Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 13, 2021, 2:24 PM MST for Apache County, Arizona. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2021, 2:24 PM MST (21:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 13, 2021, 2:45 PM MST
- In force
- 21 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Hail
- 0.50 in
- Wind
- 40
County Apache County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 191 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -175 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1713 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 8 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 13, 1:30 PM MST, 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 13, 1:30 PM MST, 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 130 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue for much of the next week, especially in the high terrain and south of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures warm slightly over the weekend, before cooling off again towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop this afternoon over the high terrain along the Mogollon Rim and in the northeast. Coverages is expected to continue to increase as the afternoon progresses and into the evening hours. Hi-res guidance continues to show activity become more organized, with outflow from storms now supporting MCS develop once they move into the more unstable air mass over central Arizona. Heavy rainfall will be the primary threat, with flash flooding possible over Yavapai and Gila counties through tonight. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible, with strong gusty winds and hail. Much of the activity is expected to diminish by midnight, with only a few lingering showers possible through the rest of the overnight. Saturday, heights begin to rise as a ridge over the the intermountain west begins to build through the weekend. Temperatures warm slightly over the weekend as a result, as well as reduced precipitation coverage and potential. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat, but will mainly be limited to the high terrain along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized flash flooding from heavy rainfall will continue to remain a threat with any storm that develops. Heights begin to fall Monday as the high begins to slowly meander westward becoming centered over California/Nevada and degrading. Towards the middle of next week, a longwave trough begins to dig into the West Coast and moving eastward across the intermountain west through the week. Uncertainty still exists in the timing and how far south the trough will reach, so confidence in what implications that will have for next is still low at this point. Nevertheless, EPS and GEFS ensemble members do signal that moisture will remain in place over much of northern Arizona start during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Primarily VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms continue mainly south and west of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line through around 06Z. A few lingering showers will be possible thereafter. Storms develop again after 19Z Sat, mainly in the high terrain. Brief MVFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds and hail will be possible in and around thunderstorms. Winds will otherwise remain light through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Continued afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for the weekend. Greatest coverage will be over the high terrain and areas south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized flash flooding from heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard. Warming temperatures along with light winds are otherwise expected. Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool slightly. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR AZZ008-018-037-038. && PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 1:47 PM MST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
147 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021
AZZ018-132115-
Northern Gila County-
147 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila County
near Payson through 215 PM MST...
At 145 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Star Valley, or near Payson, moving southwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Payson, Star Valley and Round Valley.
This includes the following highways...
State Route 260 between mile markers 252 and 263.
State Route 87 southbound between mile markers 250 and 251.
State Route 87 between mile markers 250 and 253.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3432 11122 3426 11111 3413 11122 3422 11137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 035DEG 8KT 3426 11122
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JJSpecial weather statement, Aug 13, 2:16 PM MST, 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
216 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021
AZZ018-132145-
Northern Gila County-
216 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila County
between Payson and Gisela through 245 PM MST...
At 214 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Gisela, or 8 miles southeast of Payson, moving
southwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Gisela.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3423 11124 3417 11112 3402 11119 3409 11135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 023DEG 13KT 3416 11121
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JJSpecial weather statement, Aug 13, 2:24 PM MST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
324 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
AZZ010-011-040-132145-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-Chinle Valley-
324 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Apache County near
Ganado through 345 PM MDT...
At 322 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ganado moving southwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cornfields Chapter House, Hubbell Trading Post National Historic Site
and Ganado.
This includes the following highways...
State Route 264 between mile markers 446 and 449.
Highway 191 between mile markers 401 and 411.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3574 10951 3564 10942 3549 10962 3566 10975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 053DEG 12KT 3567 10953
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JJThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 8:58 AM MST | Flash Flood Watch | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Yavapai | 17 hr |
| Aug 13, 1:47 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 28 min | |
| Aug 13, 2:16 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Gila | 29 min |
| Aug 13, 2:35 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 25 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.