Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
316 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of Today and Tuesday/

To the surprise of absolutely no one, the main topic of the short
term forecast period continues to be the potential for additional
showers and thunderstorms over the next 24-36 hours. Latest water
vapor satellite and radar imagery shows the remnants of a weak
upper low lifting northward along the I-35 corridor, seen as a
cluster of vigorous convection migrating northward through the
region. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to traverse the region through the remainder of the afternoon and
into the early evening before decreasing in coverage later
tonight. While flooding will be the main hazard with today's
activity, steepening lapse rates ahead of the upper low may
support a few stronger storms with small hail and strong wind
gusts in the more robust convection.

The morning sounding from Fort Worth shows a very moist profile
with a sample PWAT values of 1.79". As the upper low moves north
over the area, any showers/storms that develop will be efficient
rain producers. The 12Z HREF ensemble mean through 00Z Tuesday is
showing the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall today.
Alternatively the 12Z HREF ensemble max is showing totals as much
as 2 to 5 inches in pockets across North and Central Texas,
hinting at the potential for locally higher amounts. Concentrated
areas of heavier rain will likely lead to minor flooding of low-
lying and flood prone areas as well as flash flooding where cell
training occurs. With shower and storms still ongoing during the
afternoon commute in many areas, this is your reminder to exercise
caution if you will be out on the roads and never drive through
flooded roadways or cross any road barriers.

As mentioned above, rain chances are expected to decline after
sunset as the influence of this morning's disturbance exits to the
north. The lull in showers/storms may only be brief as high
resolution models are in general agreement concerning the
potential for a storm complex, developing from West Texas dryline
convection, to approach the western border of our forecast area
after midnight. Scattered showers and storms are possible through
Tuesday as this gradually weakening complex progresses eastward.
The overall severe potential will likely be low, but gusty winds
and small hail may be possible with the stronger cells.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 136 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021/
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/
Additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist
through the long-term portion of the forecast as we remain in a
period of active weather. While it won’t be a total washout, it
would be wise to keep an umbrella handy for the next several days.

A series of slow-moving shortwaves coupled with a dryline across
West Texas will keep rain chances in the forecast through the
end of the week. Tuesday night, any storms that fire along a
dryline to our west earlier in the day will attempt to make a run
at our western border. However, confidence is low in whether or
not these storms will make it into our western zones before
dissipating. These storms shouldn't pose a severe weather threat,
but gusty outflow winds may be possible as they decay. On
Wednesday, an exiting disturbance should generally keep chances
for showers and thunderstorms near and east of I-35. Even with
decent instability in place, weak bulk shear values should limit
any threat for severe weather.

A mostly rain-free day is expected to occur across the forecast
area on Thursday, with warm temperatures and even a few peeks of
sunshine possible. However, it's likely another round of storms
will develop Thursday evening from the dryline in West Texas
northeast into Oklahoma as another shortwave moves across the
area. Friday and through the weekend, passing shortwaves embedded
in northwest flow aloft will create an ideal set up for nocturnal
MCSs each day. As is normally the case, models are likely handling
the evolution of these complexes poorly; therefore, some
adjustments in PoPs will more than likely occur over the next few
days.

Drier weather may be on the horizon as a mid-level ridge will
attempt to build into the region early next week. For now, low
PoPs have been maintained near and along the Red River for the
first half of the week as a couple additional complexes of storms
in Oklahoma may clip our northern counties. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally remain in the 80s to low 90s through
the middle of next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18 UTC TAF Period/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR ceilings with showers and thunderstorms
throughout the TAF period.

MVFR/IFR ceilings and southeast winds prevail as showers and
thunderstorms push northward across the region today. Showers may
bring TEMPO reductions to vsbys, lower cigs, and occasional
lightning strikes at area airports through the afternoon. Cigs
should return to VFR by 23Z at Metroplex terminals and 21Z at
Waco. There will likely be a break in the rain starting around
02-03Z before a complex of thunderstorms moves into the region
from the west, with additional showers likely spreading across the
region before daybreak Tuesday. A return to MVFR cigs is expected
later tonight into Tuesday morning.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  84  71  86  72 /  40  50  20  10   0
Waco                69  82  71  85  71 /  30  60  20  10   0
Paris               67  80  69  83  70 /  70  70  20  30   5
Denton              67  82  69  86  70 /  40  50  20  20   5
McKinney            68  82  70  86  71 /  50  50  20  20   5
Dallas              70  84  72  87  74 /  40  50  20  10   0
Terrell             68  82  69  87  71 /  60  60  20  20   0
Corsicana           69  83  71  85  71 /  50  70  20  20   0
Temple              68  82  69  84  70 /  30  50  20  10   0
Mineral Wells       67  84  69  85  69 /  20  50  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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