Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

327 
WGUS65 KFGZ 140203
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
703 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

AZZ008-018-037-038-140900-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210814T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai County Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys
and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
Including the cities of Seligman, Ash Fork, Bagdad, Young, Payson, 
Strawberry, Camp Verde, Cottonwood, Prescott, Cordes Junction, and 
Sedona
703 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Arizona, including, northern Gila County, Oak 
  Creek and Sycamore Canyons and all of Yavapai County.

* Until 2 AM MST Saturday.

* Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over higher terrain and 
  moving toward the southwest into Yavapai and Gila counties this 
  evening. This activity could persist into the late night hours. 
  Storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall that could 
  lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NL

140 
WGUS65 KFGZ 140854
FFAFGZ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
154 AM MST Sat Aug 14 2021

AZZ008-018-037-038-141000-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210814T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai County Mountains-Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys
and Basins-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
Including the cities of Seligman, Ash Fork, Bagdad, Young, Payson, 
Strawberry, Camp Verde, Cottonwood, Prescott, Cordes Junction, and 
Sedona
154 AM MST Sat Aug 14 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central Arizona and west 
central Arizona, including the following areas, in east central 
Arizona, Northern Gila County. In west central Arizona, Oak Creek 
and Sycamore Canyons, Yavapai County Mountains and Yavapai County 
Valleys and Basins will expire at 2 AM MST early this morning.

Heavy rain has moved out of the region with areas of light rain 
expected to continue through early this morning. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures and use caution near any creeks and streams that may 
be running high this morning.

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 AM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The active monsoon pattern will continue for the next
week. Scattered storms are expected each day, mostly south of I-40
where there is more moisture in place. A ridge building over the
Great Basin will warm our temperatures a few degrees heading into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A wave of light to moderate showers have moved
across north central Arizona overnight. Amounts have been mostly
light and beneficial. It appears that showers will diminish over
the next 1-2 hours with a bit of a break in activity by sunrise.

An uncertainty in the forecast from the morning forward remains
to be the morning cloud cover and it's effect on afternoon
destabilization for thunderstorm redevelopment. Looking at
forecast soundings, it appears that mid level cloud cover could
remain into the early morning across much of the area. Anywhere
that can see a break in the cloud cover will benefit from daytime
heating and likely build instability into the afternoon. Overall,
a late start to convection is expected for Friday. By late
afternoon, scattered showers and storms should form along the high
terrain and descend into the lower elevations. For Friday, this
will be a bit more focused on the eastern Mogollon Rim. Certainly,
flash flooding looks to be the primary hazard should this unfold
as hi- res guidance is suggesting. If we do see an organized MCS
form, it appears that showers and storms could linger into the
early evening. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible threats
as well.

For the weekend, expect continued daily thunderstorm chances each
day, mainly along and south of I-40. Temperatures will warm as the
southwest high continues to strengthen before heights decrease
early next week with a longwave trough moving by to our north.
Previous model runs had visions of a deeper trough which would
have meant an uptick in moisture and thunderstorm coverage. This
idea seems to have faded for now. Confidence remains low with
plenty of time left for the forecast to shift. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will continue into the morning, most numerous along and south of a
KFLG-KSJN line. VFR conditions away from storms. After 18Z,
thunderstorm activity will be on the increase becoming numerous
along and south of a KGCN-KSOW line, isolated to the north. Wind
gusts to 45 mph in the vicinity of storms. Otherwise, light winds.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and storms will develop Friday
and Saturday afternoon, with the best chance for precipitation along
and south of the Mogollon Rim. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing flash flooding, particularly over central and eastern
Arizona. Temperatures will increase a couple degrees.

Sunday through Tuesday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
continue into early next week. Flash flooding will be a threat each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...Kobold
FIRE WEATHER...Kobold

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff