates were observed. This environment will become
increasingly unstable into the afternoon as we continue to heat
into the 80s with peeks of sunshine now apparent south of the
boundary. As the front continues southward during peak heating,
thunderstorms should erupt somewhere in the vicinity of a
Hillsboro to Ennis to Canton line initially between 3-5 pm, and
expand southwestward into the evening hours as the front continues
southward. Areas east of I-35 and south of I-20 are under the
greatest threat for severe weather. Low level winds will weaken
with the approach of the cold front and the overall tornado threat
should be low, however, given the strong instability and perhaps
a remnant boundary from earlier convection across the south, we'll
have to keep an eye on locally enhanced areas of vorticity that
could raise the threat in a few locations across our far
southeastern counties. Otherwise, deep layer shear will be
sufficient for organized severe weather with primarily a very
large hail threat and damaging wind threat.

Thunderstorm chances will diminish late tonight as the front moves
into Central Texas. Unseasonably cool air will filter in behind
the front with low temperatures dropping into the lower 50s in the
northwest to lower 60s in the southeast. Cloud cover will
overspread the region late tonight atop the cooler airmass and
Monday will be a very cool day by May standards. Highs will range
from the lower 60s in the north to lower 70s in the south. Warm
advection will increase late in the day and rain/storm chances
will overspread the region once again, especially by Monday night
where widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms will occur.
Steep lapse rates will support a low end hail threat with any
convection Monday evening and overnight, but the overall severe
weather threat will be significantly lower than today.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday onward/

A slow-moving upper-level trough will continue to amplify across
the interior CONUS over the next few days. At the present time, a
cold front is moving south across North TX. This cold front is
forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast by late Monday. While the
FWD CWA will be north of the surface front, the 850 mb front will
be stretched across Central TX through Wednesday. This will act
as a focus for widespread shower/thunderstorm development as
isentropic ascent continues near this front as southwest flow
continues above the surface front. The transport of Pacific
moisture in the mid levels of the troposphere will allow PWAT
values to climb to near climatological maximum values for mid-May.
This will support the potential for heavy rainfall near where the
850 mb stationary front becomes established. Right now, it
appears this is most likely to occur somewhere over Central TX.

Forecast event-total QPF (i.e., today through Wednesday) across
Central TX looks likely to be in the 3-5" range. This would almost
certainly require a Flash Flood Watch for parts of Central TX if
the forecast were to hold, but after coordination with neighboring
WFOs, we will wait and see how much rainfall occurs today before
making the decision on a watch for the rainfall forecast for
Monday and Tuesday, as the greater threat for flash flooding looks
to be on Tuesday. In addition to the flash flood potential, per
coordination with WGRFC, there will also be a potential for minor
flooding within the Neches and Trinity basins.

Rainfall chances will begin to decrease by late Wednesday and into
Thursday as the upper-level trough axis passes to our east and
ridging builds in the West. The next upper-level trough will dig
into the Pacific Northwest by the end of the week, leading to
robust return flow across the south central CONUS, bringing a
warming trend and allowing temperatures to return to near normal
values.

Godwin

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1201 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

The cold front is moving through the Metroplex now and we'll start
the TAFs off with north flow, although it may be just a tad beyond
18Z at DAL/GKY. VFR cigs may prevail for a few hours before
scattering out this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop just to the southeast of the major airports and will
likely significantly impact the Cedar Creek arrival sector through
evening. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will likely overspread the region
again tonight and continue through Monday with increasing
rain/storm chances Monday afternoon and especially Monday night.

At Waco, VFR cigs will prevail through the afternoon, but TS
chances will increase from 22Z to 02Z and we'll continue with
VCTS in the TAF during this time with a TEMPO TSRA between 23Z and
01Z. North flow will prevail behind the front late this afternoon.
MVFR cigs will again spread over the region tonight and continue
through Monday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  67  58  67  57 /  10  30  60  80  60
Waco                64  72  61  71  59 /  30  20  60  90  70
Paris               55  64  54  62  54 /  10  40  60  80  60
Denton              53  65  56  65  54 /   5  40  60  80  60
McKinney            55  67  56  65  55 /  10  40  60  80  60
Dallas              59  68  59  68  58 /  10  30  60  80  60
Terrell             58  70  56  67  56 /  20  40  70  80  70
Corsicana           62  71  59  70  59 /  40  30  70  90  70
Temple              64  74  62  73  59 /  40  20  60  90  70
Mineral Wells       54  64  54  65  54 /   5  30  60  80  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
300 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
300 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Thunderstorm chances will increase through the evening hours, with
the greatest chances across Central and East Texas. Some
thunderstorms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds being
the main threats. A few isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue on Monday and Tuesday. While the
severe weather threat will be low, heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding will be possible across parts of Central Texas. Some rivers
may also experience minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely this evening south of Interstate 20.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     HAIL             5 S AQUILLA             31.79N 97.23W
05/09/2021  U1.00 INCH       HILL               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             WEST                    31.80N 97.09W
05/09/2021  U1.00 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   PUBLIC

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
505 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             MOUNT CALM              31.76N 96.88W
05/09/2021  U0.75 INCH       HILL               TX   PUBLIC

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW MEXIA              31.64N 96.51W
05/09/2021  M60 MPH          LIMESTONE          TX   AWOS

            MEXIA (LIMESTONE COUNTY AIRPORT) AWOS
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

DH