Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
922 AM MST Sun Aug 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected again
today with lessening chances Monday. A drying and warming trend is
anticipated for Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure
strengthens over the area.

&&

.UPDATE...Very few changes were made to the short term forecast
this morning. Another round of scattered thunderstorms is forecast
this afternoon with storms moving slowly to the north throughout
the day. A few areas of flash flooding are possible where stronger
and/or training storms develop. Storm coverage should decrease by
late this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /225 AM MST/...Quiet weather across the area this
morning aside from a few lingering showers in northeast Arizona.
Precipitable water values remain similar to what we saw on
Saturday. Therefore, expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, developing between 10 am - noon initially along the
higher terrain. Storms will continue through the afternoon and
early evening hours. The primary hazard will remain heavy rainfall
capable of producing localized flash flooding. Convection could
persist into the mid to late evening hours across northeast
Arizona before diminishing overnight.

High pressure begins to strengthen over the Desert Southwest on
Monday which will act to suppress storm activity. This will
continue Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure remains
overhead. At best, isolated coverage is expected on these days and
mainly in the White Mountains region. This looks to be the first
significant break in the monsoon that we have seen in the past few
weeks. With the strengthening high pressure and less cloud cover,
we will see daytime temperatures warm to around 5 degrees above
normal by mid-week. Make sure to prepare for the warmer
temperatures if you have outdoor plans.

Ensemble guidance indicates moisture will likely increase again
Friday into the weekend. At this time, it does not look like a
significant moisture surge but enough to bring back isolated to
scattered showers and storms each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Mainly VFR conditions will
prevail. Scattered storms will develop again this afternoon and
evening, mainly along and north of a KPRC-KPAN-KJTC line. Periods
of MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will occur in and
around thunderstorms. Storm activity will gradually diminish in
the mid to late evening hours. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Another round of scattered storms is expected
today with more coverage likely for areas along the Mogollon Rim
and eastward. Lesser storm coverage is expected Monday. Light
winds are forecast outside of thunderstorm activity.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect a drying and warming trend with
minimal thunderstorm coverage each afternoon. Seasonal winds
anticipated during this time.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT/TPS
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
108 PM MST Sun Aug 1 2021

AZZ008-037-012030-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
108 PM MST Sun Aug 1 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS BUMBLE BEE
UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 105 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bumble Bee, or 19 miles north of New River. This storm was moving
east at 5 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bumble Bee.
I-17 between Black Canyon City and Sunset Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 11227 3429 11223 3427 11207 3409 11210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 288DEG 4KT 3420 11221

TM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
214 PM MDT Sun Aug 1 2021

AZZ010-039-012045-
Black Mesa Area-Chinle Valley-
214 PM MDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A LINE OF STORMS FROM TSEGI TO CHILCHINBITO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS KAYENTA UNTIL 245 PM NAVAJO NATION TIME...

At 213 PM Navajo Nation time, Doppler radar was tracking a line of
strong thunderstorms from Tsegi to near Chilchinbito. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tsegi, Chilchinbito, and Kayenta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 11041 3657 10985 3640 11005 3664 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 208DEG 9KT 3666 11039 3648 11007

TM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
303 PM MDT Sun Aug 1 2021

AZZ012-013-012130-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Little Colorado River
Valley in Navajo County-
303 PM MDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WINSLOW AREA
UNTIL 230 PM ARIZONA TIME...

At 202 PM Arizona time, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Winslow, moving north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winslow.
I-40 near Winslow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 11074 3498 11091 3522 11087 3519 11061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 197DEG 11KT 3504 11079

TM